The Guardians and Astros have split the first two games in Houston and I have a feeling Thursday night's rubber match could end up being a slugfest.
With that in mind, I have my eyes on Steven Kwan and Kyle Tucker for my Thursday MLB player props.
MLB Player Props: Steven Kwan & Kyle Tucker Picks
Last season, the Cleveland Guardians ranked 27th in runs scored. They didn't make any substantial offseason additions to their lineup, but are up to seventh thus far this season. One reason for that major improvement is leadoff hitter Steven Kwan's hot start.
The 26-year-old ranks third in MLB with a .360 batting average and fourth with 27 runs scored. He has also showed more power with six doubles, two triples and three home runs. That has led to 11 RBI and a .915 OPS, which ranks 20th in MLB.
Tonight, Kwan will face Spencer Arrighetti, a rookie who has struggled in his first three starts. Arrighetti has actually been worse against right-handed hitters, but he will see a lot of left-handed hitters (like Kwan) in the Guardians' lineup. He has allowed a .286 batting average and five RBI to left-handed bats. Kwan is hitting .344 with nine extra-base hits and 20 runs scored against right-handers this season.
Kwan has gone 5-for-7 with two runs scored and two RBI through the first two games of this series. He has hit this line in the first two games, and in four of his past five. In that span, he is averaging 3.6 hits, runs and RBI. Expect him to clear this line again tonight.
Guardians starter Logan Allen has a 5.46 ERA and has allowed a .273 batting average against left-handed hitters. He will have to deal with two of the game's best tonight in Yordan Alvarez and Kyle Tucker. Alvarez has two home runs in his past five games, but those are also his only hits in that span. That pushes me to backing Tucker tonight.
Tucker is hitting .298 with eight home runs (tied for fifth in MLB), 21 RBI and a .978 OPS (ninth in MLB). However, his batting average goes up to .341 against left-handed pitchers and to .340 at home. He has four doubles and four home runs against left-handed pitchers and six doubles and four home runs this season.
Tucker is +340 to hit a home run on FanDuel tonight. That would clear this line, but so would a double. He has hit this line in seven of his past 10 games and in 10 of his past 15 games at home. He is also riding a seven-game hitting streak and has a hit in nine of his past 10 games. He has five multi-hit games in that stretch, so two singles would also cash us tonight. The trends and matchup both favor Tucker getting two total bases tonight.
