The Nationals have taken the first two games against the Tigers in Detroit and will go for the sweep today. They are underdogs with Patrick Corbin on the mound, but they might get length from him. However, Matt Vierling is one Tiger who will be looking forward to seeing him.
Meanwhile, the Pirates and Cardinals will play a rubber match in St. Louis. Mitch Keller will look to strikeout Masyn Winn, among others.
First pitch is fast approaching, so let's examine three MLB player props for Thursday, June 13, featuring bets on Corbin, Vierling and Winn.
MLB Player Props: Thursday, June 13
- Patrick Corbin Over 16.5 Outs Recorded (-125, DraftKings)
- Matt Vierling Over 1.5 Total Bases (-120, DraftKings)
- Masyn Winn Over 0.5 Strikeouts (-120, BetMGM)
Over the last few seasons, there may not be a pitcher whom I have looked forward to fading more than Patrick Corbin. The 34-year-old left-hander enters this start 1-7 with a 6.15 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. There also isn't anything encouraging about his StatCast page.
While Corbin's two-time All-Star form may be long gone, he still eats innings.
This season, Corbin has pitched six full innings six times and worked five and two-third innings in two other starts. As a result, he has hit this line in eight of his 13 starts this season. Even in his misses, he recorded 15 outs in one start and 16 in two others.
Again, he has not pitched all that well in doing so. A few weeks back against Minnesota, Corbin allowed eight runs on nine hits against Minnesota, but he still worked six innings and threw 106 pitches.
Today, however, Corbin may put a quality outing together. Over the last 30 days, the Tigers are 26th in on-base percentage and 28th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
Just last year, Corbin went six innings and allowed two runs against the Tigers. In that start, he shut down the Tigers' rising star Riley Greene, limiting him to o-for-3 with two strikeouts. Greene may be the only left-handed hitter who Corbin faces today as manager A.J. Hinch likes to stack his right-handed hitters against lefties.
Corbin has allowed two runs or fewer in three of his last six starts. The Nationals have also used four relievers in each of the first two games in this series, and manager Dave Martinez probably wouldn’t mind six innings from Corbin today. He can cash this line with two outs in the sixth inning today.
Last week, I backed Vierling against the Rangers, and not only did he go 0-for-4, but that game also started a 2-for-22 slump for him. However, I have to back him today considering his past success against Corbin. Vierling is 8-for-15 (.533) with a double, a home run and three runs batted in against Corbin. He faced Corbin frequently in his days in the NL East with the Phillies.
Vierling is hitting .300 against left-handed pitching thus far this season. Despite his recent slump, Vierling has hit this line in two of his last three games. He had a double on Sunday and led off the bottom of the first inning with a leadoff home run last night.
Vierling is +600 to hit another home run today. He will have a shot against Corbin, who is allowing right-handers to hit .316 with 11 home runs and a .935 OPS. Another solo shot today would also give Vierling four total bases, doubling what we need for him to clear this line this afternoon.
After getting a taste of the big leagues last year, Masyn Winn is enjoying a strong second act for the Cardinals. The young shortstop enters play today hitting .299 with three home runs, 24 runs batted in, eight stolen bases, .770 OPS and 2.2 WAR. He maintains rookie eligibility and finds himself on the periphery of the NL Rookie of the Year race at +3000. However, Winn has struggled recently with strikeouts.
In 10 June games, Winn has struck out 14 times in 45 plate appearances. He has struck out in nine of those games in that span, the lone exception coming when he went 3-for-3 with a walk against the Astros. For the season, Winn has an 18.8% Strikeout Rate, but that number has elevated to 31.1% this month. He also has a 30.6% Chase Rate and sits in the 34th percentile.
This afternoon, Winn is facing Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller, who has 74 strikeouts on the year and has fanned 16 in his last two outings. Winn has only faced Keller twice thus far, but one of those appearances did end with a strikeout. He figures to see him three times today along with likely one or two at-bats against Pirates relievers.
Batting leadoff in all but one game this month has helped Winn reach five plate appearances in several of those games.
That has helped him get more chances to produce but also more chances to strike out. As a result, this line has a 90% hit rate over the last 10 games, and I cannot pass that up at -120 odds.
