Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, May 20.
MLB Predictions Monday | Expert Picks, Odds, Previews Today
Padres vs. Braves, Game 1
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+118 | 8.5 -104o/ -118u | -1.5 +160 |
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-138 | 8.5 -104o/ -118u | +1.5 -194 |
Dylan Cease (SDP) vs. Reynaldo Lopez (ATL)
Dylan Cease is throwing like one of the best — if not the best — pitchers in the National League. He owns a career-best 24.5% K-BB% and 15.2% swinging-strike rate while throwing his slider harder (87.5 mph) than ever. Cease is also using the pitch 41.3% of the time, comparable to his usage in 2022 when he finished second in AL Cy Young Award voting (2.20 ERA, 3.50 xFIP, 19.9% K-BB%).
Cease is also throwing his fastball harder than he did in 2022 (96.9 mph vs. 96.8 mph), and the total package looks even better this year (2.65 xERA, 3.20 xFIP).
Reynaldo Lopez (1.34 ERA, 3.72 xERA) has been fortunate this season (.257 BABIP, 89.9% strand rate vs. .280 and 72.1% career) but he still projects as an above-average starter (projected FIP range of 3.48 to 4.00).
Both pitchers may also face a depleted opposing lineup. After participating in Sunday Night Baseball, these teams will play a doubleheader on Monday. I expect both teams to potentially sit a starter or two on Monday afternoon before bringing back their "A" lineups for the nightcap.
Even assuming the best possible lineups, I set this total at 7.66 runs with the wind blowing in from the left field (5-6 mph).
Bets: Under 8.5 (8, -103 or better)
Red Sox vs. Rays
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+118 | 7.5 -110o/ -110u | -1.5 +146 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-138 | 7.5 -110o/ -110u | +1.5 -178 |
Tanner Houck (BOS) vs. Taj Bradley (TB)
I bet on the Rays in the same matchup last Wednesday in Boston. I projected the Rays as +115 road underdogs and bet them at +128 for a line that closed +120.
Based on the switch in home venue, you would expect the Rays to be around -110 (52.5% implied) for the same matchup in Tampa Bay after closing around +120 (45.5% implied) in Boston — a difference of about 7%. However, their line opened at even money for Monday — a difference of just 4.5% compared to last Wednesday's closing line.
While Tanner Houck has improved this season (Stuff+ up from 101 to 109), his statistical improvements are all command-oriented. Houck's walk rate (4.7%) is substantially lower than the past two seasons (8.9%) because he's throwing the ball in the zone more. However, his whiff and chase rates remain stable relative to previous seasons, and his strikeout rate aligns with his career average.
Houck has been generating more called strikes this season. Opponents haven't reacted by swinging more aggressively yet, but they might soon.
Taj Bradley (projected FIP range of 3.91 to 4.13) has a ton of upside. He owns a 109 Stuff+ since debuting last season — including a plus fastball (130 Stuff+) — and his curveball looks improved in 2024.
Tampa Bay also has the better bullpen in my model by nearly a half run on a season-long ERA projection.
Bets: Rays Full-Game Moneyline (-112 or better)
Diamondbacks vs. Dodgers
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
+118 | 8.5 -118o/ -104u | +1.5 -114 |
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
-138 | 8.5 -118o/ -104u | -1.5 -105 |
Slade Cecconi (ARI) vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD)
Slade Cecconi has shown solid pitch modeling metrics (100 Stuff+, 104 Location+) and has been unlucky to pitch a 5.27 ERA this season (2.97 xERA). Cecconi's projections (projected FIP range of 2.24 to 4.50) like him much more than the results he's posted to date (career 4.71 FIP, 4.80 xFIP, 13.2% K-BB%).
Cecconi has solid command — and continually gets ahead of hitters — but he has a bad fastball that routinely gets crushed (.407 xSLG in 2024; .557 last season). His slider and curve rate as far superior offerings, but he only throws the curve sporadically (8% usage rate; .056 xwOBA allowed).
The pitch modeling metrics suggest a much higher ceiling, but Cecconi never posted elite numbers in Triple-A (16.6% K-BB%) either.
Still, I projected Arizona closer to +175 and set the total at 7.76 runs.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (3.21 ERA, 3.44 xERA, 22.3% K-BB%) hasn't been as sharp as his countryman, Shota Imanaga (2.61 xERA, 23.4% K-BB%), but he's still met his 2024 projections (projected FIP range of 3.33 to 3.56) and should seemingly improve as he gets a better feel for the physical MLB baseballs.
Kodai Senga (12.3% BB% in the first half of 2023 vs. 9.6% BB% in the second half of 2023) and other Japanese pitchers have typically needed an adjustment period to harness their command while adjusting to the size and texture of American baseballs.
Bets: Diamondbacks Full-Game Moneyline (+190 or better) | Under 8.5 (-119 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Monday, May 20
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- Arizona Diamondbacks (+208, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +190)
- Arizona Diamondbacks / Los Angeles Dodgers, Under 8.5 (-102, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -119)
- San Diego Padres, Atlanta Braves, Game 1 Under 8.5 (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to 8, -103)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+100, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -112)
