This afternoon, the Diamondbacks look to complete a sweep of the Reds, who have lost seven games in a row. Offense has been the culprit as the Reds have scored just 18 runs in that span. Today, they may not fare much better against Slade Cecconi and the Diamondbacks.
Speaking of sweeps, the Yankees have won nine straight games against the Astros dating back to last season and will look to complete the season series sweep today. Juan Soto homered last night in an 8-4 victory and will look to stay hot against Ronel Blanco today.
Meanwhile, the Guardians will be in Chicago to take another AL Central rival after taking two of three from the Tigers. Ben Lively has been sharp in his first four starts and may pitch the Guardians to another victory today.
Find my MLB player props and bets for Thursday, May 9 below.
MLB Player Props, Bets Thursday (May 9)
- Slade Cecconi Under 2.5 Earned Runs +100 (DraftKings)
- Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases +120 (DraftKings)
- Ben Lively 5 Strikeouts/Cleveland to Win +170 (FanDuel)
The Cincinnati Reds are 17th in the MLB in runs scored this season. However, I was surprised to see that they are last in batting average with their talented young core. The last seven games have not helped as they are hitting .150 in that span. In particular, Elly De La Cruz has been unable to get going after a hot start as he is hitting .154 over his last seven games and .185 over his last 15 games.
De La Cruz has eight home runs this season but can change the game by just being on base with his 21 stolen bases. With him having limited impact lately, the Reds scored two runs or fewer in five consecutive games. That streak did end last night, but they still managed just three runs, with the final run coming in the ninth inning.
That means the last seven starters that the Reds have faced have allowed two runs or fewer. Today, the Reds will face Slade Cecconi, who is coming off a rough outing with six earned runs allowed against the Padres. That bumped his ERA up to 4.96, but he maintains a 2.35 xERA and .179 xBA. He is also in the 75th percentile or better in Barrel Rate, Hard-hit Percentage and Walk Rate.
Additionally, Cecconi delivered quality starts in his first two outings, allowing just three earned runs total at Seattle and San Francisco. While it is too early to say he is a better road pitcher, today's start is on the road as well.
Cecconi has thrown 64, 84 and 85 pitches in his first three starts. He could extend to 90 today, but 85 could be the max for him, which would cap him at six innings. A start with five or six innings and two earned runs would keep him under this line.
The Yankees needed a left-handed bat this offseason, and one of the two best available was Juan Soto. He was also coveted by the Yankees because they know they will have to get through the Astros to win the American League. The Astros currently sit in last place in the AL West, but I could make the case that Soto has played a large role in that.
In six games against Houston this season, Soto is hitting .577 with two home runs, nine runs batted in and a 1.479 OPS. The Yankees are 6-0 in those games and are 12 games over .500 while the Astros are 12 games under .500. Flip those results, and both teams would be .500 entering this game.
Against the Astros, Soto is averaging 3.7 total bases per game this season. He has hit this line in five of the six meetings, including the last five. He has also hit this line in four of his last six games overall.
Today, he will face Astros right-hander Ronel Blanco for the first time. Soto is hitting .347 with four doubles and seven home runs against right-handed pitchers this season. He also has a hit in 13 of his last 14 games, including six in his last two games. Whether it is a double or home run, I like Soto to continue his dominance against the Astros today.
After trailing the Tigers 4-3 entering the bottom of the ninth yesterday, the Guardians tied the game on a David Fry home run and won it on a single by Brayan Rocchio in the 10th inning. They improved to 24-13 and lead the AL Central by 2.5 games. Tonight, they are -164 on the moneyline against the White Sox, who are 9-28 and have the second-worst record in the MLB.
Ben Lively will get the start today and enters with a 2.08 ERA through his first four starts. Thus far, he may be a tad bit lucky as he has a 3.67 xERA. However, he also boasts a 28.6% Strikeout Rate, which ranks in the 82nd percentile of qualified pitchers. Lively had has had five strikeouts in each of his first four starts, three of which were against the Red Sox and Braves. Lively punched out seven in both starts against the Red Sox.
The White Sox are 16th in Strikeout Rate against right-handers this season, but none of their expected starters have faced Lively before. That gives the advantage to Lively, particularly the first time through the lineup. If Lively can take care of the strikeouts early, we will just need Cleveland to win the game. Lively has pitched five innings in three of his first four starts as well.
That is particularly relevant if you prefer to back him to record a win instead, which is +115 on DraftKings. However, Lively has just one win thus far, even though Cleveland is 2-2 in his starts. With this player performance double, we do not need him to be the pitcher of record, and these odds are a little more favorable at +170.
