We notched our second straight winning day yesterday, and now we are in a position to finish the week very strong. I've found three arms that will help us do just that.
So, without further ado, let's dive into our MLB player props for Sunday, May 5 featuring bets for three starting pitchers on today's slate — Ryan Feltner, Ryan Pepiot and Nick Lodolo.
MLB Player Props: Sunday, May 5
- Ryan Feltner Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
- Ryan Pepiot Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-150)
- Nick Lodolo Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-155)
Colorado Rockies starter Ryan Feltner comes into this outing on the heels of the best outing of his career. Feltner tossed eight shutout innings while allowing just three hits and striking out three Miami Marlins.
However, it's easy to see that his outing is an outlier, and while he was efficient, he was not overly dominant as he struck out just three guys. So, while Feltner may have a good matchup this afternoon, he is not the guy to take advantage of it.
Feltner has gone under this total in 69% of his 37 career starts. That hit rate equates to implied odds of -223 that he will go under again today.
The Fade Train keeps chugging along, and our next stop will be in Tampa Bay. Ryan Pepiot will take the ball against the New York Mets as he looks to build on an excellent start to the season.
Pepiot comes into this start with a 3.82 ERA and a sparkling 0.87 WHIP. His ability to generate swings and misses has been a big factor in his early success.
He ranks in the 87th percentile in whiff rate and the 83rd in strikeout rate. However, this afternoon, he'll be up against a Mets lineup that boasts the sixth-lowest team strikeout rate in the majors.
Despite the tough matchup, his strikeout prop is at a total that's proven to be too high for him, and that is where our edge lies. In his 16 career starts, Pepiot has gone under this number in 13 of them.
While the sample size is not the largest, we do have implied odds of -427 here. With the matchup to back it up, the under is a strong play.
Our final stop will be in Cincinnati, where a resurgent Nick Lodolo will toe the slab against a fearsome Baltimore Orioles lineup. To his credit, Lodolo has been lights out in his first four starts of the season, but he has yet to face a lineup the caliber that he will this afternoon, and he's getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers.
The Baltimore Orioles come into this matchup leading the American League in wRC+ and the entirely Major Leagues in ISO. Now would also be a good time to mention that the Orioles are just 17th in team strikeout rate, so any mistake could be deadly in the Great American Ban Box.
As I alluded to earlier, Lodolo's strikeout prop is overly inflated. He has gone under this total in 63% of his 30 career starts. That gives us implied odds of -170.
So with one of the toughest possible matchups, and the odds in our favor, the juice is worth the squeeze here.
