I'm pinch hitting for Sunday's player prop duties, and I love taking a deeper look at pitcher props, specifically. That's where I'll focus today, as I grabbed two strikeout props and one earned run prop.
So, without further ado, let's dive into our MLB player props for Sunday, May 26, featuring prop bets for the White Sox vs Orioles, Yankees vs Padres and Astros vs Athletics.
MLB Player Props: Sunday, May 26
- Garrett Crochet Over Strikeouts
- Aaron Brooks Over Earned Runs
- Clarke Schmidt Under Strikeouts
Get ready to join the Garrett Crochet bandwagon on Sunday against the Baltimore Orioles. I'm looking to buy low on the White Sox star pitcher strikeout prop after a minuscule four strikeouts against the Blue Jays earlier this week. Before his last two starts, Crochet was arguably the unluckiest pitcher in baseball based on his ERA/FIP discrepancy, but it's evening out now. He hasn't allowed a run in his past 18 innings.
Crochet's penchant for strikeouts shows in his strong K/9 stat, which ranks third among starting pitchers behind Tyler Glasnow and Jack Flaherty. Another encouraging stat: Crochet secured 6+ strikeouts in eight of his 11 starts this year.
White Sox starters Erick Fedde and Mike Clevinger struck out 5+ batters in the first two games of the Orioles series. That's fairly impressive since the Orioles strike out just 21% of the time, but they aren't immune to the swing-and-miss. With a lefty on the hill for the White Sox, expect a heavy right-handed lineup, leaving Ryan O'Hearn's 8.8 K% on the bench.
The Oakland Athletics giving consistent starts to 34-year-old Aaron Brooks is a puzzling decision. He's pitched better than expected, allowing just six runs in 13 innings. I think a total blow-up game is due for Brooks, though. Brooks posted a 4.57 ERA in AAA Vegas, allowing opponents to hit .301. It's only a matter of time until the brakes fall off for the veteran righty, and I'm hoping to make money off the inevitable collapse.
With the likes of Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez, the Houston Astros boast one of the strongest hitting attacks in MLB. Tucker and the 700 million dollar man Shohei Ohtani have the league's best wRC+ at 192.
I'm looking at Brooks' earned run prop and taking the over. He's allowed three runs in his first two starts this year, including three against the Astros the first time around. Since the Astros already saw Brooks, it should make for a more comfortable approach at the dish. I'm taking the over on Brooks' earned run total.
I'm a huge fan of Yankees starter Clarke Schmidt. It's his first full season in the Yankees rotation, and he's making a name for himself — posting a 2.59 ERA in 59.2 innings with 64 punch-outs. Schmidt isn't a fireballer — in fact he doesn't even throw a four seam fastball. His pitch mix includes a sweeper, sinker, cutter and curveball. Notice a trend?
The trend is Schmidt has movement in all four of his pitches. Facing different movement in each of his pitches keeps opposing hitters off balance, and could generate some ugly swings.
However, Schmidt's focuses should shift to limiting hard contact against the Padres' light power, high-contact lineup, just like his rotation mate Carlos Rodon on Friday.
Manny Machado holds the Padres highest K-rate for an everyday starter at 23.2%, followed by Fernando Tatis Jr. at 21.9%. The next closest? Ha-Seong Kim's 17.8% K-rate. It's incredible for six of the nine everyday starters to have strikeout rates below 18%; that's unheard of in this era of baseball. Most teams live with striking out a bunch, but not the Padres. I don't see a ton of strikeouts here for Schmidt, so take under on his total.
