We got caught in Logan's Webb last night as he recorded too many strikeouts, but we are on the right track and primed to bounce back on Saturday. I've found three starters who are going to get us to the window this afternoon.
So, let's dive into our top MLB player props for Saturday, June 29.
MLB Player Props: Saturday, June 29
- Sonny Gray over 17.5 outs (-155, DraftKings)
- Chris Bassitt under 5.5 strikeouts (+105, DraftKings)
- Cole Ragans over 6.5 strikeouts (+106, FanDuel)
Sonny Gray has been dynamite for the St. Louis Cardinals this season as he enters this start with a 2.81 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. His dominance has stemmed from his ability to generate strikeouts, as his strikeout rate this season has risen by over seven percent.
A majority of his strikeouts come from his sweeper, which has been untouchable for the last two years. Opposing batters are hitting just .128 off Gray's sweeper in the previous two seasons, and this year, it has a 44.5 percent whiff rate.
Expect the sweeper to be a significant weapon against a scuffling Cincinnati Reds lineup. The Reds rank just 26th in wRC+ and 28th in OBP against righties. Given that they also have the fourth-highest strikeout rate, the Reds shouldn't offer much resistance to Gray.
Back him to complete six innings of work for the ninth time this season.
Chris Bassitt's strikeout rate has steadily declined over the last three seasons. In 2021, it was 25.2, but in 2024, it has fallen to 21.1. Bassitt has been unable to fool hitters this year as he sits in the 14th percentile in swinging strike rate and the 17th percentile in chase rate.
That is bad news for him heading into this matchup against the New York Yankees, who erupted from their slump on Friday. The Yankees lead the majors in wRC+ against righties and are just 19th in strikeout rate against them as well.
With the Yankees beginning a new upward trend and Bassitt's decline becoming more rapid, we should see him stay under this total, which he has done in 56 percent of his starts this year.
Cole Ragans has a tall task ahead of him this afternoon in the form of the Cleveland Guardians. The Guardians have punished left-handed pitching this season, but if there's any lefty that can out-match them, it's Ragans.
The Royals' lethal lefty has only improved on his breakout in 2023. Through 17 starts, he holds a 3.03 ERA and 29. 9 percent strikeout rate.
Additionally, this Guardians lineup is not immune to strikeout against lefties, despite hitting them well. They rank 14th in strikeout rate against them and have allowed plenty of lefties of a lesser caliber than Ragans to hit their over against them.
Overall, this line is mispriced, as Ragans has gone over this total in 65 percent of his starts this season. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -186 that he will go over and is great value on the current plus-money price.
