MLB Player Props, Picks
- Carlos Correa Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105, DraftKings)
- Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130, DraftKings)
- Aaron Judge Over 0.5 Home Runs (+240, BetMGM)
Aaron Judge and Gunnar Henderson keep hitting home runs, and they both have the matchups to leave the yard tonight.
However, first, we’ll begin in Arizona where Carlos Correa and the Twins will be concluding their series with the Diamondbacks.
So, let's dive into our top MLB player props for Thursday, June 27.
In June, Correa has been one of the MLB's hottest hitters, hitting .382 with four doubles, four home runs and 18 runs batted in. That's despite pulling back over the last week with four hitless starts.
However, sandwiched in between were still two three-hit games, including last night. Correa has seven games with three hits this month and 11 multi-hit games overall.
Correa may be in line for another multi-hit game with Jordan Montgomery getting the ball for the Diamondbacks. Correa is 4-for-14 (.286) with a home run and three runs batted versus him lifetime.
Right-handed hitters are hitting .316 with a .901 OPS against Montgomery. All eight home runs he's allowed have been to right-handed hitters as well.
In terms of handiness, Correa has been virtually the same hitter, hitting .305 against left-handed pitchers and .306 against right-handers. And plus, he's hitting .347 in day games.
With an afternoon start in Arizona, he could be in line for another big game, including two total bases.
Pick: Carlos Correa Over 1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Few hitters ambush pitchers like Henderson does in the first inning. Henderson has nine home runs in the first inning this season, second-most in the MLB.
He didn't homer in his first at-bat last night, singling in his first two at-bats. However, that was followed by a home run in the fifth inning, his 26th of the season.
Henderson has homered in four (including one with two) of his last 10 games, and he's +390 to hit another tonight.
However, in that same span, he's recorded two total bases in seven of his last 10 games, averaging 3.4 total bases.
He's also hit this line in five straight home games.
Tonight, Henderson faces Rangers right-hander Jon Gray, who he's 2-for-6 with a home run against. Gray is enjoying a strong season, but he's had an issue with left-handed hitters this season.
Four of the five homers he's allowed have been to left-handed hitters, along with six doubles and two triples. They're hitting .276 with a .803 OPS against him as well.
I like Henderson's chances of going deep again tonight, but he's done a good job of getting on base, hitting safely in 13 of his 15 last games. If he gets a hit again tonight, he likely gets two total bases as well.
Pick: Gunnar Henderson Over 1.5 Total Bases (-130)
The Yankees have hit their first rough patch in June, losing eight of their last 10 games. However, that hasn't stopped Aaron Judge from hitting home runs. Judge has homered in each of his last two games, three of his last five games and eight of his last 15.
Judge leads the league in home runs (30), runs batted in (77) and OPS (1.145).
Tonight, Judge returns to Toronto, where he hit his AL-record-tying 61st home run back in 2022. He'll face Jose Berrios in a matchup he's dominated. Judge is 12-for-29 (.414) with two doubles, four home runs, nine runs batted in and a 1.382 OPS lifetime against Berrios.
Now, the safer version of this play is his total bases, which is -130 tonight. However, Berrios has allowed 17 home runs in 16 starts this season.
Meanwhile, Judge has 18 home runs in 46 career games at Rogers Centre. Along with Shohei Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber, Judge typically has among the lowest odds to hit a home run on nightly basis.
Considering this matchup — and the fact we're getting over +200 when Judge has hit at over a 50% clip over the last two weeks — I'd rather just back Judge's home run than his total bases tonight.
