With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, pennant races are officially on. This Saturday's slate is a big one, as many teams are jockeying for position in the standings. I'm targeting three starting pitchers who will be right in the thick of things.
So, without further ado, let's dive into our MLB player props for Saturday, August 3.
MLB Player Props: Saturday, August 3
- Aaron Civale Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-140, DraftKings)
- Mitch Keller Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-160, DraftKings)
- Bryce Miller Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-140, DraftKings)
Aaron Civale comes into this outing off his best start as a Milwaukee Brewer. He pitched into the six while only allowing two runs and striking out three Miami Marlins.
He'll look to carry this momentum into Saturday's start against another NL opponent, the Washington Nationals. The Nationals are a very young team that has done a great job of putting the ball in play this season, but their inexperience has not made them immune to striking out lately, as they are 15th in strikeout rate over the last 30 days.
The Nationals average 7.65 strikeouts per game, and Civale only needs to record four over an expected six innings of work. As for Civale, he has averaged five strikeouts per start this year and has eclipsed this total in 71% of his 21 starts.
That hit rate gives us implied odds of -245 that he will go over this afternoon. Combine that with the Nationals' recent uptick in strikeouts, and we have strong play to start our card.
For our next selection, we head to Pittsburgh, where we get to capitalize on some recency bias. Mitch Keller will take the ball for the Pirates this afternoon against the Arizona Diamondbacks.
If this sounds familiar it's because Keller started against the Diamondbacks in his last outing. Keller looked terrific, going seven strong innings, allowing just two runs and striking out six.
However, seeing the same team in back-to-back starts often favors the opposing lineup, as the reps against Keller will be fresh, and they know what to expect. It also helps that Keller's last start was an outlier performance from what we've seen from him this season,
Keller is due for significant regression as his 4.06 xFIP and SIERA dwarf his season ERA of 3.30. Additionally, this Diamondbacks lineup is hot.
The D'backs come into this game second in wRC+ against righties over the last 15 days and also have the second-lowest strikeout rate in that span.
All signs point to Keller not replicating his last outing. With the under giving us implied odds of -163, we can still fade him at the current price.
Lastly, we turn our attention to Seattle, where Bryce Miller will toe the slab against the Philadelphia Phillies. Miller has been very solid for the Mariners this season, but a closer look reveals that could change, and this matchup against the Phillies may begin his regression.
Miller has tremendous command but does not miss many bats, as his CSW ranks in the 28th percentile. This has led to a lot of hard contact, which is shown in his barrel rate and average exit velocity, which both rank in the bottom-10% of all qualified pitchers.
Those numbers can't sustain a 3.46 ERA, which is why his xERA is 4.13 and his SIERA is 3.97. Put all of that up against a talented Phillies lineup that ranks 12th in wRC+ and 18th in strikeout rate against righties on the season, and you have a recipe for a rough outing.
So, fade Miller as his second-half regression is set to begin Saturday night.
