A few aces are slated to start tonight and I'll be targeting both Luis Castillo and Tyler Glasnow. Additionally, Juan Yepez has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball and will look to continue his strong play against Ryne Nelson and the Diamondbacks.
If you're looking to bet MLB player props, you've come to the right place. So, let's dive into our three MLB player props for Tuesday, July 30.
MLB Player Props: Tuesday, July 30
- Luis Castillo Not to Record A Win (-175, DraftKings)
- Juan Yepez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110, DraftKings)
- Tyler Glasnow Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-130, DraftKings)
Luis Castillo has enjoyed another solid season, but hasn't been as dominant as in years past. His strikeout rate, 23.7%, is above league average, but it's also his lowest since the 2018 campaign. His 3.86 xERA is also his highest since 2018. Still, there's some value in targeting his MLB player prop bets.
Tonight, Castillo has a tough matchup against the Boston Red Sox. In his career, he is 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA in three career starts against Boston. That includes allowing seven runs in 11 innings at Fenway Park.
Castillo's earned runs line is at 3.5 tonight, but I prefer "not to record a win" because there are a few ways we can cash this bet. Seattle is 28th in runs scored, but has made moves to improve the lineup, such as acquiring Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner, who may debut tonight. However, the only evidence we have of the Mariners' new lineup came against the hapless White Sox and in last night's game. Seattle did end up scoring seven runs last night, but the majority came after it fell behind 12-1 and the game was essentially decided. Should the offense struggle once again in a low-scoring game, Castillo could get stuck with a no-decision — even if he throws well. A lack of run support has contributed to Castillo only having eight wins in 22 starts this season.
Alternatively, Castillo could get roughed up like Gilbert did last night. Boston has scored six runs or more in eight of its past nine games and is averaging 7.3 runs per game in that span.
In 20 games with the Nationals this season, Juan Yepez is hitting .364 with 14 RBI and a .978 OPS. He also has nine multi-hit games, 10 doubles and two home runs.
As a result, Yepez has recorded at least two total bases in 14 of 20 games. Tonight, he has another great matchup as he'll face Ryne Nelson, who has a .280 xBA, a 4.38 xERA and a 40.4% hard-hit rate. Nelson is allowing right-handers to slash .330/.369/.492 with 15 doubles and three home runs.
Yepez is hitting .450 against lefties this season, but is still very formidable against right-handers with a .333 batting average and a .936 OPS. Whether it's another multi-hit game or an extra base hit, I like Yepez's chances of getting two total bases tonight.
The Diamondbacks will also have an eye on the Dodgers vs. Padres game, the two teams ahead of them in the NL West race. Tyler Glasnow will get the ball for the Dodgers. Despite a recent IL stint, Glasnow is sixth in baseball and third in the NL with 147 strikeouts over 114 innings. However, he will face a Padres lineup that has the lowest strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
Glasnow has already faced San Diego twice this season. In his first start with the Dodgers, he was only able to punch out three over five innings. However, he registered 10 against the Padres in May at Petco Park. In that game, Glasnow pitched about as well as one could without getting a win. He allowed one hit — a solo homer — in seven innings, but got little run support as the Dodgers fell 2-1.
If Glasnow lands somewhere in the middle of his first two starts against San Diego, he should clear this line with at least six strikeouts. He has fanned six in eight of his past 10 starts and in 14 of 19 starts this season. One of the misses came last week in his return from the IL against the Giants, but he threw 91 pitches in five innings. A more efficient outing will allow him to work into the sixth inning, which means he'd only need to average one strikeout per inning. It's also worth noting for tonight's MLB picks that Glasnow is +280 for eight strikeouts and +520 for nine strikeouts on FanDuel.
