Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
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You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Monday, June 10.
MLB Predictions Monday | Expert Picks, Odds & Previews (June 10)
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +114 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -156 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -137 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +132 |
Corbin Burnes (BAL) vs. Ryan Pepiot (TB)
Since returning from an IL stint (due to a leg bruise from a line drive) on May 22, Ryan Pepiot ranks ninth in Stuff+ (119) among 132 starting pitchers.
Pepiot's season-long stuff+ figure (117, 11th) aligns with Corbin Burnes, who offers better command (105 vs. 99 Location) and a superior profile (110 vs. 105 Pitching+).
The expected ERA (xERA) for both pitchers falls in a similar range — 2.74 for Burnes and 2.87 for Pepiot. Burnes has a low BABIP (.252) and a high strand rate (81.5%) compared to his career averages (.275 and 75.5%, respectively). Pepiot has always carried a low BABIP (.220 vs. .231 career), but he's been unlucky with runners on base (66.5% strand rate vs. 81.6% career).
Between the pair, Pepiot has the superior strikeout rate and strikeout minus walk rate (21.1% vs. 17.5%), but Burnes has a higher called-strike plus whiff rate (29.8% vs. 29.4% CSW%) and limits hard contact by keeping the ball on the ground (50% vs. 32% ground-ball rate; career 0.94 vs. 1.31 HR/9).
Pepiot offers immense upside as he has five pitches that rate 114 or better (a high of 141 on his curveball), according to Stuff+. If he harnesses the command and optimizes his pitch mix, Pepiot will become one of the best pitchers in the American League, and the Rays could have a scary rotation for 2025.
Even though Burnes is currently the second choice for AL Cy Young, the talent gap between these pitchers isn't as substantial as you might expect.
Bets: Rays Full-Game Moneyline (+123 or better)
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| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | +188 |
| Twins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -104 | 8.5 -105o / -115u | -225 |
Dakota Hudson (COL) vs. Chris Paddack (MIN)
Dakota Hudson has been one of my favorite pitchers to bet against for the past few years.
He's a replacement-level arm (5.44 xERA in 2024, 6.00 in 2023, 5.01 in 2022) with a 158:128 K:BB ratio in 282 2/3 innings over the past three seasons. Over that span, 204 starting pitchers have tossed 100 innings or more — Hudson ranks last in strikeout rate and 192nd in walk rate.
Hudson's fastball velocity (90.1 mph) is down compared to last season (91.1 mph), and his pitch modeling metrics have dipped, too (Stuff+ down from 94 to 85).
The same models like Chris Paddack (105 Pitching+), with two above-average offerings (111 changeup, 107 curveball), elite command and a new slider. Paddack should see his luck turn (5.26 ERA, 4.20 xERA) as batted balls turn into outs (.337 BABIP vs. .293 career).
Minnesota has the better offense, ranking closer to league average against either handedness of pitcher. The Rockies rank 29th against righties (80 wRC+) and 25th against lefties (85 wRC+).
Bets: Twins F5 Moneyline (-202 or better) | Under 8 (-102 or better)
| Blue Jays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +142 | 8.5 106o / -130u | -110 |
| Brewers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -172 | 8.5 106o / -130u | -106 |
Jose Berrios (TOR) vs. Colin Rea (MIL)
The Blue Jays have struggled to find offense (98 wRC+, 16th) and recently called up first baseman Spencer Horwitz (who had an underwhelming .296 xwOBA in Triple-A) to try to spark their lineup. Toronto had the second-best offense in 2022 (118 wRC+) and ranked eighth last season (107), but has fallen below average this year.
The Jays don't strike out (fourth in K%) and take a good number of walks (fourth in BB%) — in fact, they have shown better plate discipline (0.50 BB/K) than any other offense (Yankees 0.49, Dodgers 0.47). However, they rank 24th in ISO and have a below-average .316 xwOBA as a team — they just don't hit for enough power.
Colin Rea (3.53 ERA, 5.54 xERA) has been a bit shaky, but Milwaukee's bullpen had consecutive days of rest on Thursday (the scheduled day off) and Friday (a near-complete game). Their key relievers are well-rested for Monday.
Similarly, the Blue Jays bullpen faced one batter combined on Friday and Saturday before deploying six relievers on Sunday, but none threw more than 17 pitches in an extra-innings victory. Their key arms should be ready behind Jose Berrios (2.80 ERA, 4.40 xERA).
I set Monday's total in Milwaukee at 7.85 runs.
Bets: Under 8.5 (-115 or better)
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +138 | 8 -118o / -104u | -118 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -166 | 8 -118o / -104u | +100 |
Spencer Arrighetti (HOU) vs. Kyle Harrison (SF)
I have slowly upgraded Spencer Arrighetti — and downgraded Kyle Harrison — throughout this season, yet I show value on the Giants as home underdogs on Monday.
Arrighetti got hammered early (8.44 ERA through five starts) but has settled in since (3-1, 3.55 ERA, 3.76 xFIP in his last five starts). He's a slightly below-average starter (98 Pitching+) who has a decent curveball and changeup, but an underwhelming fastball (75 Stuff+).
His command should be average, but he's carried a high walk rate (12.1%), including through the Minors. I expect Arrighetti to pitch toward his xERA (4.46) and projected FIP range (4.31 to 4.36) over the remainder of the season.
Harrison's fastball velocity and Stuff+ ratings are down compared to last season. He's lost about a tick off his fastball (from 93.6 mph to 92.7 mph), and the Stuff+ rating on the pitch — which he throws more than 60% of the time — has fallen from 104 to 96. His strikeout minus walk rate (14% vs. 16.3%) and xERA (4.68 vs. 4.55) are comparable to his marks from 2023. Still, Harrison is giving up more hard contact (44.2% vs. 38.1%), and his BABIP has skyrocketed (.330 vs. .236).
Harrison has continued to perform much better at home (18.3% K-BB%) than on the road (11.3% K-BB%) and maintains neutral splits against righties (career 4.48 xFIP) and lefties (4.49 xFIP).
The Giants should have the bullpen advantage in this matchup — they rank fourth in xFIP, seventh in K-BB% and seventh in Stuff+. Astros relievers rank 17th, 18th, and ninth, respectively.
Bets: Giants Full-Game Moneyline (+103 or better)
Zerillo's Bets for Monday, June 10
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- Minnesota Twins F5 (-188, Risk 0.5u) at FanDuel (flat to -202)
- Minnesota Twins / Colorado Rockies, Under 8.5 (-120, Risk 0.5u) at BetMGM (bet to -12o or 8, -102)
- San Francisco Giants (+110, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +103)
- Tampa Bay Rays (+137, 0.5u) at WynnBet (bet to +123)
- Toronto Blue Jays / Milwaukee Brewers, Under 8.5 (-108, 0.5u) at DraftKings (bet to -115)
