The weekend is almost here, and there's no better way to get it started than by cashing some player props on Friday's slate.
There's loads of value on the board, but I've found three plays that should be on your card.
Let's break them down in our top MLB player props for Friday, May 3.
MLB Player Props (Friday, May 3)
- Jose Quintana Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115 at bet365)
- Riley Greene Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (+105 at DraftKings)
- George Kirby Over 17.5 Pitching Outs (-135 at bet365)
Jose Quintana is coming off his best start as a New York Met. He threw eight innings of one-run ball against the St. Louis Cardinals, and that outing may be the sign that he's beginning to turn a corner.
Quintana has been hit very hard this season. However, much of that is counteracted by him generating a ton of ground balls. It doesn't matter how hard it's hit if the balls are finding infielders.
There's one category where he's still due for positive regression, and that's in strikeouts. Quintana's strikeout rate is five percent lower than his career average. Well, tonight, we could see him find it as he faces a Tampa Bay Rays lineup that holds the sixth-highest team strikeout rate.
He has the matchup and historical positive regression on his side. Now we need him to execute.
Pick: Jose Quintana Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+115)
The Detroit Tigers are a team with plenty of offensive upside, and one of the main reasons is their young outfielder, Riley Greene. Greene has been tearing the cover off the ball this season, ranking in the top 10 percent of all qualified hitters in wOBA, xSLG and barrel rate.
At 23, Greene has shown the discipline and bat-to-ball skills of a veteran and has been in the middle of the Tigers' run production this season.
Tonight, he'll take his first few at-bats against the Yankees' Marcus Stroman.
Stroman is one of the game's best ground-ball pitchers, but his command has failed him at times this season. His walk rate is up two percent, and his WHIP is as high as it's been since 2018.
Greene has shown he'll take his walks, and that could be one way to get him on the board here if he doesn't do damage with a mistake. Green has exceeded this total in 58% of games and 55% since 2022.
At plus-money, Greene represents one of the best values tonight.
Pick: Riley Greene Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (+105)
Lastly, we go back to our friend George Kirby. Kirby has been locked in over his last three outings, allowing just two runs over 18 innings pitched. Those innings pitched put him at the average we need, which is six innings per start.
Kirby has been excellent at working deep into games in his young career because he may be the best control pitcher in baseball. He's been in the top five percent in walk rate through his first three seasons, and generating quick outs is the name of his game.
Overall, Kirby has thrown at least six innings in 61% of his 62 career starts. That gives us implied odds of -156 and a great edge with which to round out our card.
