On this Saturday, three hitters I like are Munetaka Murakami, Ketel Marte, and Riley Greene.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for the MLB games on Saturday, April 25.
MLB Player Props Today
- Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135, BetMGM)
- Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100, Fanatics)
- Riley Greene Over 1.5 Total Bases (+108, DraftKings)
Nationals vs. White Sox Player Props
Murakami did not draw as much interest as expected when he posted because of his concerns about handling high velocity against MLB pitchers. However, he has quickly dispelled that notion. Through the first month of the season, Murakami leads the MLB with 11 home props/runs-and-bases" target="_blank" rel="noopener">runs in 26 games. He has an OPS+ of 183 and is slashing .256/.398/.622 thus far.
If his power surge continues, I would not be surprised if he is priced for a home run in the +200 range like Kyle Schwarber, Aaron Judge, and countryman Shohei Ohtani. He is +330 on FanDuel for a home run. That might be generous considering the matchup.
Jake Irvin enters this start 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in his first five starts. While righties have a higher batting average against him, three of the four home runs he has allowed have been against left-handed hitters. He is giving up a lot of hard contact, with a 52.2% hard-hit percentage and a 14.9% barrel rate, ranking in the ninth percentile or worse in both.
Meanwhile, Murakami ranks in the 99th percentile in xSLG, barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard hit percentage. That has translated into extra-base power, as he has seven home runs in his last 10 games. He has a hit in nine of those games with three multi-hit games. Another multi-hit game or home run will give him two total bases again today, which he has cleared in seven of his last 10 games.
Pick: Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 Total Bases
Padres vs. Diamondbacks Player Props
When the MLB heads to Mexico, runs are expected because of the high altitude. The total is 16 for today, which two of the last four Mexico City Series have reached. That also inflates props for hitters, but if today's game is a high-scoring affair, I would expect Marte to be involved.
Marte has recorded two bases five times in his last 10 games, which would cover his typical line most days. Today, we will need a third base, but he gets a good matchup against German Marquez. Thanks to two scoreless outings thus far, Marquez has a 3.86 ERA, but he has a 5.48 xERA. His xERA, xBA, barrel rate, and hard hit allowed percentage are all in the 22nd percentile or worse.
Marte is 14-for-44 (.318) with three doubles, a triple, two home runs, and a .968 OPS against him. Marte has four extra-base hits in his last 10 games and four multi-hit games. Considering his history against Marquez, I like his chances for an extra-base hit or two tonight, which will help him clear his bases. Additionally, if the Diamondbacks' bats go off in the friendly conditions, Marte could get six or seven plate appearances as the leadoff man.
Pick: Ketel Marte Over 2.5 Total Bases
Tigers vs. Reds Player Props
Over the last two years, Riley Greene has 60 HRs, 7.5 WAR, and two All-Star selections. Yet, he is still an occasional target of criticism in Detroit because of his strikeouts and prolonged slumps. While he can be a streaky hitter, he is currently hot and playing this weekend in the Great American Ballpark, which means this is the time to back him.
Greene enters today's game on a six-game hitting streak, and he has hit two of his three home runs in the last two days. Over his past 16 games, Greene is slashing .377/.476/.642 with five doubles, three home runs, 12 RBI, and 12 runs scored. His hot stretch also improved his advanced metrics, as he ranks in the 80th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, hard-hit percentage, and barrel rate, among others.
Greene will face Brady Singer tonight, with whom he is familiar from his time with the Royals. Greene has three hits in 14 at-bats against Singer, but he might have better success today. Through his first five starts, Singer has a 5.32 ERA (5.17 xERA), 1.65 WHIP, and .297 xBA. Left-handed hitters are hitting .333 with four extra-base hits and a .820 OPS against him thus far.
Greene has recorded three bases or more in four of his last five games, thanks to four multi-hit games. If Singer continues to struggle, expect that trend to continue.
Pick: Riley Greene Over 1.5 Total Bases
MLB Player Props for Saturday, April 25
- Munetaka Murakami Over 1.5 Total Bases (+135, BetMGM)
- Ketel Marte Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100, Fanatics)
- Riley Greene Over 1.5 Total Bases (+108, DraftKings)
