On this Tuesday, three players that I will be eyeing tonight are Troy Melton, Gerrit Cole, and Jeremy Pena.
Let's dive into my MLB player props for Tuesday, July 28.
MLB Player Props Today
- Troy Melton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-113, FanDuel)
- Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110, BetMGM)
- Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-138, DraftKings)
Orioles vs Tigers Props
Melton did not make his season debut until May and even though he allowed just two earned runs in his first two starts, he tallied just four strikeouts combined. Since then, he has recorded at least five strikeouts in each of his last eight starts, including nine each against the Athletics and Angels. He has averaged six innings per start and he has pitched to a 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP this season.
The Tigers have the most coveted trade asset in Tarik Skubal as teams wait for them to make a decision on whether or not he will be traded. However, Melton has been a part of a promising duo with Keider Montero. The Orioles gave Montero one of his worst outings in months as he allowed nine hits, six runs (four earned) and struck just one batter in 4 and 1/3 innings.
The Orioles are still fifth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season and are 10th over the last month. That makes them a better matchup for Melton, who generates more swing-and-miss than Montero. He has a 31.9% chase percentage and 26% whiff rate while ranking in the 78th percentile in expected batting average allowed and fastball velocity.
The Tigers have not had an off day since the All-Star and just got consecutive outings of five innings or less from Framber Valdez and Montero. It would be ideal for A.J. Hinch if Melton worked deep into this game. If so, a strikeout per inning would give him over this line for the sixth time in six starts.
Pick: Troy Melton Over 5.5 Strikeouts
Yankees vs White Sox Props
Last Wednesday, Max Fried was activated from the IL, marking the first time that he and Gerrit Cole were both active as teammates as they started a doubleheader against the Pirates. Along with Cam Schlitter (the current favorite for AL Cy Young), the Yankees have a trio that is among the most formidable in baseball and they will need to lean on it as injuries continue to mount in their lineup. The Yankees have their Big 3 going in the first three games of this four-game set against the White Sox, but Fried only lasted three innings last night as he is still on a pitch limit.
Now, it is Cole's turn and he has started to look more like Gerrit Cole of late. Last time out, he fanned 11 batters in seven innings against the Pirates. It was his second start this season with 10+ strikeouts and the third time in four starts that he had seven or more. Cole had six strikeouts in his first start against the White Sox this season.
I like him to find one more tonight considering the White Sox are eighth in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers. Trey Yesavage, Shane Bieber, Kumar Rocker and Hunter Brown are among the right-handers to clear this line against the White Sox recently.
Cole has worked six innings in each of his last three starts. Another quality start will give him a great chance to clear this line and make Aaron Boone very happy after short outings from Will Warren and Fried.
Pick: Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 Strikeouts
Astros vs Angels Props
Yordan Alvarez has begun to separate himself in the MVP race as he is currently on pace to win the AL Triple Crown. He has 78 RBI this season and one teammate that is usually on base for him is Pena. Since being activated from the IL on July 10, Pena is 19-for-48 (.396) with five home runs, nine RBI, and a 1.152 OPS.
Pena is hitting .316 for the season and ironically, he will become of Alvarez's biggest challengers for the batting title if he gets enough ABs to qualify. Tonight, he will face Reid Detmers, who can look like a Cy Young candidate on some nights and an AAAA pitcher on others. He has allowed six total hits in his last two starts, but also allowed five earned runs three times in his last six starts. Right-handed have 39 extra-base hits against Detmers, including 10 home runs.
Pena is 7-for-20 (.350) with a double and two runs batted in. He has a hit in nine straight and 11 of 12 games since being activated and he will look to continue that tonight. As a result, he has recorded two hits, runs, and runs batted in seven straight games and eight of his last 10 games while averaging four HRRBI per game. He has also cleared this line in nine of his last 15 games against the Angels and had a hit and two runs scored last night.
Pick: Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In
MLB Player Props for Tuesday, July 28
- Troy Melton Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-113, FanDuel)
- Gerrit Cole Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110, BetMGM)
- Jeremy Pena Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-138, DraftKings)
