Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, May 6.
MLB Predictions Monday | Expert Picks, Odds, Previews (May 6)
Angels vs. Pirates
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 8 -105o / -115u | +118 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 8 -105o / -115u | -138 |
Tyler Anderson (LAA) vs. Mitch Keller (PIT)
A declining fastball is the most significant difference between Mitch Keller in 2023 (4.21 ERA, 4.18 xERA, 18.8% K-BB%) and Keller in 2024 (5.18 ERA, 5.04 xERA, 3.97 xFIP).
Keller's pitch modeling metrics (100 Stuff+, 100 Location+) are down compared to last season (104 and 103, respectively), but that's mostly from throwing fastballs at reduced velocity (down from 95.2 to 94.2 mph vs. 2023; Stuff+ down from 100 to 90) — his secondary stuff remains intact.
Keller's hard-hit rate is up significantly (from 35.6% to 45.9%) because the fastballs are getting trounced (.534 xSLG on his four-seamer, .458 on the cutter, .451 on the sinker compared to marks of .343, .459, and .341, respectively last season).
Keller's K-BB% (strikeout minus walk rate) has dipped from 18.8% to 13.4% year over year (he carried an 11.4% mark with a 4.18 xERA and 3.99 xFIP in 2022). However, his called-strike plus whiff rate (CSW%) is 28%, compared to 28.3% last season and 25.8% in 2022, with a whiff rate splitting the difference between those seasons. He's having trouble finishing hitters.
On the surface, Tyler Anderson (2.23 ERA, 4.72 xERA, 4.82 xFIP, 8.7% K-BB%) is showing similar underlying indicators to last season (4.96 xERA, 4.82 xFIP, 8.2% K-BB%) but he's also carrying a career-best whiff rate (13.2%) and showing improved pitching modeling metrics (94 Stuff+, 103 Location) vs. 2023 (91 Stuff+, 99 Location+). However, his low BABIP (.194) and high strand rate (90.9%) should eventually cave in.
After downgrading Keller by nearly half a run and upgrading Anderson by a similar amount, I still like the Pirates in both halves of this matchup.
Pittsburgh should continue to perform as a league-average offense against southpaws (110 wRC+ this season), and the Angels about 10% below league average vs. righties (97 wRC+ this season, but now without Mike Trout).
I view the Buccos as the better team defensively and on the basepaths, and they also have a severe bullpen edge (14th vs. 24th in xFIP; 10th vs. 24th in K-BB%; 4th vs. 22nd in Stuff+).
Bets: Pirates F5 Moneyline (-147 or better) | Pirates Full-Game Moneyline (-145 or better) | Over 8 (-118) or 8.5 ( +100 or better)
Brewers vs. Royals
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +126 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -148 |
Bryse Wilson (MIL) vs. Cole Ragans (KC)
The Royals have a clear starting pitching advantage on Monday, with Cole Ragans meeting lofty expectations (3.44 ERA, 3.39 xFIP, 20.8% K-BB%). However, Milwaukee saved all of its key relievers on Sunday and should have a substantial bullpen edge, by nearly a full run on projected ERA.
Milwaukee's bullpen ranks 12th in xFIP, 16th in K-BB%, and 19th in Stuff+ this season. After deploying long relievers on Sunday, it projects as the third-best bullpen in my model (behind Philadelphia and San Francisco) for Monday's 10-game slate.
Kansas City ranks 28th, 29th and 30th in the same three performance indicators and projects as the 19th-best bullpen of the 20 teams in action on Monday.
Offensively, Milwaukee has performed much better against righties (123 wRC+, 2nd) than lefties (85 wRC+, 23rd), but if this game is tied with relievers on the mound, the Brewers should have the advantage.
Alternatively, or in addition, consider a live bet on Milwaukee with a close eye on Ragans' pitch count.
Bet: Brewers Full-Game Moneyline (+122 or better)
Mets vs. Cardinals
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 8 -115o / -105u | +110 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 8 -115o / -105u | -130 |
Sean Manaea (NYM) vs. Kyle Gibson (STL)
I set this total at around 8.8 runs.
I'm a bit worried about Sean Manaea, who has posted a 16:14 strikeout-to-walk ratio over his past four starts, alongside declining velocity and pitch modeling metrics (91 Stuff+, 101 Location+ in 2023 vs. 86 Stuff+, 95 Location+ in 2024).
Manaea owns a 3.07 ERA, compared to a 4.72 xERA and 4.76 xFIP, and his walk rate (14.1%) is more than double his career average (6.7%).
Kyle Gibson (3.79 ERA, 5.52 xERA, 4.27 xFIP) is coming off his best start of the season (7 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 9 K) against the Tigers. Still, he's also experienced a velocity dip, a decline in pitch modeling metrics and K-BB%, and has benefitted from both a low BABIP (.225) and a high strand rate (78.7%).
Both teams may also need innings from these starters to preserve their bullpens.
New York deployed six relievers in a 10-inning heartbreaker on Sunday. Reed Garrett and Sean-Reid Foley worked for the second consecutive day, and Jorge Lopez pitched for the fourth time in six days.
The Cardinals used three different relievers for multi-inning stints on Sunday.
Bet: Over 8 (8.5, -105 or better)
Rangers vs. Athletics
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +116 | 8 -110o / -110u | -142 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 8 -110o / -110u | +120 |
Andrew Heaney (TEX) vs. Alex Wood (OAK)
Surprisingly, the Athletics have the better offense against left-handed pitching this season, ranking 13th against southpaws (103 wRC+) compared to 22nd for the Rangers (92 wRC+).
The inverse is true against right-handed pitching, with the Rangers (110 wRC+, 7th) and A's (96 wRC+, 20th) rating closer to expectations.
I'd still project Texas as an above-average team and Oakland as a below-average team against either handedness of pitcher.
Andrew Heaney (5.10 ERA, 4.10 xERA, 4.65 xFIP, 13.6% K-BB%) looks the same as he was in Texas last season (5.15 ERA, 4.55 xERA, 4.58 xFIP, 13.6% K-BB%).
Alex Wood (6.32 ERA, 6.05 xERA, 5.09 xFIP, 7.8% K-BB%) is also showing similar indicators to 2023 (4.67 xERA, 5.14 xFIP, 7.5% K-BB%), but he's permitted a significant increase in hard contact (48% up from 37.4%).
The Rangers bullpen has the better K-BB%, but Oakland leads in xFIP, Stuff+ and my ERA projection for Monday's matchup.
As a result, I see a bigger advantage for Texas in the first half (projected -154) than over nine innings (projected -136), which could include ace reliever Mason Miller (0.80 xERA, 0.91 xFIP, 46.3% K-BB%), who hasn't pitched since May 1.
Bet: Rangers F5 Moneyline (-141 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Monday, May 6
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- Milwaukee Brewers (+133, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +122)
- New York Mets / St. Louis Cardinals, Over 8 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 8.5, -105)
- Pittsburgh Pirates F5 (-132, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -147)
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML (-130, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -145)
- Pittsburgh Pirates / Los Angeles Angels, Over 8 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -118 or 8.5, +100)
- San Francisco Giants / Philadelphia Phillies, Over 7.5 (-110, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
- Tampa Bay Rays F5 (-150, Risk 0.5u) at DraftKings (flat to -155)
- Texas Rangers F5 (-135, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -141)
