The weekend was rough, but Monday is great because it's the start of a new slate and a chance to turn things around.
I've found three guys who will help us do that.
So, without further ado, let's dive into today's top MLB player props for Monday, May 13.
MLB Player Props: Monday Picks (May 13)
- Riley Greene Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-145 at DraftKings)
- Colin Rea Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135 at bet365)
- Spencer Arrighetti Over 1.5 Walks (-165 at DraftKings)
Advanced metric-wise, Riley Greene is one of the best hitters in the game. He ranks in the top 15% in nearly every expected category, as he's been hitting the ball with authority this season.
So, don't be fooled by his .248 batting average; his xBA is .260. If he can cut down on the strikeouts, he may even exceed that mark by year's end.
However, we can't get too far ahead of ourselves, as he has a tremendous matchup tonight.
Greene will be leading off against Sixto Sanchez. Sanchez was once the game's most highly touted pitching prospect, but injuries have riddled his career, and this year's sting has been filled with loud contact and traffic on the bases.
Fortunately for Greene, that's a recipe for success tonight. He's been tremendous at getting on and coming around to score in his young career, going over this mark in 57% of games played in the last three seasons.
While that hit rate doesn't quite match the price, I'm willing to pay a little more given his great matchup tonight.
Pick: Riley Greene Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (-145)
If you look at Colin Rea's stats over the past two seasons, you would think he's allergic to strikeouts. However, the truth is he's just a ground-ball pitcher who's only average at generating ground balls.
Tonight, Rea has a great opportunity — on paper — to rack up strikeouts, as he's up against a Pittsburgh Pirates lineup that comes in with the sixth-highest team strikeout rate in the majors.
Rea is getting far too much love from the oddsmakers, though.
Even in this great matchup, the value is on the other side. Rea has gone under this total in 61% of his last 33 starts. That hit rate puts the odds well in our favor, as we have an implied line of -156 that he'll go under again.
At the current plus-money price, this is an under you have to have on your card.
Pick: Colin Rea Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+135)
Our last stop will be in Houston, where Spencer Arrighetti will take the mound against the Oakland Athletics.
Arrighetti hasn't had a great start to his big league career, entering with an 8.44 ERA and a WHIP of 2.02.
The glaring reason for his struggles has been his command. He hasn't shown that he can locate in the zone or hit it with much consistency. His walk rate is among the lowest of all qualified starting pitchers.
Arrighetti has walked at least two batters in each of his first five starts, and it's a safe bet that he'll walk two more tonight.
While the A's are thought to be a dreadful offensive club, they've drawn their fair share of walks.
Surprisingly, Oakland ranks 12th in team walk rate, so if it can continue to be disciplined, it's likely that Arrighetti will get himself in trouble with free passes.
