Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
As a reminder, you can find all of my bets in the Action Network App and get live alerts every time I log a new bet.
You can also find expert projections for every MLB game in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, May 24.
MLB Predictions Friday | Expert Picks, Props & Previews
Giants vs. Mets
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | +118 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +146 | 7.5 -122o / -100u | -138 |
Kyle Harrison (SF) vs. Christian Scott (NYM)
The New York Mets are in a great buy-low spot Friday when Christian Scott takes the mound looking to snap a three-game losing streak.
I’m a huge believer in Scott, who has graded out extremely well by underlying metrics. He has a 3.14 xERA, generating a 29%+ whiff rate on 3-of-4 pitches despite not racking up as many strikeouts. His Stuff+ sits at 103 with a 113 grade on his splitter and 117 on his slider.
Scott has been great at limiting barrels (4.1%) and hard hits (34.7%) but has been unlucky in the BABIP department (.340). Expect positive regression for the right-hander who has been great in the early going.
Kyle Harrison matches up against Scott, and the left-hander grades out below Scott in most metrics. He has a 4.11 xERA and a 92 Stuff+, allowing more hard hits (42%) and double the barrel rate (8.8%) than his opponent.
The southpaw should be allowing more home runs — .82 per nine in 2024 vs. 2.08 in seven starts last year — and has benefitted this season from pitching at home. At Oracle Park, Harrison has allowed just one home run in 26 innings. On the road, he’s allowed four home runs across 29 innings.
The Giants enter fresh off a grueling series against the Pittsburgh Pirates that featured three bullpen meltdowns and plenty of high-leverage situations. Tyler Rogers has pitched three times in three days while Randy Rodríguez has seen action back-to-back as well.
I’m looking to sell the Giants in what I believe is the bottom of the market for the Mets. Give me New York on the moneyline.
Bet: Mets Moneyline (-136 via BetRivers)
Dodgers vs. Reds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -102 | 10 -110o / -110u | -158 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 10 -110o / -110u | +134 |
James Paxton (LAD) vs. Graham Ashcraft (CIN)
The props are not yet out for James Paxton, but he is among the top fade candidates for the next couple of weeks. Perhaps no pitcher has successfully evaded negative regression more than the southpaw. It's become impressive to be honest.
Paxton has a 74 Stuff+ and has not been impressive in the slightest. While his control has been better of late, Paxton's K-BB% is zero. Yup, he's struck out just 13% of hitters. Underlying metrics all suggest Paxton should be hit much harder, with an xERA (5.54) nearly three runs higher than actual (2.84).
The southpaw is getting crushed and giving up a ton of fly balls — pitching to contact in the process — but they've often come with no one on base and rarely in consecutive order. While I am a bit nervous of fading the Dodgers as a whole Friday, I am looking to fade specifically Paxton, and there are several ways.
In six innings against the Reds last time out, Paxton struck out just two batters. There's no reason to believe Paxton will have a turnaround and begin to miss bats, especially with Cincinnati struggling much more against righties than lefties in the strikeout department. Look toward his strikeouts props. Or you could look at his under outs; it's only a matter of time before he is hit hard and his inconsistent control could lead to plenty of long innings.
Tyler Stephenson is also the batter I think is best suited to hit Paxton hard. He hit a home run off the southpaw in that last start and has a 144 wRC+ against left-handed pitching. His isolated power (.297) is also dominant, with five of his hits going for extra bases.
Bet: James Paxton Unders
Guardians vs. Angels
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +136 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -112 |
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -164 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -104 |
Logan Allen (CLE) vs. Patrick Sandoval (LAA)
Last Opening Pitch, I wrote about buying Patrick Sandoval, as he was among those due for positive regression. He came out and shut down the Texas Rangers lineup en route to a first five victory.
Sandoval remains a buy-low candidate. He has a 3.60 xERA and 3.05 FIP compared to a 4.59 ERA. His struggles in 2023 were nothing more than a facade as his underlying metrics look more like his previous seasons (‘21-22).
The southpaw has improved his strikeout rate while lowering both his walks and barrels allowed. He has a .351 BABIP and 64% strand rate, two numbers that should positively regress toward career averages.
While the Guardians rank inside the top five in wRC+ against left-handed pitching, this is an offense that has largely struggled in years past. Their strikeout rate remains high and I’m more a believer in them negative regressing vs. southpaws than the Angels. LA is sixth in wRC+ against LHP.
Logan Allen is the southpaw on the bump for Cleveland and I’m looking to sell him fresh off two straight six-inning shutouts. Allen’s Stuff+ (75) is well below average and he ranks in the bottom 15% of all pitchers in hard-hit rate allowed (45%). He is not generating the same chase and whiffs as last season while being barreled more in the process.
I’m siding with the much better starter Friday and avoiding the bullpens in the process. We know how dominant the Cleveland back end has been. Take LA F5 up to (-125).
Bet: Angels F5 Moneyline (Play to -125)
Astros vs. Athletics
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +102 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | -164 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -122 | 8.5 -100o / -122u | +138 |
Justin Verlander (HOU) vs. Ross Stripling (OAK)
The Athletics just had a grueling series with Colorado where we saw back-to-back extra-innings games. Like the Giants, the A's had plenty of high-leverage situations for its relievers and even Mason Miller seemed mortal amid this three-game series. He is likely unavailable as is Michael Kelly for the series opener.
Starting for Oakland is Ross Stripling, who has made a 180 when it comes to his barrels allowed — he has also given up just a 33.5% hard-hit rate — but he pitches to contact and rarely generates whiffs. He also ranks in the bottom 7% of all pitchers in xBA (.299).
I tend to believe Stripling will regress toward the last four seasons when it comes to barrels (10%+ in 3-of-4 years). He also happens to really struggle against lefties, two of which anchor the top of that lineup. Thus far, Stripling has allowed a .345 average and .855 OPS against left-handed hitters.
Given the Athletics' bullpen usage of late, the Astros should have no problem putting up runs after Stripling is done — even when he is in. The wind should also benefit hitters despite a large park.
Justin Verlander is opposite Stripling and he has begun to seem mortal of late. Aside from seven shutout innings against the lowly Tigers, Verlander allowed 11 runs over 9.2 innings against the Brewers and Yankees. He ranks in the bottom 1% of all pitchers in ground-ball rate and allows a double-digit barrel rate. He does not strikeout many batters (18.7%) and has benefitted from a .228 BABIP. His xFIP is also a concerning 5.22.
Houston has the No. 1 offense from a wRC+ standpoint over the last two weeks. Consider the over here. If you don't want to back the Athletics offense, look toward the HOU team total over. I also like Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run given his recent upward trend in both isolated power and hard-hit rate since his struggles and subsequent day off.
Bets: Over 8 | Astros Team Total Over
