Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday, March 26.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Thursday, I preview Twins-Orioles, Diamondbacks-Dodgers, and Guardians-Mariners.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and expert picks for Thursday.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks for Opening Day — Thursday, March 26
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- Angels/Astros, Under 8.5 (-115, Risk 1u), ScoreBet, be to 8 (-105)
- Diamondbacks/Dodgers, Over 8.5 (-120, Risk 1u), Fanatics, bet to 9 (-115)
- Guardians/Mariners, Under 6.5 (+102, 1u), DraftKings, bet to -105
- Minnesota Twins (+130, 1u), BetMGM, bet to +115
- Nationals/Cubs, Under 8.5 (-125, Risk 1u), ScoreBet, bet to 7.5 (-110)
- Parlay (+159, 0.33u): Red Sox F5 (-170) & Tigers F5 (-160), Caesars; parlay to -200 and -165
- Pirates/Mets, Over 6.5 (-120, Risk 1u), Fanatics, bet to 7 (-108)
- Twins/Orioles, Over 8 (-110, Risk 1u), DraftKings, bet to 8.5 (-115)
- White Sox/Brewers, Under 8.5 (-115, Risk 1u), BetMGM, bet to 7.5 (+100)
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-115, 0.2u), BetMGM, bet to 15.5 (+100)
Twins vs. Orioles Picks
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | +118 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | -138 |
The Twins are my lone projected moneyline edge for Thursday's opening day slate, and I also show value on the Over in this contest.
Baltimore opened closer to -165 (62.3% implied), with the Twins near +140 on March 16, but the line quickly shortened to +130, and has continued to move toward my projected price for this game. Baltimore has lost more than five percent in implied win probability, now sitting at -135 (57.5%)
The Orioles were among the most active teams this offseason, and no other club saw a more significant increase in its projected win total from market open to opening day (from 76.5 to 85.5 wins).
Still, these teams performed comparably in 2025 (70 wins for Minnesota, but 71 Pythagorean wins and 75 Baseruns wins; 75 wins for Baltimore, but 70 expected wins per Pythag and Baseruns), and the gap between their 2026 opening-day rosters isn't as wide as the anticipated gap after the trade deadline.
Minnesota still has a lot of offensive talent in their lineup, particularly against left-handed pitching (Byron Buxton, Josh Bell, Luke Keaschall, Royce Lewis, and Ryan Jeffers all project >116 wRC+ against southpaws), and Joe Ryan (projected 3.70 weighted FIP) ranks as the better starting pitcher than Trevor Rogers (projected 4.24).
Rogers (1.81 ERA in 18 starts) has the better 2025 season, but their underlying 2025 metrics (3.40 xERA, 3.64 xFIP, 17.5% K-BB% for Rogers; 3.43 xERA, 2.74 xFIP, 22.5% K-BB%) are closer than their 2026 projections would indicate. Stuff models (108 to 100) favor Ryan, but botERA says they are both around 3.50 ERA arms.
Baltimore's lineup is both deeper and better (average 112 wRC+ vs. righties vs. a 107 vs. lefties for Minnesota), but the relief pitchers are comparable; the top five to six arms in either bullpen project for a near 4.00 FIP on average. This Twins unit should be much better than the group that finished 28th (4.56 FIP) in the second half of 25.
The weather could play a significant part in this game, with 12 mph winds blowing out to right-center at Camden Yards.
The weather conditions also triggered a BetLabs Overs system that has generated a 4.8% ROI since 2005.
The total did come down from 8.5 to 8, but I would buy the Over back to 8.5 (-115), and take the underdog down to +115.
Pick: Twins +120 (ScoreBet) | Over 8, -115 (Fanatics)
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Picks
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +100 | 9 -102o / -120u | +215 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -120 | 9 -102o / -120u | -260 |
While the wind isn't as strong in Los Angeles (5-7 mph) as it will be in Baltimore on Thursday afternoon, warm weather (78 degrees at first pitch) should give a slight boost to the hitters in this NL West opener.
The Dodgers truly have an all-star caliber lineup; they project for a 126 wRC+ against right-handed pitching; the best offenses in baseball typically don't surpass 120, or 20% better than league average, in any season. Adding Kyle Tucker (projected 146 wRC+ against righties) alongside Shohei Ohtani (170), Freddie Freeman (138), and Max Muncy (125) is a brutal combination for any right-handed starter, but Zac Gallen also showed a notable split issue in 2026 (3.80 xFIP, 16.2% K-BB% vs. righties; 4.46 xFIP, 10.5% K-BB% vs. lefties); although his career splits are far more neutral.
One notable difference about the 2026 Dodgers is that, unlike prior iterations of this dynasty, this lineup projects below-average defensively, which should give opposing offenses additional scoring opportunities when their strikeout-driven pitchers permit balls in play.
Arizona is the much more athletic team and the better defensive unit, but about one-third of their defensive value is tied to the pitch-framing abilities of catcher Gabriel Moreno. I remain cautious of the value of plus pitch-framing catchers in the ABS era.
Still, while their lineup (particularly the back half) should function better against lefties than righties, there is enough offensive talent atop the order to project as an above-average (101 wRC+ in the second-half of 2025 after trading away Eugenio Suarez and Josh Naylor) if not upper-tier offensive group.
Beyond Edwin Diaz, the Dodgers' bullpen remains relatively shaky, and the Diamondbacks aren't trotting out much stronger pitchers than the group who finished 27th (4.51 xFIP) after the trade deadline last season.
I also don't expect a high pitch count for Yoshinobu Yamamoto – the Dodgers will likely handle him with extreme care this season, following his postseason heroics, and pitching on no rest to secure World Series MVP honors. He tossed 68 pitches in his final spring tuneup, and I'd anticipate 80 pitches or fewer on Thursday; take Under 15.5 Outs at even money or better.
Pick: Over 9, +100 (Fanatics) | Yoshinobu Yamamoto Under 16.5 Outs Recorded, -115 (BetMGM)
Guardians vs. Mariners Picks
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 7 -100o / -122u | +158 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 7 -100o / -122u | -188 |
Check out my projections for the entire slate in our Projections Hub.
The Mariners are just out of range as a potential moneyline bet for me on opening day; I would consider playing Seattle – my projected AL Pennant winner – at -170 (63% implied) or better, as they embark on their first divisional title defense in 24 years.
Conditions for their opening game should be particularly brutal – with temperatures down into the 40s shortly after first pitch – and while the stadium has a retractable roof, it's mostly there to block rain; cooler temperatures in Seattle have a drastic effect on the run scoring environment.
Batters also seem to struggle with the batter's eye at T-Mobile, which typically has the highest strikeout rate among MLB parks, leading to high strand rates for offenses with runners in scoring position.
The Mariners have a deep offense against right-handed pitching (eight hitters grade at a 108 wRC+ or better), but they might also have the best bullpen in baseball; Andrez Munoz (3.03), Matt Brash (3.19), Jose Ferrer (3.21), and Gabe Speier (3.18) all grade as elite-level relievers. Eduard Bazardo (3.73) would be the second-best reliever on the Guardians, who also have a solid bullpen.
The Guardians are sound defensively, led by Steven Kwan. While I'm not generally a Tanner Bibbee guy, his second-half 2025 performance (4.03 xFIP, 15% K-BB%) and 3.62 xERA showed that his 4.24 ERA last season was potentially a HR/FB rate (13% vs. 10.7% career) driven outlier (3.74 xERA, 3.47 ERA in 2024; 3.71 xERA, 2.98 ERA in 2023).
I set this total closer to 6, and would bet Under 6.5 down to -105, if not -110. Alternatively, you can play the Guardians team total under, to 3 (-110) or 2.5 (+120).
Pick: Under 6.5, +102 (DraftKings)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, March 26
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Sides and Totals
- Angels/Astros, Under 8.5 (-115, Risk 1u), ScoreBet, be to 8 (-105)
- Diamondbacks/Dodgers, Over 8.5 (-120, Risk 1u), Fanatics, bet to 9 (-115)
- Guardians/Mariners, Under 6.5 (+102, 1u), DraftKings, bet to -105
- Minnesota Twins (+130, 1u), BetMGM, bet to +115
- Nationals/Cubs, Under 8.5 (-125, Risk 1u), ScoreBet, bet to 7.5 (-110)
- Parlay (+159, 0.33u): Red Sox F5 (-170) & Tigers F5 (-160), Caesars; parlay to -200 and -165
- Pirates/Mets, Over 6.5 (-120, Risk 1u), Fanatics, bet to 7 (-108)
- Twins/Orioles, Over 8 (-110, Risk 1u), DraftKings, bet to 8.5 (-115)
- White Sox/Brewers, Under 8.5 (-115, Risk 1u), BetMGM, bet to 7.5 (+100)
Pitcher Props
- Tanner Bibee, Under 5.5 K’s (-159, 0.1u), Caesars
- Cade Cavalli, Under 3.5 K’s (+124, 0.1u), DraftKings
- Garrett Crochet Under 7.5 K’s (-110, 0.1u), DraftKings
- Nathan Eovaldi, Under 5.5 K’s (-146, 0.1u), FanDuel
- Zac Gallen, Under 4.5 K’s (-135, 0.1u), BetMGM
- Logan Gilbert, Under 6.5 K’s (-117, 0.1u), DraftKings
- Matthew Liberatore, Under 3.5 K’s (+118, 0.1u), Caesars
- Freddy Peralta, Under 5.5 K’s (+130, 0.1u), FanDuel
- Nick Pivetta, Under 5.5 K’s (+115, 0.1u), BetRivers
- Drew Rasmussen, Under 4.5 K’s (-137, 0.1u), BallyBet
- Joe Ryan, Under 6.5 K’s (-138, 0.1u), FanDuel
- Paul Skenes Under 6.5 K’s (-117, 0.1u), DraftKings
- Tarik Skubal, Under 7.5 K’s (-155, 0.1u), BetRivers
- Shane Smith, Under 4.5 K’s (-107, 0.1u), DraftKings
- Jose Soriano, Under 4.5 K’s (-134, 0.1u), BetRivers
- Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Under 16.5 Outs Recorded (-115, 0.2u), BetMGM, bet to 15.5 (+100)
