Welcome to Opening Pitch, our daily column that you'll find throughout the 2024 MLB season.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share favorite bets and provide some betting notes and analysis.
You can find expert projections for every MLB game on Friday in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub.
You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my favorite bets for Friday, June 7.
MLB Predictions Friday | Expert Picks, Odds, Preview Today (June 7)
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -120 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +102 |
Logan Allen (CLE) vs. Ryan Weathers (MIA)
Now here's a line that's ever so curious.
You've got a struggling starter in Allen who finds himself as the favorite, which makes some sense given his offense is certainly the better one in this game, but the total is suspiciously low. It would seem both are bait, but I've never shied away from taking bait when it makes sense to me — especially when I have a strong disdain for a pitcher.
Weathers is certainly a guy I do not like, and frankly do not understand. The lefty should be a power arm by all accounts with a fastball that sits right around 96 mph, and his changeup has been a spectacular pitch carrying a .181 xBA and strong 40.1% whiff rate, but he's nothing more than a glorified Kyle Gibson.
The issue is that Weathers' fastball is getting torched, which is likely due to the fact that he's had a long history of walking batters and is trying to shore up his weaknesses as he develops at 24 years of age. More strikes have led to a five-point rise in strikeout rate, but it's still just league-average at 22.1%, which isn't nearly good enough to outweigh the risk that's come along with peppering the strike zone.
The lefty has allowed a 40.6% hard-hit rate through 12 starts, and while over half of the batted balls against him are coming on the ground, pitching to contact is going to be a real struggle with the worst defense in the league behind you. The Marlins are dead last in Outs Above Average (OAA), and the unfortunate part here is that the -18 OAA they've earned have come entirely on account of their infield.
The Guardians rank 10th with a .256 average against ground-ball pitchers this year and their .404 SLG in this split ranks seventh. To top things off, they're fourth in wRC+ to left-handers with a handsome .176 Isolated Power (ISO).
So, I think while Allen has been the weaker of the two arms, the delta between these two might not be that wide considering the matchup.
Miami has a measly 68 wRC+ against southpaws — last in the league — and while it has hit .260 over the last two weeks, its walk rate is a stunningly-low 3.7%, which has come along with a very poor .102 ISO. Allen's issues with contact shouldn't be nearly as glaring against one of the worst offenses in baseball, and I like the Guardians as a result.
Bet: Guardians Moneyline (-120 to -130)
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| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -106o / -114u | -106 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -178 | 7.5 -106o / -114u | -110 |
Cooper Criswell vs. Garrett Crochet
Criswell has burned me before when I've waxed poetic about his game, but I'm willing to get hurt again with the White Sox standing on the other side of the field.
Red Sox pitching coach Andrew Bailey has performed miracles on the soft-tossing righty, who's become a starting pitcher once again at the age of 27 and has posted an incredibly reasonable 3.92 ERA through 43 2/3 innings. Criswell's continued to bring his walk rate down, landing around 5% to this point in the season, and with a solid-enough .243 xBA, he hasn't had to deal with too much traffic on the basepaths.
Aside from one brutal road outing against a surging Orioles offense a couple of weeks back, Criswell has been extremely trustworthy. He's scattered hits every now and then, but he's allowed a homer in just four of his 10 appearances and has kept slugging to a minimum on account of his 70th-percentile ground-ball rate.
Now, I was burned by the Orioles when I predicted that a team which struggles with ground-ballers would have a bad night against Criswell, but that offense might as well be the '27 Yankees compared to the White Sox, who have hit just .217 this season (dead last in the Majors).
Yes, that's a call to batting average in 2024, and if you don't like it, it's frankly too bad. I make the rules. We're talking about a pitcher who's really only gotten himself into trouble by allowing base hits, limiting power and walks, so the number of hits a team will get per at-bat sure would seem to matter — wouldn't it?
Anyway, the White Sox own a stunning .176 average against ground-ball pitchers this year, which also ranks last, and before you come after me, I'll point out that they're hitting .233 against fly-ball arms with a .672 OPS compared to a .520 OPS versus launch angle-avoiders.
With that said, I like the under in this one. My job isn't to tell you things you already know like "Garrett Crochet is amazing," I'm here to remind you why pitchers you may think are middling may actually have some success. You make money in this business by finding ways to love the most unlovable arms in the game, and Criswell has to be one of them.
The Red Sox are on a tear at the dish in this series, but they've had the benefit of facing two very bad pitchers. The positive news for Chicago is that Crochet is, indeed, amazing and its bullpen will be surprisingly well-rested despite the blowout on Thursday with just Jared Shuster and Tim Hill likely unavailable here.
Not having Shuster will hurt, but Hill and back-end arm Justin Anderson, also used on Thursday, would probably hurt this team more than they would help it. In a close game, they can still go to their best three relievers and have lefty Tanner Banks for matchups.
Bet: Under 7.5 (-120) — Play to 7 (-108)
Diamondbacks vs. Padres
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +164 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -200 | 7.5 -110o / -110u | -118 |
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) vs. Michael King (SD)
It pains me to say it after cheerleading for him all these years as a lockdown relief arm, but Michael King kinda stinks. It's not his fault — San Diego is where talent goes to die — but the fact of the matter is he's traded in the high strikeout numbers we saw out of him as a reliever for more expected hits, and in the process of stretching back out, he's watched his walk rate balloon to 10.1%.
King is going to be in for a test here against a Diamondbacks team that has found some life offensively over the last week, posting a 124 wRC+ on account of some wonderful power numbers. They do have a tendency to strike out a lot, but we've touched on the fact that the righty is striking out fewer guys with a slightly depressed swinging strike rate and a downturn in called strike rate. Command has been a real issue, which isn't great news considering most of Arizona's strikeout issues stem from its high called-strike rate.
The biggest thing, however, is the fact that Arizona continues to sell out for power and has not only found success in that of late, but should be able to hit King where it hurts, given his .418 xSLG is 50 points higher than it was a year ago, and far higher than it's been over the last two seasons combined.
On the other side of this, Pfaadt has picked up where he left off last season, which is to say, he's shown gradual improvements as the year went on. If you weren't following the righty (and I wouldn't blame you) he was twice sent down to the Minors and both times returned better than he was before.
As it goes with many young arms, he's learning as he goes and the sum of the parts have been positive with a 2.80 xERA and .227 xBA. He's had some issues on fly balls, but spacious Petco Park should be as kind to him as his pitcher-friendly home park, where he's thrown five times to a 3.77 ERA.
Bet: Diamondbacks Moneyline +105 (to -112)
