It's a new week, but we enter Monday's slate with some momentum as we went 5-1 this past weekend. I have a good feeling we'll stay hot tonight as there are three arms that offer great value tonight.
With that said, let's dive into our MLB player props for Monday, April 29.
MLB Player Props: Monday, April 29
- Clarke Schmidt Under 16.5 Outs (-115) at bet365
- Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100) at bet365
- James Paxton Over 2.5 Walks (+140) at bet365
We have picked on Clarke Schmidt quite a bit in the first month of the season, and thus far, it's been successful. What's great is that he's due for significant regression and will be up against a lineup that should knock him around tonight.
Schmidt has been very fortunate through his first five starts of the season, and the numbers show it, as his xERA is a full run higher than his actual ERA of 3.55. Tonight, he'll face the best lineup in the American League in the Baltimore Orioles, who lead the AL in wRC+.
It just so happens that these Orioles are also due for positive regression against Schmidt. In 76 combined at-bats, they have hit just .211 of Schmidt, but their average exit velocity of 90.3 mph tells a different story.
Overall, the club's xBA is 32 points higher, and their xSLG is 97 points higher. This points to a short outing for Schmidt, which has been the trend for him.
He went under this total in 77% of his starts last season, and has yet to surpass it this year. With this start being his toughest test yet, the under is the way to go.
ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.
Cincinnati Reds' lefty Nick Lodolo got a late start to the year as he worked his way back from injury. However, through his first three starts of this season, it appears he hasn't missed a beat.
Lodolo enters this game with a 2.02 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP. A big part of his early success has come from the number of whiffs he's generated.
Lodolo ranks in the 89th percentile in whiff rate and the 79th percentile in strikeout rate. Getting strikeouts is a big part of his game, and that is being undervalued in what is a tough matchup on paper for him tonight.
He's set to take the hill against the San Diego Padres, who hold the fifth-lowest team strikeout rate in the majors. However, that stat has driven Lodolo's strikeout prop far too low.
Not only has Lodolo gone over this total in two of his three starts this year, but he has gone over it in 69% of his 29 career starts. That hit rate gives us implied odds of -223 that he will go over again, which makes this a smash play at the current price.
For our final selection, we head out west, where James Paxton is set to take the hill against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Paxton's 2.61 ERA is deceiving as command issues have plagued him, and he's been extremely lucky thus far.
Paxton's xERA is nearly three full runs higher than his actual ERA, and his 1.55 WHIP is due to the number of walks he has surrendered. Paxton has walked 17 batters in 20 innings this season, which puts him in the bottom two percent of all qualified pitchers.
The Arizona Diamondbacks will do him no favors tonight. They are seventh in team walk rate and are a lineup due to producing much more than they have to this point.
Pricing-wise, Paxton has exceeded this total in three of his four starts this year, so getting this at plus money is a great deal. He's yet to prove he can command the zone consistently, and this is the matchup to take a shot against him here.
