Padres vs. Mets Game 2 Odds
| Padres Odds | +145 |
| Mets Odds | -175 |
| Over/Under | 5.5 |
| Time | 7:37 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
| Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The San Diego Padres beat up Max Scherzer on Friday night, shocking Queens with a Game 1 victory and moving one win away from the NLDS and a meeting with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The Mets have just about the best person you could imagine on the mound in a do-or-die game in Jacob deGrom. He'll look to keep New York's season alive against Blake Snell and San Diego.
We have three picks on tonight's game below, our best bets from Saturday night's pivotal Game 2 in New York.
MLB Odds & Picks For Padres vs. Mets Game 2
Padres Moneyline +150
Odds via FanDuel
Jules Posner: Jacob deGrom has not pitched in the postseason since 2015 and if it were 2021, it would be easy to say he's a much different pitcher now. However, it is 2022 and realistically deGrom wasn't very deGrom-like in his last four starts of the season.
In that span he went 0-3 with losses to the Atlanta Braves, the Chicago Cubs, and the Oakland Athletics sprinkled in. He posted a 6.00 ERA over that span, but he also posted a 3.68 FIP and a 1.31 xFIP.
Additionally, the Mets' bullpen has been excellent down the stretch posting the second-best FIP and seventh-best ERA over the past month of the season. However, the Mets spared some of their most valuable arms in the blowout on Friday. They should be all systems go on Saturday night.
The Padres are still relatively heavy underdogs tomorrow, but this matchup seems to be more of a coin flip than the odds would indicate. Take the Padres moneyline.
Sean Zerillo: I anticipated finding an edge on the Padres in a Snell vs. deGrom Game 2 matchup, and that came to fruition with the Mets losing Game 1.
Our +150 series ticket is in an optimal position. Still, I'm happy to bet Snell and the Padres against a Mets offense that has been far closer to average against lefties, as opposed to their No. 1 ranking against righties (post-trade-deadline).
New York should have Starling Marte (153 wrC+ vs. lefties) and Darrin Ruf (116) back in the lineup against a southpaw for the first time since early September.
Still, Snell has looked dominant in the second half, as his pitch velocity has increased; approaching his career-high on September 21:
The velocity bump has translated to his entire arsenal, and he's redoubled his slider usage — and drastically increased its effectiveness — as a result.
Conversely, Jacob deGrom may be pitching through injury after missing most of the 2022 campaign.
Through his first six starts of the season (all in August), deGrom averaged 99.4 mph on his fastball and 93.1 mph on his slider. In his past five outings, those levels have dipped to 98.5 mph and 92.2 mph, respectively.
And while those numbers remain elite (in addition to a 1.51 xFIP over that span), deGrom has allowed three runs or more in four of those five outings and appears to be 90% of his peak self, with his velocity trending in the wrong direction:
I projected the Padres as 40.9% underdogs (+144 implied odds) for Game 2 and would bet San Diego's moneyline down to +157 (38.9% implied) at a two percent edge.
You can also look to play the Padres' F5 moneyline at +175 or better at a comparable edge; I'll wait for more books to open lines before firing into that market.
Based on opening odds, I don't see value in the total in either half of the matchup unless an Over 5.5 (-102) or F5 Over 2.5 (-113) comes into play.
No Runs – First Inning (-185)
Odds via FanDuel
Shayne Trail: The Mets will send out arguably the best NRFI pitcher in baseball with Jacob DeGrom, who is 10-1 to the NRFI with a perfect 6-0 home NRFI split.
deGrom's most crucial matchups today are against Manny Machado, who is 6-for-20, and Juan Soto who is 3-for-15.
The Padres will counter with their veteran, Blake Snell. Slightly surprisingly, Snell has been better to the NRFI this year and is 21-3 overall with an 8–1 road NRFI split. Snell has also dominated Mets' Francisco Lindor, who is a measly 3-for-25.
deGrom is by far the best NRFI option on the board today. Snell has been terrific this year putting his terrible road splits behind him and posting a 8-1 road NRFI record.
I would feel comfortable laying the (-185) price here over on FanDuel for essentially a 3-out NRFI.
