We began the weekend 1-1 as Matt Manning got scratched, and Teoscar Hernandez's late homer negated our call on Jose Urena yesterday. However, we are poised to get back into the green with another full odds board today, as there's three starters with tremendous value on Saturday's slate.
So, without further ado, let's dive into my MLB player props for Saturday, May 25 — featuring bets for Logan Gilbert, Spencer Arrighetti, and Aaron Nola.
MLB Player Props: Saturday, May 25
- Logan Gilbert Over 17.5 Outs (-160)
- Spencer Arrighetti Over 1.5 Walks (-140)
- Aaron Nola Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)
If you need outs, Logan Gilbert is the guy to call. The 27-year-old has been highly effective at working deep into ball games this season, and that should not change this afternoon.
Gilbert and his sparkling 1.01 WHIP take on a Washington Nationals lineup that ranks 26th in wRC+ and is hitting just .226 as a team. The Nationals also rank 26th in ISO, so it's clear they don't pose much of a threat to Gilbert.
As I alluded to before, Gilbert has been an innings eater in his young career. He has gone at least six innings in eight of his 10 starts this year and in 61% of his last 75 starts.
While this line is priced well, the great matchup gives us excellent value at -160 on DraftKings, as BallPark Pal's projected odds of him going over today are -241.
Spencer Arrighetit is the gift that keeps on giving, both to bettors and opposing hitters. The gift that he is consistent at giving is free passes.
The Astros rookie has dealt with loads of traffic on the bases in his first seven starts, and most of it is self-inflicted. Arrighetti's command has led to him making mistakes both in and outside the zone, which is shown in his WHIP of 1.81.
So, even in what should be a great matchup against the Oakland Athletics, we have to fade him until he shows otherwise. Arrighetti has walked at least two batters in each of his seven career starts, which already includes the Athletics, as he walked two on May 13.
For as bad as the A's are offensively, they will draw their fair share of walks. They rank 15th in team walk rate and know what to expect from Arrighetti this time around. So, fade the rookie one more time this afternoon.
Lastly, we head to Coors Field, where Aaron Nola will be taking the ball for the Philadelphia Phillies. Nola, who's been a slow starter over the past few seasons, has been dialed in during his first 10 starts this year.
He comes into this start with a 3,05 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP. However, the key to success tonight will be generating strikeouts. Fortunately, he has an excellent opportunity to do so, as the Rockies have the fifth-highest team strikeout rate in the majors.
We've also already seen Nola carve up this lineup this season. On April 15, Nola struck out nine Rockies in 7.1 innings pitched. While the environment may work against him a bit in this outing, both the matchup and Nola's history make this over too good to pass up.
He has struck out at least six batters in 66% of his last 83 starts. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -194 that he will go over again tonight.
