Padres vs. Dodgers Game 1 Odds
| Padres Odds | +190 |
| Dodgers Odds | -225 |
| Over/Under | 7.5 (-105 / -115) |
| Time | 9:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Padres and Dodgers will renew their rivalry on Tuesday night when the two meet in the NLDS. San Diego is feeling good about itself after beating Max Scherzer en route to a 2-1 Wild Card Round win on the road, while the Dodgers are putting forth what could be their best lineup in some time.
What three elements of this game can we be certain of to craft a parlay? Let's break that down.
The Parlay (+295):
- Dodgers ML
- Julio Urias 5+ Strikeouts
- Cody Bellinger to Get a Hit
Same-Game Parlay – Padres vs. Dodgers Game 1
Dodgers ML
Let's get the obvious out of the way — the Dodgers are going to win this game. They were 14-5 against the Padres this season with a couple San Diego defeats coming later in the season as games lost meaning for L.A. On top of that, the pitching matchup is ridiculously skewed in their favor.
Julio Urias owns a 1.27 ERA in his last 14 starts dating back to mid-July and he has pitched to a 1.50 ERA against the Padres in his four starts against L.A.'s bitter division rival this season.
In the postseason, he's also been a star with one bad start against Atlanta last season marring what was otherwise a near-perfect track record in big games. Even with that, he still owns a 3.52 postseason ERA in 53 2/3 innings and shouldn't have too many problems against a Padres team which ranked 15th in wRC+ to lefties.
Mike Clevinger, meanwhile, has a 4.65 xERA in 114 1/3 innings this season and surely doesn't appear to be anywhere close to on the same plane as Urias. With a pitching matchup this lopsided and the Padres coming off a series where they hit .240, I'd favor the Dodgers big-time.
Julio Urias 5+ Strikeouts
In that Mets series, the Padres did hit just .240. They also struck out 31 times in three games, which amounts to just about 10 in each. I think Urias should be in prime position to hit this number, which is very generously priced at -140 in the Same Game Parlay generator.
Urias has struck out at least five in four of his last five starts, two of which came against the Padres. In his four outings against San Diego this season, he was able to hit this number a total of three times.
The Padres finished the season with a 25.3% strikeout rate over the final two weeks of the season and have some serious strikeout candidates up and down the lineup.
Even in what would be considered a "good" offensive showing for them in New York, the Friars still swung and missed at a high rate. I'd expect Urias, who will probably last into the seventh here, to hit five Ks.
Cody Bellinger to Get a Hit
I don't really think you can use logic here, because Bellinger defies all logic. He looks lost at the plate, and in big moments he raises his level. The former MVP hit .165 last year only to hit .353 in the postseason, and I think we see a similar script this season.
Bellinger is feeling it at the plate, finishing the season with nine hits in his final 22 at-bats, and he's certainly shown some signs of improvement over the last two months, hitting .241 from September into October.
We've already addressed the serious issues Clevinger has, and he's not much of a strikeout pitcher. This is a great spot to buy low on Bellinger.
