Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, June 3.
MLB Predictions Monday | Expert Picks, Odds & Previews
Mets vs. Nationals
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8.5 104o / -128u | +104 |
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 8.5 104o / -128u | -122 |
Tylor Megill (NYM) vs. MacKenzie Gore (WAS)
I discussed and bet on Tylor Megill last Tuesday before he carved through the Dodgers (7 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K).
Megill's fastball velocity (95.8 mph) and underlying indicators (3.09 xERA, 3.71 xFIP, 21.9% K-BB%) align with his 2022 form (4.31 xERA, 3.92 xFIP, 19% K-BB%) rather than his down 2023 season (95 mph, 5.85 xERA, 4.92 xFIP, 8.3% K-BB%). His pitch modeling metrics (110 Stuff+ in 2024 vs. 90 in 2023 and 106 in 2022) have also significantly improved.
Megill's fastball (120 Stuff+) is playing like a plus pitch again, and he's incorporating a cutter (13.7%, 123 Stuff+) and a splitter (8.8%, 97 Stuff+) this season.
Projections (projected FIP range of 4.07 to 4.43) and the betting market are factoring in too much of that poor 2023 sample for Megill. He could finish in the mid-threes this season with full health.
I'd project Megill in a similar range as MacKenzie Gore (3.49 xERA, 2.98 xFIP, 22.3% K-BB%, 3.78 average projected FIP). Gore has improved his strikeout, walk rates and fastball velocity each season (up two ticks in two years) — he's an elite starter.
Still, I don't see as big of a gap between these pitchers as I would have before Megill's past two outings, and the Mets have the better offense (10th vs. 25th in wRC+; 12th vs. 24th in their respective split for Monday) and bullpen.
Bets: Mets F5 Moneyline (-105 or better) | Mets Full-Game Moneyline (+100 or better)
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Orioles vs. Blue Jays
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -124 |
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | +106 |
Grayson Rodriguez (BAL) vs. Kevin Gausman (TOR)
Kevin Gausman suffered a shoulder injury in the spring, and his velocity and indicators have suffered this season (4.70 xERA, 18% K-BB%, 97 Stuff+).
Gausman's Pitching+ figure (106) is higher than his rating from 2023 (105) because his Location+ rating is up (and his walk rate has improved). However, with the decline in stuff, Gausman's strikeout rate is down 7% compared to last season.
Gausman has given up 30 runs across 11 starts, but 19 came in three blowup outings. He's held opponents to one run or fewer in six of 11 starts (14 of his 31 starts in 2023). He's been better of late, too, turning in a quality start in five of his past seven outings (2.70 ERA, 3.01 xFIP).
The solid command provides a high floor. Additionally, Toronto plays excellent defense, with a top-five ranking in both Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) and Outs Above Average (OAA).
Grayson Rodriguez has a higher ceiling (118 Stuff+), but he's shown subpar command since returning from an IL stint for his shoulder issue. Rodriguez (3.78 xERA, 18.3% K-BB%) generates more strikeouts than Gausman but also permits more walks.
Projections prefer Gausman (projected FIP range of 3.29 to 3.45) to Rodriguez (projected range of 3.66 to 3.84). I model Rodriguez in that range, but I have downgraded Gausman's projection closer to four — yet I still project Toronto as a -115 favorite in both halves.
Bets: Blue Jays F5 Moneyline (-105 or better) | Blue Jays Full-Game Moneyline (-106 or better)
Tigers vs. Rangers
| Tigers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -116 |
| Rangers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -182 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -102 |
Tarik Skubal (DET) vs. Nathan Eovaldi (TEX)
These teams are both 29-30 but seemingly heading in opposite directions.
The Tigers were the trendy AL Central upset pick this spring — they now look like the fourth-best team in a surprisingly strong division and demoted Spencer Torkelson because they are desperate for offense (25th in wRC+).
The Rangers are treading water until Evan Carter, Josh Jung, Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom and Tyler Mahle return. They'll surely improve their shaky bullpen (28th in ERA, 22nd in xFIP, 24th in K-BB%) by August, too.
PECOTA projections suggest current value in their divisional futures. FanGraphs, ATC and The BAT projections staunchly disagree. I will closely monitor the AL West and World Series odds in June.
Nathan Eovaldi (3.49 xERA) remains the Rangers' ace for now. After returning from injury, he was awful last September but found his form in the playoffs and carried that into 2024.
Tarik Skubal (2.4 xERA) is the favorite for the AL Cy Young Award and seemingly has a decent matchup. Texas ranks 25th against left-handed pitching this season, and the Tigers are better against righties (16th) than lefties (28th).
However, it can be dangerous to take a two-month split for a team and use that as the lone predictive measurement of future expectations. Texas had a top-five offense against both right-handed and left-handed pitching in 2023. It hung four runs on Skubal in April.
My model is player-based, and I use a multiyear data sample for player splits. I project this Rangers lineup for a 113 wRC+ against a left-handed starter (85 in 2024, 110 in 2023) compared to a 98 wRC+ for the Tigers against a righty (99 in 2024, 87 in 2023).
Bets: Rangers Full-Game Moneyline (-115 or better)
Reds vs. Rockies
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +116 | 10.5 -110o / -110u | -134 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 10.5 -110o / -110u | +114 |
Andrew Abbott (CIN) vs. Ryan Feltner (COL)
Colorado has a significant defensive advantage in this series. The Rockies rank ninth in DRS and 13th in OAA (and rank as a top-eight unit in my model). Conversely, the Reds are 22nd in DRS and 31st in OAA — only their pitchers have netted positive defensive value this season.
Both offenses have struggled (27th and 29th in wRC+), and the starting pitchers are comparable.
Ryan Feltner has been unlucky, with a .337 BABIP and 67% strand rate, leading to a 5.46 ERA against a 3.86 expected mark.
Feltner owns a higher strikeout minus walk rate and superior pitch modeling metrics (100 Stuff+, 101 Location+) compared to Andrew Abbott (92 Stuff+, 98 Location+), who continues to defy projection systems (projected FIP range of 4.36 to 4.69).
Aside from that expected ERA, every indicator suggests that Abbott, who is making his first start at Coors Field, is a below-average starter.
Colorado is the Action Labs database's most profitable home underdog (+$4,856, 7.9% ROI for a consistent $100 bettor across 615 games since 2005). Monday potentially looks like a good spot to add to the ledger — I projected the game as a true coin flip.
Bets: Rockies Full-Game Moneyline (+110 or better)
Padres vs. Angels
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | -130 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 8.5 -106o / -114u | +110 |
Matt Waldron (SDP) vs. Tyler Anderson (LAA)
Another week, another Tyler Anderson fade.
I haven't bet against a pitcher this consistently since the corpse of Jake Arrieta in 2021 (5-14, 7.39 for the Cubs and Padres). If you bet $100 against Arrieta in every game of that season, you would have gone 18-6 with a $825 profit for a 34% ROI.
Anderson isn't nearly that bad of a pitcher — he's the prototypical Chad innings eater, and a serviceable back-end starter. However, he's also run about as well as I have seen a pitcher of his level run over two months.
That wacky interference play you saw last week with Juan Soto? It came after Anderson loaded the bases to start the game — the highlight of his luckbox campaign:
Juan Soto was called out here for interference on an infield fly rule.
Where the hell exactly was he supposed to go? And why does it matter if it’s an automatic out anyway? pic.twitter.com/bxiefnu0UI
— Addison (@YankeeWRLD) May 30, 2024
Anderson ultimately stranded all three first-inning runners — and every other baserunner that evening (aside from Alex Verdugo's solo shot) — increasing his strand rate to 87% (72.4% career, previous high of 77.8%). Anderson also has a .211 BABIP (.284 career, previous low of .256).
Regression is coming. Anderson has only one start this year where he's allowed more than three runs — it happened in 12 of his 25 starts last season. The underlying metrics (4.60 xERA, 5.00 xFIP, 6.8 K-BB% in 2024 vs. 4.96 xERA, 5.52 xFIP, 8.7% K-BB%) and pitch modeling metrics (98 Pitching+ vs. 96 last season) show that he's the same pitcher as 2023.
Matt Waldron (3.52 xERA, 16.5% K-BB%) throws a knuckleball nearly 40% of the time — he's a bit more challenging to project. Still, Waldron is in a groove right now (31 K, 6 BB in the past four outings), and I like him toward the more optimistic end of his projected range (projected FIP range of 4.17 to 4.64), which is in line with his career 4.21 xFIP.
Waldron's knuckler (.200 xBA, .306 xSLG, .247 xwOBA) should continue to improve with age and repetition, which is especially fun because he's only 27 years old. He could be around for a while.
Bets: Padres F5 Moneyline (-135 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Monday, June 3
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- Colorado Rockies (+118, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +110)
- Milwaukee Brewers (+180, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to +173)
- New York Mets F5 (+105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -105)
- New York Mets (+115, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to +100)
- San Diego Padres F5 (-128, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -135)
- San Francisco Giants / Arizona Diamondbacks, Under 9 (-110, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -115)
- Toronto Blue Jays F5 (-104, 0.25u) at FanDuel (small to -105)
- Toronto Blue Jays (+113, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -115)
- Texas Rangers (+102, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to -115)
