Today, the MLB has an eight-game slate that's heavy on afternoon duels. You can start your day by watching the No. 1 prospect in baseball, as Paul Skenes makes his third career start.
Across the state, Zack Wheeler will get the ball for the Phillies, but he may not be making his longest outing of the year.
Additionally, Luis Arraez will look to stay hot in Cincinnati.
So, without further ado, let's dive into our MLB player props for Thursday, May 23, featuring prop bets for Skenes, Wheeler and Arraez.
MLB Player Props: Thursday, May 23
- Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts (+105, FanDuel)
- Zack Wheeler Under 18.5 Outs (-152, FanDuel)
- Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+100, DraftKings)
Through his first two MLB starts, Skenes has cleared his strikeout prop with seven Ks in four innings and then 11 in six innings. His last start was particularly dominant as he tossed six no-hit innings.
Today, he'll make his first career start that's not against the Cubs. That'll give him an advantage against hitters who haven't seen him before.
In both starts, Skenes went over his strikeout line (6.5).
Today, his line has crept to 7.5 strikeouts. He'll face a Giants lineup that's 18th in strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers.
However, Skenes will present a difficult matchup for most teams moving forward. He has 18 strikeouts in 10 innings thus far.
One encouraging development is that he threw 100 pitches in his last start. The Pirates are going to handle him with kid gloves, but if Skenes has a longer leash, piling up strikeouts will be no issue.
That's particularly the case when the line is 7.5 opposed to 9.5 — like it may be with a few more starts under his belt.
However, he's already proven that he can punch out double-digit batters in the majors. If he does so again, you can back him at +360 for 10 strikeouts on DraftKings, +560 for 11 strikeouts on DK and +900 for 12 strikeouts on FanDuel.
Pick: Paul Skenes Over 7.5 Strikeouts
While the Pirates are hoping Skenes develops into their ace for years to come, Wheeler is already the Phillies' ace.
Wheeler wants the ball in big moments and often works deep into games, saving the Phillies' bullpen. However, this season, that's often meant working six innings instead of seven.
Wheeler has recorded 18 outs or less in six of his 10 starts this season. In three of those starts, he's pitched exactly six innings. As a result, he's averaging six innings per start. For him to record 19 outs today, he'll need to retire the first batter in the seventh inning.
However, I'm expecting him to be out of the game by then.
The Rangers' offense hasn't been as consistently potent as it was last season. However, they're still 11th in batting average and 10th in runs scored in MLB. They're also seventh in walk rate, drawing free passes in 9.4% of their plate appearances this season.
Typically, Wheeler doesn't walk many batters, but he's entering this start with a 7.8% walk rate, which is his highest since the 2018 season.
As a result, Wheeler has walked two batters in five of his last seven starts, walking three in four of them.
Even without them, a few long at-bats would drive Wheeler's pitch count up. That was the case when he threw 106 pitches in just five innings against the Angels back on May 1.
That started a trend of him alternating between five or innings less and pitching seven innings or more over his last four starts.
If the trend continues today, Wheeler won't see the seventh inning.
Pick: Zack Wheeler Under 18.5 Outs
Arraez has won a batting title in each of the last two seasons. Given the way he's performed over the past few weeks, he's certainly coming for a third.
Since being acquired by the Padres, Arraez is hitting .391 and he has a hit in 14-of-16 games. He's nearly hitting .500 (.485) during his current seven-game hitting streak, as he has two hits in each of his last seven outings.
Arraez typically needs two hits (+135 today) to record two total bases, since most of his hits are singles. However, last night, he took care of the total bases in his first at-bat of the game; he hit a leadoff home run, his first of the season.
Playing at Great American Ballpark certainly didn't hurt, and I don't think he'll be complaining about his matchup today.
Arraez is 3-for-6 with a double against Frankie Montas. Left-handers have three doubles, four home runs and a .797 OPS against Montas this season.
Additionally, Arraez has two hits each against Sam Moll and Brent Suter should the Reds try to bring a left-handed reliever in to retire him later in the game.
He's recorded two total bases in seven straight and eight of his last nine games. He's in a good spot to continue those trends today.
Pick: Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Total Bases
