Welcome to Opening Pitch, my daily baseball betting column that features my MLB predictions and expert picks for Monday, May 19.
The goal for Opening Pitch is to highlight top daily projection edges for MLB moneylines and totals, share my favorite bets and props, and provide some betting notes and analysis. For Monday, I preview Brewers vs Guardians, Cardinals vs Phillies, Marlins vs Cubs, Rockies vs Rangers and Angels vs Padres. I also have more picks in my betting card at the end of the article.
My projections for every MLB game on Monday are available in the Action App (on both the PRO Projections tab and the game pages) and our Projections Hub. You can also shop for the best lines on our MLB Odds page.
Here are my MLB predictions and picks for Monday.
Note: A parlay of these picks is not the author's formal recommendation. These are recommended as straight bets that are explained in detail below.
MLB Predictions, Expert Picks — Monday, May 19
Reds vs. Pirates
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 8 -110o / -110u | -120 |
| Pirates Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -165 | 8 -110o / -110u | +100 |
Nick Lodolo (CIN) vs. Mitch Keller (PIT)
The season-long bullpen numbers for these teams are comparable. The Pirates rank 22nd in xFIP, 26th in K-BB%, 12th in Stuff+ and 19th in botERA, while the Reds sit 24th in xFIP, 21st in K-BB%, 15th in Stuff+ and 14th in botERA.
However, Pittsburgh has a key advantage when it comes to rest. Tony Santillan, Emilio Pagan and Graham Ashcraft pitched all three days against the Guardians over the weekend, adding to the work that Luis Mey and Taylor Rogers have done in three of the last four days.
The Pirates, meanwhile, are coming off a 1-0 loss to the Phillies in which Paul Skenes pitched for eight innings to give the 'pen a rest.
Lodolo, who has been injury-prone throughout his career, is trending down after pitching like a future ace in his rookie year (3.94 xERA, 20.9% K-BB%, 3.36 botERA). Now, he projects closer to a league average starter (projected FIP range 3.91 to 4.60; average of 4.15; xERA up from 3.72 to 4.10; K% down from 24.7% to 19%).
His velocity has nearly dropped a full tick as well (94.1 mph to 93.3), while his Stuff+ has gone down from 104 to 101 and his botERA has jumped from 3.66 to 4.00.
Lodolo has thrown fewer four-seamers (43% to 30%) with more sinkers (13.3% to 21.5%) and changeups (16.4% to 21.5%), but his curve (114 Stuff+, 27% usage) is his only above-average pitch.
Keller (projected FIP range of 3.98 to 4.21; average of 4.00) projects as well or better than Lodolo but has worse results (4.8 xERA, 4.25 xFIP, 11.9% K-BB%, 97 Stuff+, 4.04 botERA).
His velocity is trending up in season with his four-seamer up 0.8 mph and sinker up 1.1 mph in May compared to April.
Cincinnati has advantages at the plate (93 vs. 74 wRC+; 21st vs. 29) and on the bases, but the Pirates defense has the edge in Defensive Runs Saved (10th vs. 15th) and Outs Above Average (11th vs. 12th).
I project the Reds at -102 in the first five innings but the Pirates at +110 for the full game, which I would play to -103.
Pick: Pirates ML +110 (Play to -103)
Mets vs. Red Sox
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 9 -115o / -105u | -130 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -140 | 9 -115o / -105u | +110 |
Kodai Senga (NYM) vs. Hunter Dobbins (BOS)
The Mets are coming off a loss to the Yankees on Sunday Night Baseball. While they have to travel overnight, the Red Sox get to stay in Boston.
Data from Retrosheet shows there could be a bit of a hangover for New York tonight.
From 2009-24, teams playing in the same city after SNB have gone 60-64 (.483) with -0.09 runs per game compared to the league average. When teams have had to play in a new city after SNB, they've gone 55-66 (.455) with -0.42 runs per game compared to the league average.
I'm also buying Red Sox starter Hunter Dobbins right now (3.65 xERA, 16% K-BB%, 99 Pitching+, 4.09 botERA). He has four pitches with a Stuff+ rating greater than 100 in his cutter, slider, curveball and splitter.
On the other side, the Mets' bullpen has stumbled since losing lefties A.J. Minter and Danny Young for the season, posting a 4.26 xFIP (20th), 11.1% in K-BB% (19th), including a 4.87 xFIP (25th) and 5.4% K-BB% (29th) against lefties.
Genesis Cabrera is now the lone lefty now in the 'pen and has a career 4.4 xFIP vs. left-handed bats.
That means a lot of righties will come out of the pen, and Rafael Devers has a career 139 wRC+ vs. RHPs compared to a 99 vs. LHP. Jarren Duran also has a 123 wRC+ vs. righties, while Wilyer Abreu sits at 157.
I project Boston at +105, so I'd play it at +125 to +114.
Pick: Red Sox ML +125 (Play to +114)
Astros vs. Rays
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9 -105o / -115u | +115 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +145 | 9 -105o / -115u | -135 |
Colton Gordon (HOU) vs. Ryan Pepiot (TB)
The early returns say Steinbrenner Field has an impact on scoring. The stadium has a 102 Park Factor for runs (+2%) but has the second-most dramatic effect from wind blowing in or out, trailing only Wrigley Field. In fact, it has a +14% HR Park Factor.
Monday's weather calls for 87 degrees (93 real feel) with 6-7 mph winds blowing out to the short porch in right field.
On a weather-neutral day in Yankee Stadium, which has the same dimensions, I'd make this total 8.63. But, given Monday's weather, that has increased to 9.68.
I'll take over 8 (-115) to over 9 (-115).
Pick: Over 8 (Play to Over 9 at -115)
Angels vs. Athletics
| Angels Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | +110 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +155 | 9.5 -115o / -105u | -130 |
Jose Soriano (LAA) vs. J.T. Ginn (A's)
Like Steinbrenner Field, the early returns on Sutter Health Park say it helps when it comes to scoring runs. In fact, it has a Park Factor of 123 (+23%) and plays extremely hitter-friendly with the dimensions of a neutral park.
Sacramento hasn't reached peak heat yet (avg. 82 in May; 89 in June; 95 in July, 93 in Aug.), but Monday calls for an 87-degree day with 7 mph winds blowing out to right field.
Plus, these are two terrible defensive teams.
The Angels rank 27th in Defensive Runs Saved (-24) and 17th in Outs Above Average (-4), while the A's rank dead last in both metrics with a -38 DRS mark and a -19 OAA number.
The bullpens have also struggled mightily thus far. They're essentially in the bottom eight of all key performance indicators, including marks of 25th and 27th in xFIP; 22nd and 24th in K-BB% and 26th and 28th in botERA.
They should combine to score some runs, though, with the Athletics ranking 10th (107) in wRC+ and the Angels sitting 19th (98) since Mike Trout went down.
I have 10.35 runs projected for this game, so I'll take over 9.5 (-110) and bet it to over 10 (-105).
Pick: Over 9.5 (Play to Over 10 at -105)
Sean Zerillo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, May 19
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- Pirates ML (+110 · Play to -103)
- Red Sox ML (+125 · Play to +114)
- Cubs vs. Marlins Under 9 (-110 · Play to 8.5 at +100)
- Astros vs. Rays Over 8.5 (-115 · Play to 9 at -115)
- Phillies vs. Rockies Under 10 (-105 · Play to -110)
- Angels vs. Athletics Over 9.5 (+100 · Play to 10 at -105)
