A couple of left-handed bats I like tonight are Cody Bellinger and Rafael Devers. I will also be fading on Nathan Eovaldi after a couple of dominant outings against the Yankees.
Let's dive into my MLB player prop picks for Monday, May 11.
MLB Player Props Today
- Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-140, FanDuel)
- Nathan Eovaldi Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-130, Fanatics)
- Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140, BetMGM)
Yankees vs Orioles Player Props
It was a rough weekend for the Yankees as they were swept in Milwaukee and lost their first series since early April. Bellinger saw his hitting streak come to an end on Friday. However, he got back in the hit column on Saturday and Sunday and I like him to get another tonight.
In 16 career starts, Orioles right-hander Brandon Young has a -1.0 WAR, 5.74 ERA, and allowed 15 home runs in 78 and 1/3 innings. Last season, he got torched by left-handed batters as he allowed 11 doubles, six home runs, and a .315 batting average against them.
While right-handed hitters have a higher average against him this season, he has allowed five of his six extra-bases hits to left-handed hitters. He is also allowing a 42.3% hard hit rate.
While there are other Yankees who hit the ball harder (Aaron Judge and Ben Rice for example), Bellinger should excel in this matchup as well. Against right-handed pitchers, Bellinger is slashing .293/.393/.475 with 19 runs scored, 17 RBI, and 10 extra-base hits. Lately, he has been teeing off on everyone as he is hitting .444 with two home runs and 13 RBI in May.
Bellinger is +500 on DraftKings for a home run and his last two home runs were against the Orioles nine days ago. However, he has recorded two hits, runs, and runs batted in combined at a 60% rate this season and over his last 10 games. He is averaging 3.6 per game over his last 10 games, but tonight we just need two.
Pick: Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In
Diamondbacks vs Rangers Player Props
Over his last two starts, Eovaldi has allowed just one run over his last 15 innings. Both of those outings were Yankees, who Eovaldi has a 1.65 ERA against his last nine starts. That nearly matches the 1.73 ERA that he posted last season. However, even with those last two starts, Eovaldi's ERA is still 4.15 ERA this season.
In his first six starts, Eovaldi allowed two runs in five of them and five runs in three of them. As a result, Eovaldi pitched into the seventh inning in just one of those starts and he pitched five innings or fewer in six of them. He also has pitched five innings or fewer in each of his last three outings against the Diamondbacks.
Arizona is not as potent offensively as they were in past years, but their hitters have a .275 batting average against Eovaldi with four home runs and 14 RBI.
However, if Eovaldi does pitch well tonight, he still may not see the seventh inning. Managers love when their starters can work deep into games and save their bullpens. However, in today's game, they have to be nearly flawless by their execution and by limiting their pitch count for that to actually happen.
Given how Eovaldi has fared against teams not named the Yankees this season, I am willing to bet he will not be as dominant tonight. Additionally, we have a playable line on his outs as opposed to when under 18.5 is in the -175 range for some starters.
Pick: Nathan Eovaldi Under 18.5 Outs Recorded
Giants vs Dodgers Player Props
For virtually the last decade, Rafael Devers has been one of the best hitters in the MLB. However, over the last year, it has been a rough go for him, particularly since being acquired by the Giants. Over the last couple of weeks though, he is starting to come alive again.
Devers has recorded a hit in nine of his last 10 games and 14 of his last 20 games. He has two multi-hit games in his last four games as well as two home runs. He is also hitting .333 in May and will carry that into Dodger Stadium where the Giants will take on the division-rival Dodgers.
Devers has not seen Roki Sasaki before, but this year has been a struggle for him. He has a 5.97 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, and left-handed hitters are hitting .288 with four doubles and home runs against him. Additionally, he has allowed a 12.2% barrel rate and 44.4% hard hit percentage.
Devers recorded two total bases in five of his last eight games and four bases in three of his last four games. With him finding his form of late and great value on him tonight, I'll be backing him for two total bases tonight.
Pick: Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases
MLB Player Props for Monday, May 11
- Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + Runs Batted In (-140, FanDuel)
- Nathan Eovaldi Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-130, Fanatics)
- Rafael Devers Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140, BetMGM)
