Braves vs. Phillies Game 4 Odds
| Braves Odds | -125 |
| Phillies Odds | +105 |
| Over/Under | 9 (+102 / -121) |
| Time | 2:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | FS1 |
| Odds via BetRivers. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The MLB playoffs have far from disappointed so far, with another incredible full day of baseball on Friday and a full slate of action set for today.
The underdogs are looking ~live~ in these series, and some of the best teams in baseball are going to have their backs up against the wall this weekend, which is going to make for some incredibly must-watch action.
It's also been a great start to the postseason for my same game parlays. We hit again on Wednesday, this time at +700, thanks to a four-legger that came down to Nick Castellanos staying in the on-deck circle for a fun, profitable full game sweat.
Now we're back with this series again for Saturday, and Atlanta suddenly has its back against the wall, needing two straight wins to continue its title defense.
Let's get to Saturday's parlay.
MLB article plays: 3-3 (91.9 percent ROI… very sustainable of course…)
MLB Action Network App plays: 277-303-34 (3.6 percent ROI… OK maybe that’s a better sample)
The Parlay (+1400):
- J.T. Realmuto over 1.5 total bases (+125)
- Charlie Morton under 5.5 strikeouts (-120)
- Phillies team total under 3.5 (+117)
Same-Game Parlay – Braves vs. Phillies Game 4
J.T. Realmuto Over 1.5 Total Bases
Realmuto has been relatively quiet this postseason despite coming into October as one of the hottest bats in baseball. So far, he's yet to collect an extra base hit, and is hitting .211 for the postseason. While everyone else on the Phillies was breaking out Friday, Realmuto collected just one little single.
Thankfully for Realmuto, the conditions are prime Saturday for that to change. For one, Realmuto has hit far better at home than on the road this season. He carried a 151 wRC+ at home compared to 105 on the road in 2022. He also, surprisingly, hit better vs RHP (129 wRC+) than LHP (125) in 2022, but that actually tracks with his career as a whole (112 vs RHP to 109 vs LHP).
He also handles fastballs and curveballs incredibly well, and that's over 80 percent of Morton's repertoire. FanGraphs actually projects Realmuto at 1.53 TB, so getting this at plus money (even when accounting for median, not mean, in the prop market) is solid value.
Charlie Morton Under 5.5 Strikeouts
This isn't so much a fade of Morton as a thought that it's "All Hands on Deck" for Atlanta today. Morton actually posted a solid 28.2 percent strikeout rate this season, but Atlanta was able to use some of its more pedestrian arms on Friday because of the blowout nature of the loss.
Now, with this game being a must-win, Brian Snitker isn't going to let Morton give up more than a run or maybe two. The leash will be exceptionally short, given that he has all the following arms fully rested: A.J. Minter (2.06 ERA), Collin McHugh (2.60), Kenley Jansen (3.38) and Raisel Iglesias (0.34).
Obviously you don't want to burn all those arms before a potential Game 5, but in order to play Game 5, you have to get there.
Finally, and I say finally because I don't weigh this as much as others but tend to think of it as a last consideration, but Morton failed to clear this number in four of his five starts against the Phillies this season. The number also moved while I was writing this piece, which is always a bummer but a good sign.
Phillies Team Total Under 3.5
OK, here is the heat check. I don't blame you if you watched Game 3 and said there's no way on planet earth this Phillies team is getting shut down on Saturday. I also don't blame you if you refuse to play inversely correlated plays together as you would be doing here with the Realmuto total bases over and the Phillies team total under.
Stephen A. Smith level's of However: This actually correlates decently with the second leg.
If Atlanta is truly is an all-hands-on-deck scenario, as we've seen whenever the Rays do this, it's really dang hard to score against a turnstile of a team's best relievers, one after the other.
Say Morton goes two times through the order in 4 2/3 IP, then you've got those four names above each taking basically an inning to shut down the Phillies as Snitker sees best fit.
These SGPs have to be fun, let's have some fun.
