We have another glorious day of action on the diamond this Saturday. However, it's going to get even better by cashing some MLB player props. I've found three starters with tremendous value on them.
So, with that said, let's dive into our top MLB player props for Saturday, July 27.
MLB Player Props: Saturday, July 27
- Kevin Gausman under 18.5 outs (-150, DraftKings)
- Michael King Over 5.5 Strikeouts(-165, bet365)
- Marcus Stroman Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-115, bet365)
2024 has been a year of significant regression for Kevin Gausman. The 33-year-old enters this outing with a 4.55 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. Both marks are his highest since 2019.
This afternoon, he is being overvalued against the defending World Series champions in the Texas Rangers. The Rangers have regressed offensively as well this season, but they are in the thick of a divisional race, and their bats have begun to narrow the gap in the AL West.
Getting back to Gausman, despite showing some flashes of dominance this year, he's due for even more regression. His xERA of 5.14 tells the story of how much hard contact he has allowed this season.
Going up against a quality veteran lineup that doesn't strike out is a tall task for Gausman. Expect him to leave this one before the seventh.
Michael King was a key piece in the return for Juan Soto, and he's proven why this season. King's transformation into a starter has been tremendous as he enters with a 3.28 ERA and 1.18 WHIP on the season.
His wicked arsenal of pitches has made him nearly impossible to square up, ranking in the 98th percentile in average exit velocity. However, he's also generated plenty of strikeouts as well.
King ranks in the 81st percentile in strikeout rate, averaging 6.4 strikeouts per start this season. Tonight, his strikeout total sits at 5.5 with juice towards the under, as he'll be up against an Orioles lineup that ranks 23rd in strikeout rate against righties.
Despite that ranking, the Orioles have plenty of swing-and-miss hitters in their lineup, as four of their bats have strikeout rates over 21%.
Aside from all the matchup data, King has gone over this total in 62% of starts this season. That gives us implied odds of -163, which is a massive difference from the current plus-money price.
Marcus Stroman is a pitcher who has never been afraid of the bright lights. After the Yankees dropped the series opener to the Red Sox on Friday, he'll need to step up and stop the skid.
Stroman has been very solid this year in the middle of the rotation, pitching to a 3.51 ERA over 20 starts. He has also been one of the best ground-ball artists in the game, with his ground-ball rate sitting in the 79th percentile.
Generating grounders has been his key to working deeper into games this season. He has recorded an out in the sixth inning in 65% of his starts this year.
Stroman will also have an edge over this Red Sox lineup, as they have not gotten many looks at him. In his outing against them earlier this year, Stroman's command failed him, but Boston showed no power on balls in play.
If Stroman can limit the deep counts and free passes, we should see him make a bid for a quality start in a crucial game.
