Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, June 24.
MLB Predictions Monday | 5 Expert Picks & Previews
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -106 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -110 |
Tanner Bibee (CLE) vs. Cade Povich (BAL)
Since the Orioles modified the left-field dimensions at Camden Yards in 2022 — raising the height of the walls seven feet and moving them back as much as 26.5 feet — the park has a 76 Home Run Factor for right-handed hitters (28th in MLB) compared to a mark of 109 for left-handed hitters (ninth).
From the 2019-22 seasons, Camden Yards had a 107 Home Run Factor for righties (10th) and 111 for lefties (seventh) — showing that the new wall is responsible for a severe reduction in right-handed production (11th vs. 22nd in run-scoring for right-handed hitters).
Conditions will be even more difficult for right-handed power hitters Monday, with 12 mph winds blowing in from left field, benefitting Orioles rookie southpaw Cade Povich.
Povich doesn't have great stuff (85 Stuff+) or command (98 Location+, 45 scouting grade), although scouts believe control can be one of his best features as he develops (60 future grade). Povich has had two shaky MLB outings (combined 3 K, 9 BB) on either side of a dominant effort against the Braves (6 K, 0 BB); he may be in full control or complete disarray from one start to the next as he continues to develop.
Povich's slider and cutter grade as plus offerings, but he's only thrown the pair less than 20% of the time combined. However, Povich has a hidden skill; he's a fly-ball pitcher who suppresses hard contact by generating a high percentage of popups, which are as good as strikeouts.
Tanner Bibee (3.55 xERA, 23.1% K-BB%, 102 Stuff+, 104 Location+) is one of the most underrated starting pitchers in baseball; among 73 qualified pitchers, Bibee ranks eighth in K-BB% and eighth in Pitching+ (107).
I'd typically give the Guardians a bullpen advantage in this head-to-head matchup. However, their key relievers — including Emmanuel Clase, who has worked four of the past five days — are a bit more taxed for Monday, making the pitching more comparable in late, high-leverage situations.
Bets: Orioles Full-Game Moneyline (-111 or better) | Under 8.5 (-110 or better)
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | -108 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | -108 |
Bailey Falter (PIT) vs. Carson Spiers (CIN)
The Reds have the offensive splits advantage for Monday's matchup; Cincinnati ranks 17th on the season against left-handed pitching, while the Pirates rank 29th against righties. The two teams rank 26th and 16th against the opposite split.
That said, splits are both fluid — depending upon player availability and actual lineup construct from one game to the next — and I prefer multi-year data samples, where possible. For Monday's anticipated lineups, I'd project the Pirates for a 99 wRC+ against a right-handed pitcher compared to a 117 wRC+ for the Reds against a lefty.
Carson Spiers has outpitched his projections (projected FIP range of 4.58 to 4.85) to a substantial degree (3.67 xFIP, 14.2% K-BB%) thanks to elite command (109 Location+, 4.7% BB%) and a dominant sweeper (136 Stuff).
Carson Spiers, Filthy 83mph Sweeper. 😷
7th K in Relief. pic.twitter.com/oXJZ8zAqzp
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 9, 2024
Based upon those projections, I think the betting market underrates Spiers, and I expect him to perform closer to a league-average pitcher than a No. 5 starter.
Bailey Falter showed improved stuff (Stuff+ up 12 points) and velocity compared to last season, but his strikeout and walk rates are trending in the wrong direction (down 1.5%) and his xERA is up (from 4.93 to 5.13), yet his ERA is down from 5.36 to 3.74, thanks primarily to a .240 BABIP (.286 career, .308 in 2023)
Bets: Reds F5 Moneyline (-125 or better) | Reds Full-Game Moneyline (-115 or better) | Over 9.5 (-118 or 10, +100 or better)
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 8 -115o / -105u | -146 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 8 -115o / -105u | +124 |
James Paxton (LAD) vs. Garrett Crochet (CHW)
Three leading AL Cy Young candidates will pitch Monday, including Garrett Crochet, who leads all starting pitchers in K-BB% (29.5%) and ranks second in xERA (2.43).
Tanner Houck (+1000), Crochet (+900) and Cole Ragans (+2000) rank top three in AL pitching WAR, ahead of Tarik Skubal (+225). Houck is the projected end-of-season WAR leader per ZIPS (4.5), Crochet is the projected leader by Steamer (5.1), and Skubal ranks second by both systems, with Corbin Burnes (third or fourth), Ragans (fifth or sixth), and George Kirby (fourth or sixth) slotting in behind.
James Paxton turned in his best outing of the season at Coors Field (7 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 8 K), but his velocity and stuff (70 Stuff+ vs. 75 on the season) remained at concerning levels; and I still expect Paxton to pitch closer to his 4.64 xERA or projected FIP range (projected 4.69 to 4.94) over the rest of the season, as opposed to his 3.65 ERA (.237 BABIP, .298 career; 78.1% strand rate, 73.5% career).
The White Sox have crushed left-handed pitching of late (124 wRC+, 5th over the last 30 days) and should see a big lift with Luis Robert Jr. (career 161 wRC+ vs. lefties) and Eloy Jiménez (102) likely starting together for the first time since March.
Bets: White Sox F5 Moneyline (-115 or better)
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 9.5 -106o / -114u | +198 |
| Royals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 9.5 -106o / -114u | -240 |
Roddery Munoz (MIA) vs. Cole Ragans (KCR)
Ragans (3.28 xERA, 21% K-BB%) projects to rank near the end-of-season WAR leaders in the AL, but pitchers like Crochet, Skubal or Tyler Glasnow are more effective per-inning.
Still, I make Ragans a substantial first-half favorite against Roddery Munoz, who wasn't expected to make the majors this season. Munoz didn't have projections on his Fangraphs page when he was first called up, and he owned a 7% K-BB% and 5.9 xFIP in Triple-A at the time.
He's exceeded expectations to a degree at the MLB level (12.6% K-BB%, 94 Stuff+) but still projects as a replacement-level arm (projected FIP range of 4.68 to 5.40). He's been a bit lucky to date (5.76 ERA, 7.01 xERA), with a low BABIP (.211) and a high strand rate (82%), alongside a 50% hard-hit rate and a 15.9% barrel rate.
For context on that barrel rate, if Munoz were a hitter, he'd rank 11th — ahead of players like Corey Seager and Bobby Witt Jr.
Bets: Royals F5 Moneyline (-245 or better) | Over 9 (-122 or 9.5, -103 or better)
| Nationals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 8 -122o / -100u | +190 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -104 | 8 -122o / -100u | -230 |
Patrick Corbin (WSN) vs. Matt Waldron (SDP)
If I used the most optimistic projection I could for Matt Waldron (3.57 xERA) and the most pessimistic number I could justify for Patrick Corbin (6.67 xERA, 6.3% K-BB%), I could make the Padres -355 favorites in the first five innings of this matchup; using a less aggressive approach, I still set the line at -261.
This is assuming that Fernando Tatís Jr. and Jurickson Profar both return to the Padres lineup after leaving Friday's game prematurely and sitting both Saturday and Sunday; otherwise, I'd place a larger wager.
Waldron is tough to handicap. Aside from his knuckleball (38.1% usage rate), he has an effective slider (112 Stuff+) and solid command (102 Location+). Projections (projected FIP range of 4.10 to 4.63) likely underrate his effectiveness. Batted ball metrics show that Waldron limits hard contact (88th percentile in hard-hit rate).
Corbin is a former All-Star turned replacement-level arm and pitching to a level on par with late-career Jake Arrieta (7.39 ERA, 6.19 xERA, 8.3% K-BB% in 2021) or Dallas Keuchel (5.97 ERA, 5.59 xERA, 4.1% K-BB% in 2023). But he's been a replacement-level pitcher for four years (5.62 xERA in 2021, 6.41 in 2022, 6.16 in 2023, 6.67 in 2024), with a remarkable 57 losses and 5.73 ERA since 2021 — 16 more losses and three-tenths of a run higher than any other pitcher over that span.
Bets: Padres F5 Moneyline (-215 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Monday, June 24
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- Atlanta Braves F5 (-110, 0.25u) at BetMGM (small to -118)
- Atlanta Braves / St. Louis Cardinals, Under 9 (-120, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to 8.5, -105)
- Baltimore Orioles (-106, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -111)
- Baltimore Orioles / Cleveland Guardians, Under 8.5 (+100, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -114)
- Chicago White Sox F5 (+105, 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -115)
- Cincinnati Reds F5 (-110, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -124)
- Cincinnati Reds (-105, 0.5u) at FanDuel (bet to -115)
- Cincinnati Reds / Pittsburgh Pirates, Over 9.5 (-106, 0.5u) at BallyBet (bet to -118 or 10, +100)
- Kansas City Royals / Miami Marlins, Over 9 (-120, 0.5u) at Caesars (bet to -122 or 9.5, -103)
- Kansas City Royals F5 (-225, 0.25u) at bet365 (small to -245)
- Oakland Athletics (+127, 0.5u) at Superbook (bet to +121)
- San Diego Padres F5 (-200, 0.25u) at BetMGM (small to -215)
