Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, June 30.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview Cardinals vs. Pirates, Yankees vs. Blue Jays, Reds vs. Red Sox, and Orioles vs. Rangers. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Projections — Monday, June 30
Cardinals vs. Pirates
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +135 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | -125 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -160 | 8.5 -120o / 100u | +105 |
RHP Erick Fedde (STL) vs. LHP Andrew Heaney (PIT)
Although their average FIP projections are comparable, I ultimately prefer Pirates starter Andrew Heaney (4.75 xERA, 4.53 xFIP, 3.74 botERA, 9.4% K-BB, 25.3% CSW) to Cardinals starter Erick Fedde (5.24 xERA, 5.07 xFIP, 4.37 botERA, 5.1% K-BB, 23.8% CSW).
The Cardinals' lineup is in its lesser split against a southpaw (108 wRC+ vs. RHP, 92 wRC+ vs. LHP), and they’re mired in a slump (82 wRC+ vs. LHP over the past month).
Conversely, the Pirates’ bats have finally started to heat up after a brutal first half (129 wRC+ over the past week, 30 runs across a three-game series with the Mets). Even better, the bullpen and defense are also beginning to show improvements.
I project the Pirates ML at -114.
Pick: Pirates ML (+106 | Play to -105)
Yankees vs. Blue Jays
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8.5 100o / -120u | -150 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 8.5 100o / -120u | +125 |
LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY) vs. RHP Max Scherzer (TOR)
Max Scherzer will make his second start back from soreness due to a thumb and grip issue. After getting cortisone injections to provide some temporary pain relief, his velocity has jumped back up a few ticks (to 93.2 MPH from 91.9).
He made only nine starts last season, but his advanced pitching model metrics continued to decline (100 Stuff+) alongside his strikeout-minus-walk rate (16.9%), while his xERA began rising (3.86). He posted a 98 Stuff+ rating in his most recent start.
That said, Carlos Rodon is overperforming (2.87 xERA, 3.36 xFIP, 21.2% K-BB), and the Blue Jays are in their better split against a left-handed starter (115 wRC+ vs. LHP, 102 wRC+ vs. RHP).
The Blue Jays are a top-five defensive team and a top-10 bullpen, and they’ll have both advantages in this matchup on Monday.
I project the Blue Jays ML at +106. I’d bet them at +115 or better, but I also want to consider the bigger picture.
| Team | Avg. To Win AL East % | Implied Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Yankees | 67.9% | -212 |
| Rays | 19.8% | +405 |
| Blue Jays | 11.1% | +802 |
If you trust PECOTA — and I’ve been aligned with PECOTA all season on the Jays — there’s value on Toronto to win the division (can find as high as +1000). I believe the Blue Jays are a seriously undervalued team and will continue betting on them as the season progresses.
Pick: Blue Jays ML (+130 | Play to +115)
Reds vs. Red Sox
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | +155 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | -190 |
RHP Chase Burns (CIN) vs. LHP Garrett Crochet (BOS)
Reds starting pitcher Chase Burns was electric in his MLB debut (107 Stuff+, 121 Pitching+, 2.67 botERA, 12 whiffs, 12 called strikes). His velocity sat around 98.1 MPH, and his slider graded out excellently (127 Stuff+).
His projected FIP ranges between 3.45 and 4.23, although OOPSY, which takes into account pitch modeling metrics, is more optimistic by nearly a half-run. I believe he’ll outperform projections.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox offense is ice cold since trading Rafael Devers (79 wRC+, 75 wRC+ vs. RHP).
Boston starter Garrett Crochet is among the best pitchers in the sport (2.96 xERA, 2.72 xFIP, 24.1% K-BB, 29% CSW, 109 Pitching+, 3.08 botERA) and keeps the Reds in their lesser split (75 wRC+ vs. LHP).
That said, Spencer Steer is white hot (.303 BA, .855 OPS, five HR in June) and the Reds have improved significantly on defense this season.
I project the Reds ML at +141.
Pick: Reds ML (+165 | Play to +153)
Orioles vs. Rangers
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -180 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -110 |
LHP Trevor Rogers (BAL) vs. LHP Patrick Corbin (TEX)
The Rangers have been the best Under team in baseball this season (54-29-1, 65% win, 24.6% ROI). Texas games are 30-12 to the Under at home.
Globe Life Field has the lowest Park Factor (79) and Home Run Factor (68) among MLB stadiums this year, which is unusual considering it ranked above average across the past three seasons.
Both offenses are miserable against left-handed pitching (73 wRC+ for TEX, 74 wRC+ for BAL), and both bullpens have been elite over the past month.
While Baltimore is not a strong defensive team, the Rangers are a top-10 defensive squad (+46 DRS, +10 OAA), and I ultimately project 7.92 runs for the matchup.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-105 | Play to -112)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, June 30
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- Pirates ML (+106 | Play to -105)
- Blue Jays ML (+130 | Play to +115)
- Reds ML (+165 | Play to +153)
- Orioles vs. Rangers Under 8.5 (-105 | Play to -112)
