Aces are wild on Wednesday's slate, and we're going to be backing a few of them as there's value to be had.
Let's find out where as we dive into my MLB player props for Wednesday, August 7.
MLB Player Props Wednesday
- Michael King Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-175, BetRivers)
- Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-160, bet365)
- Kutter Crawford Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140, bet365)
Padres vs. Pirates Player Prop
My Prop Bet #1: Michael King Over 5.5 Strikeouts
The San Diego Padres are set to hand the ball to Michael King this evening in the second game of their series against the Pittsburgh Pirates.
King has proven to be the key piece in the trade return for Juan Soto, as he's pitched to a 3.26 ERA and 1.16 WHIP through 21 starts.
King's electric arsenal has made him tough to hit, as his average exit velocity against sits in the 97th percentile and his hard-hit rate is in the 95th percentile. However, he's also produced a ton of swings and misses with a strikeout rate in the 85th percentile.
He has a tremendous matchup tonight. The Pirates have the eighth-highest strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, and King's total is too low for this matchup.
King has recorded at least six strikeouts in 62% of his starts this season. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -163.
While it's not the biggest edge we'll review today, it gives us the green light to back King in a smash spot.
Pick: Michael King Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-175)
Brewers vs. Braves Player Prop
My Prop Bet #2: Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts
We have ourselves a rematch as Freddy Peralta and Chris Sale will square off for consecutive turns through the rotation.
However, we're just going to focus on Peralta, as he's likely to repeat the effort we saw from him last week.
Peralta is quietly one of the best strikeout artists in baseball. His strikeout rate is in the 89th percentile and his whiff rate is in the 90th percentile.
He'll face a Braves lineup that has the fifth-highest strikeout rate against righties on the season and the second-highest rate over the last 15 days.
Last week, Peralta struck out seven Braves over six innings of work, and now his total is set lower coming into this outing.
Peralta has struck out at least six batters in 77% of his starts this season, which gives us implied odds of -335, so the juice is certainly worth the squeeze here.
Pick: Freddy Peralta Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-160)
Red Sox vs. Royals Player Prop
My Prop Bet #3: Kutter Crawford Over 3.5 Ks
Lastly, we turn our attention to Kutter Crawford, who'll take the ball for the Red Sox against the Kansas City Royals.
This over is contrarian, as the Royals come into this matchup with the lowest strikeout rate in baseball over the last month and the second-lowest on the season.
However, their low strikeout rate has impacted Crawford's strikeout total too much.
Crawford may average slightly less than a strikeout per inning, but he has strikeout upside, as his swinging strike rate is above average.
Crawford has averaged 5.4 strikeouts per start, which includes a four-strikeout performance against the Royals on July 13.
Overall, Crawford has exceeded this total in 91% of his 23 starts this season.
At the current price, Crawford's over is one of the best plays on the board.
Pick: Kutter Crawford Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140)
