We ended last week with a bang by sweeping the board yesterday. However, a new week presents fresh opportunities to capitalize on.
Let's dive into our MLB player props for Monday, May 6 featuring three starting pitchers: Jack Flaherty, Mitch Keller and Bryse Wilson.
MLB Player Props Monday (May 6)
- Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+105; bet365)
- Mitch Keller Over 1.5 Walks (-105; DraftKings)
- Bryse Wilson Under 16.5 Outs (-110; bet365)
It's safe to say that Jack Flaherty is back. The 28-year-old looks revitalized in Detriot, as he's been solid through his first six starts of the season. While his 4.00 ERA may not show it, Flaherty has been dominant at times, striking out 50 batters in 36 innings.
His last outing was one of the best of his career, as he struck out 14 batters and only allowed three baserunners in nearly seven innings of work. Strikeouts have been a big part of his success, and that should be the theme today, even in a tough matchup.
Flaherty will be up against a Cleveland Guardians lineup that is notorious for putting the ball in play. However, they have dropped off a bit in that category, and the matchup has driven Flaherty's strikeout prop far too low.
He has gone over this total in five of six starts this season, so at plus money, this is a great first addition to our card.
Command was an issue for Pittsburg Pirates starter Mitch Keller in the early years of his career, and while he seemed to have reigned things in last season, walks have become an issue yet again.
Keller's walk rate has jumped back up to what it was in 2022 after he lowered it by two percent in 2023. While the percentage isn't outrageous, the walks have been a consistent theme this year.
He has walked at least two batters in six of his seven starts this season. Those starts are part of a longer trend: Since 2022, Keller has walked at least two batters in 61% of his last 70 starts.
Given his struggles this season and the odds being in our favor long-term, this price has excellent value.
Lastly, we head to Kansas City, where the Milwaukee Brewers will hand the ball to Bryse Wilson for the fourth time this year. Wilson has been solid as he's transitioned out of the pen to fill in, but after one great outing, his lines are becoming inflated.
Wilson is coming into this outing after dealing six innings of one-run ball against the Tampa Bay Rays. While that outing deserves credit, the Rays have struggled offensively and lack power.
Tonight, Wilson will be up against an underrated Royals lineup. I say underrated because the Royals may be 20th in wRC+, but they are seventh in xBA and top five in both average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.
Wilson is a sinkerballer, but his ground ball rate is actually below the league average. On top of that, he doesn't miss many bats, so it appears the Royals are in line to due damage against him.
Look for Wilson to hit the showers early tonight.
