Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column throughout the 2024 baseball season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions, picks and previews for Monday, September 9.
MLB Predictions, Picks, Odds & Previews for Monday
Sean Zerillo's Reds vs Braves Predictions & Picks
Nick Martinez (CIN) vs. Charlie Morton (ATL)
Nick Martinez (3.49 xERA, 15.9% K-BB%, 107 Pitching+, 3.55 botERA) is among my most frequently bet-on pitchers this season.
The 34-year-old righty has shown elite command (3.6% walk rate, 109 Location+) in Cincinnati after signing a two-year, $26m deal (with a player option for 2025) last winter.
Martinez will likely opt out of the second year of that deal. He owns a 2.2 WAR season (1.4 WAR in 2023) before his 13th start and 39th appearance on Monday in Atlanta and could get a similar deal to what Seth Lugo (3-year, $45m with a player option for 2026) signed with for the Royals, coming off of a 2.9 WAR 2023 season in San Diego.
Martinez's Location+ rating increased from 102 in 2022 and 2023 to 109 this season, and his walk rate has more than halved from 9% over the same span to 3.6% in 2024. His 2024 walk rate ranks third among 117 qualified pitchers (min. 100 innings), behind Zach Eflin (2.8%) and George Kirby (3.0%)).
Martinez's pitch mix and velocity level remain comparable to his past two seasons in San Diego, but he is throwing the ball in the zone much more frequently (52.5% vs. 47.3% in 2023 and 49.6% in 2022) than he had previously.
Despite a mediocre strikeout rate, Martinez limits walks and generates weak contact (96th percentile in hard-hit rate, 92nd in average exit velocity, 95th and 98th in 2023) and seems in career-best form.
Conversely, Charlie Morton (4.59 xERA, 15.4% K-BB%, 95 Stuff+, 98 Location+, 97 Pitching+, 4.36 botERA) seems a lesser version of his previously dominant late-career self at age 40.
Morton's Stuff+ rating is down 11 points (from 106 to 95) year over year, and his fastball velocity is down nearly an entire tick, from 94.9 to 94 mph. Morton's sinker (-0.8 mph), changeup (-1.1 mph), and signature curveball (-0.8 mph) each decreased in velocity relative to last season, too.
Morton still has a good curveball (122 Stuff+, .260 xwOBA), but it's not as effective as it used to be (139 Stuff+, .254 xwOBA in 2023; 134, .235 in 2022; 149, .227 in 2021) and the remainder of his arsenal is below average.
After carrying a low home run rate (0.86 HR/9) for the majority of his career, Morton's barrel rate has been around 9.5% in two of the past three seasons, and the dingers have started to pile up (62 in 477 2/3 innings or 1.19 HR/9 since 2022).
Both offenses have struggled in the second half; Atlanta ranks 19th, and Cincinnati is 22nd since the All-Star break. The teams rank 18th and 20th against right-handed pitching over that span.
The Braves bullpen (2nd in xFIP, 2nd in K-BB%) has produced better second-half results than the Reds (22nd, 11th, respectively), but the latter has better pitch modeling metrics (104 Pitching+, 3.87 botERA vs. 100 Pitching+, 4.38 botERA) over the same span.
The spot for this makeup game is certainly more challenging for Cincinnati than Atlanta; the Reds played a weekend series against the Mets in New York, traveled to Atlanta for a single game on Monday evening, and then will travel overnight again to St. Louis for a three-game set with the Cardinals before concluding their road trip in Minnesota next weekend.
Conversely, the Braves don't have to travel until after Monday's game. They are concluding a seven-game homestand after winning consecutive series against the Blue Jays and Rockies.
Bets: Reds F5 Moneyline (+115 or better) | Reds Full-Game Moneyline
Division, Wild Card, and Team Futures Update
On a lighter Monday slate, I wanted to touch on the American League Divisional races and the National League Wild Card race to see where the teams stand with fewer than 20 games in the 2024 regular season.
New York (remaining schedule vs. KC, vs. BOS, @SEA, @OAK, vs. BAL, vs. PIT) currently has a half-game lead over Baltimore (@BOS, @DET, vs. SFG, vs. DET, @NYY, @MIN). The Yankees will host a three-game set against the Orioles in the Bronx from September 24-26.
PECOTA (70.7%) remains the highest on the Yankees' chances of clinching the division, but FanGraphs, ATC, and the BatX put their chances between 60% and 64%.
If you trust PECOTA (-242 implied projection), you can justify value on the Yankees to win the AL East, but if you average the four projections, you get 64% or -177 implied, more in line with their listed odds (-159 at BallyBet).
Cleveland (remaining @CHW, vs. TB, vs. MIN, @STL, vs. CIN, vs. HOU) owns a 2.5-game lead over Kansas City (@NYY, @PIT, vs. DET, vs. SFG, @WSH, @ATL) and a five-game lead over Minnesota (vs. LAA, vs. CIN, @CLE, @BOS, vs. MIA, vs. BAL).
PECOTA offers the most aggressive projection (88.5% or -769 implied) for Cleveland to maintain their divisional lead, with a low of 74.5% (-292 implied) from ATC.
The latter puts the Royals' chances at 20%, and you can justify value at +550 (Caesars and BallyBet) on Kansas City's divisional odds compared to that projection.
Still, I'd wait until after the Guardians' upcoming series with the White Sox while the Royals play the Yankees in the Bronx; Cleveland's lead likely grows through Wednesday before it potentially implodes in the final 2.5 weeks of the season.
Houston (remaining vs. OAK, @ LAA, @SDP, vs. LAA, vs. SEA, @CLE) has a 4.5-game advantage over Seattle (vs. SDP, vs. TEX, vs. NYY, @TEX, @HOU, vs. OAK) and hosts the lone remaining three-game set between the rivals from September 23-25.
Every public projection has the Astros between 94-98% to win the AL West and from 8.2% and 11.2% to win the World Series. The more optimistic forecasts (11.2% from FanGraphs, 10.2% from ATC) project value on the Astros' World Series odds (+1000 at Bet365).
I added a World Series future on the Astros (+1000) on August 30; I would continue to bet them at +900 or better. With Kyle Tucker back in their lineup, they still have an outside chance to close down the AL Central winner and secure the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye.
NL Wild Card:
Every NL Division leader has at least a six-game advantage in the standings, but four teams (the Padres, Diamondbacks, Mets, and Braves) are in tight contention for the three NL wild-card spots.
San Diego (@SEA, @SFG, vs. HOU, vs. CHW, @LAD, @ARI) has the easiest remaining schedule among the group and an average playoff projection of 91% among the four publicly available forecasts. FanGraphs has their World Series chances as high as 8.3% (+1104 implied); I would take +700 or better on the Padres' NL Pennant odds and +1500 or better to win the World Series, with Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish, and Fernando Tatis Jr. all recently returning.
Arizona (vs. TEX, vs. MIL, @COL, @MIL, vs. SFG, vs. SDP) has an average playoff projection of 84.3% among the publicly available forecasts, despite seven games against the NL Central-leading Brewers. Arizona recently reinstated both Ketel Marte and Christian Walker, and they look like a potentially deeper club than the team that won the NL Pennant last season.
New York (@TOR, @PHI, vs. WSH, vs. PHI, @ATL, @MIL) has an average playoff projection of 50% among the publicly available forecasts despite the third-toughest remaining schedule in MLB.
Atlanta (vs. CIN, @WSH, vs. LAD, @CIN, @MIA, vs. NYM, vs. KC) has an average playoff projection of 73.1% after beginning the season as the likeliest team (98.3%) to reach the postseason.
Mark your calendar; de facto playoff baseball begins on Tuesday, September 24th. The Mets and Braves play a crucial three-game series in Atlanta from September 24-26, potentially determining the final NL Wild Card spot. The Yankees will host the Orioles on the same days to potentially determine the AL East champion.
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, September 9
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- Cincinnati Reds F5 (+125, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +130)
- Cincinnati Reds (+144, 0.5u; bet to +130)
- Cleveland Guardians / Chicago White Sox, Over 8.5 (-118, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to 9, -110)
- Miami Marlins (+240, 0.25u) at BallyBet (small to +215)
- New York Mets (-128, Risk 0.56u) at Fanduel (buying off Toronto after pitching changes)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+100; 0.5u) at ESPNBet (pass after pitching changes)
