Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Friday, March 27.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Friday, I preview Yankees-Giants, Athletics-Blue Jays, Guardians-Mariners, and Diamondbacks-Dodgers.
My projections for every MLB game on Tuesday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Friday.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks for Opening Day — Friday, March 27
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- Athletics/Blue Jays, Over 8.5 (-105, Risk 1u), FanDuel, bet to 9 (-105)
- Diamondbacks/Dodgers, Over 8.5 (-110, Risk 1u), Fanatics, bet to 9 (-110)
- Guardians/Mariners, Under 7.5 (-120, Risk 1u), Caesars, bet to 7 (-115)
- Yankees/Giants, Over 7.5 (-110, Risk 1u), BetMGM, bet to 8 (-110)
Yankees vs Giants Picks
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -115o / -105u | -130 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 8 -115o / -105u | +110 |
One of the more notable facts about Oracle Park is that the ball carries significantly better during the day than at night, potentially benefiting offenses after this 1:35 p.m. first pitch.
Per Baseball Savant, Oracle has a rolling three-year run-scoring factor of 98 (-2% vs. the league average) in day games, compared to 90 (-10%) at night. The double factor increases from league average (100) at night to +5% (105) during the day, while the home run factor improves from 78 (-22%) to 87 (-13%).
The Yankees project as a better offense against right-handed pitching than lefties. Still, they are also extremely patient (led MLB with a 10.2% walk rate in 2025 with mostly the same cast) and should be able to wait out Robbie Ray (career 10% walk rate) in his first start, and get into a Giants' bullpen that doesn't project nearly as well as it has in years past.
As I pointed out on Wednesday, the Giants are also a potential defensive disaster – aside from Matt Chapman and Patrick Bailey, who should regularly give their opponents free bases and added opportunities to produce runs.
Bet the Over up to 8 (-110).
Pick: Over 7.5, -110 (BetMGM)
Athletics vs. Blue Jays Picks
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +144 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +116 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -172 |
Two of 2025's most exciting offenses will meet on a belated opening day in Canada, as the Athletics (110 wRC+ in the second half, 8th in MLB) travel east to take on the defending AL champion Toronto Blue Jays (123 wRC+, 1st over the same span).
Despite playing in an extreme offensive environment in Sacramento, the Athletics were nearly as effective on the road (.313 wOBA, 103 wRC+) as they were at home (.331 wOBA, 107 wRC+), but Luis Severino projects as a below-average starting pitcher (4.57 weighted FIP), and they don't have a single bullpen arm that projects below a 4.10 FIP.
Rogers Centre has also played a bit differently since undergoing a multi-year renovation.
The Blue Jays' home ballpark graded out as pitcher-friendly before its walls were modified in 2023, and it has since come in at neutral (100) over the past three seasons (-2% with the roof closed, as it will be on Friday). However, we saw a home run explosion there in 2025 (+18%) after playing closer to neutral for homers (+3%) in the preceding three-year period, which internal stadium renovations may have influenced.
Even with the standard Rogers Centre adjustment with the roof closed, I still make this total closer to 9.5 than 8.5. Bet the Over to 9 (-110).
Pick: Over 8.5, -105 (FanDuel)
Guardians vs. Mariners Picks
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -152 | 7 -105o / -115u | +152 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +126 | 7 -105o / -115u | -180 |
I lost a bet on the Under 6.5 runs on Thursday between these team, and only make the total for Friday's contest about a quarter of a run higher.
I don't project a significant difference between Mariners' starters Logan Gilbert (3.25 weighted FIP) and George Kirby (3.36), and Guardians righties Tanner Bibee (3.99) and Gavin Williams (4.00) grade out essentially the same as one another in my model, too.
First-pitch temperatures will be slightly warmer on Friday than on Thursday, but I don't see enough of a difference in the game to get from 6.5 to 7.5.
I liked Under 6.5 at plus money to -105 on Thursday. While it obviously didn't hit, I am much happier to bet Under at or above the key number of 7 to -115 for Friday, given the minimal adjustment in the projected total.
Pick: Under 7.5, -120 (Caesars)
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers Picks
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 8.5 -120o / -102u | +200 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 8.5 -120o / -102u | -245 |
I set Thursday's total between the Diamondbacks and Dodgers at 9.6 runs with better starting pitchers, Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.30 weighted FIP) and Zac Gallen (4.11) on the mound.
I'm personally high on both Emmet Sheehan (3.64 weighted FIP) and Ryne Nelson (4.14), but neither grades out as well as their teammates.
Friday's forecast isn't quite as warm (70 degrees vs. 77 at first pitch on Thursday), and the wind isn't quite as strong, but I once again make the total closer to 9.5 between these teams, and would bet an Over below or up to the key number of 9 at -110 or better.
Pick: Over 8.5, -110 (Fanatics)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, March 27
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- Athletics/Blue Jays, Over 8.5 (-105, Risk 1u), FanDuel, bet to 9 (-110)
- Diamondbacks/Dodgers, Over 8.5 (-110, Risk 1u), Fanatics, bet to 9 (-110)
- Guardians/Mariners, Under 7.5 (-120, Risk 1u), Caesars, bet to 7 (-115)
- Yankees/Giants, Over 7.5 (-110, Risk 1u), BetMGM, bet to 8 (-110)
