As we begin a new work week, I will be targeting three hitters in the player prop market today: Esmerlyn Valdez, Drake Baldwin, and Jordan Walker.
Let's dive into my MLB player props for Monday, July 20.
MLB Player Props Today
- Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105, bet365)
- Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 Total Bases (-107, DraftKings)
- Jordan Walker Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-129, DraftKings)
Pirates vs Yankees Props
With a pitching staff anchored by Paul Skenes and getting Jared Jones back from injury, the Pirates were expected to pitch well this season.
However, their offense has been beat even the most optimistic projections as they lead the MLB in batting average and rank second in runs scored.
That is despite Oneil Cruz being out of the lineup since early June. Valdez is one of the Buccos who has filled the void and then some.
Over his past 17 games, Valdez is hitting .358 with 17 runs scored, eight home runs, 23 runs batted in, and the Pirates being 11-6 in that span.
He has hit six of those home runs over his past seven games with two over the weekend in Cleveland.
The All-Star break did not cool him off, as he has driven in a run in each of his last seven games.
As a result, he has cleared this line in each of his last seven games and eight of his past nine.
Tonight, he will face left-hander Ryan Weathers, who has reverse splits from an average standpoint. However, 13 of the 16 home runs he has given up this season have been to right-handed hitters.
Valdez has six home runs apiece against left and right-handed pitchers. However, against left-handers, he also has four doubles, a triple, and 1.507 OPS.
Valdez matches up well with Weathers and is +353 for a home run on DraftKings.
A long ball would also help him clear this line. He has recorded four hits, runs, and runs batted in five times in his last six games, but tonight we only need two.
Pick: Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In
Padres vs Braves Props
Baldwin has been one of the best catchers in the MLB this season and he represented the National League as the starting catcher in the All-Star game.
However, he struggled in June as he returned from an oblique injury and he went for 3-for-48 at the plate.
His numbers are still recovering from that stretch, but yesterday's performance will certainly help.
Baldwin went 5-for-5 with two solo home runs as the Braves won 8-5 to take the series from the Rangers.
It was Baldwin's third consecutive multi-game and another one would give him two total bases, even if they are just two singles.
He is hitting .500 over his last seven games with three home runs, 10 RBI, and a 1.397 OPS.
Baldwin will face JP Sears tonight, and he has held left-handers to a .125 batting average in his four MLB starts this season.
However, in two of the last three years, left-handers have hit .289 or better against him.
Additionally, Baldwin has not been fazed much by left-handed pitchers with an .810 OPS and seven of his 18 home runs against them.
He is priced at +422 to hit a home run tonight, and that would also give him two total bases.
Pick: Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 Total Bases
Cardinals vs Angels Props
Walker's breakout season carried into the All-Star break as he participated in the Home Run Derby for the first time.
He made himself no friends in Philadelphia when he homered on his final six swings to steal the title away from Kyle Schwarber.
Walker has 22 home runs on the year, but he has not homered yet since the second half started, but that does not mean that he stopped hitting.
With a hit in all three games against the Diamondbacks, Walker has now recorded a hit in 18 of his past 20 games and enters tonight's game on an 11-game hitting streak.
In that span, Walker is hitting .300 with four home runs, and a .926 OPS while scoring 17 runs and driving in 18 runs.
Walker is hitting .286 against right-handed pitching this season and will face Jose Soriano tonight.
Soriano looked like he might run away with the Cy Young Award in April. However, over his last 15 starts, he has a 4.83 ERA and giving up essentially a hit per inning, which has resulted a 1.52 WHIP.
He has given up three earned runs in five of his last seven starts.
Given the traffic that Soriano has allowed lately, Walker will have a good chance to extend his hitting streak. However, he is also essentially averaging a run scored and RBI per game of late.
As a result, he has recorded two hits, runs, and runs batted in nine times in his last 10 games and 15 of 18 games while averaging three per game. This line a steal with those hit rates.
Pick: Jordan Walker Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In
MLB Player Props for Monday, July 20
- Esmerlyn Valdez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105, bet365)
- Drake Baldwin Over 1.5 Total Bases (-107, DraftKings)
- Jordan Walker Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-129, DraftKings)
