The MLB player prop train has been chugging along this week, and on Friday, it has three stops as there are three strikeout props that offer significant value.
Let's break down our top MLB player props for Friday, May 17th.
MLB Player Props (Friday, May 17)
- Nestor Cortes under 6.5 strikeouts (-110) — DraftKings
- Tarik Skubal over 5.5 strikeouts -160/ over 6.5 (+130) — bet365
- James Paxton under 5.5 strikeouts -155 — bet365
On paper, the Yankees may not get a better matchup this year as they get to square off with the Chicago White Sox. While the White Sox have been dreadful offensively, they have done a decent job of putting the ball in play.
Chicago comes into this matchup ranked 17th in team strikeout rate and has shown they can put rallies together. So it's safe to say that Cortes' strikeout prop is over-inflated, and his own history proves it.
He has gone under this total in 67 of his last 52 starts. That gives us implied odds of -203 that he'll go under again tonight.
In addition to all that, our Action Labs projections love this under. With a projection of just 5.5 strikeouts, this is one of the best plays of the day.
Pick: Nestor Cortes Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-110)
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Next, we head to Arizona, where the Detroit Tigers will hand the ball to their ace, Tarik Skubal. Skubal has arguably been the best pitcher in baseball. Through eight starts, he holds a 2.02 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a strikeout rate in the 92nd percentile.
He has been matchup-proof thus far, and there's no reason to fade him against the defending National League Champions, the Arizona Diamondbacks. Arizona's lineup profiles very similarly to last season, as they are going to make things happen by putting the ball in play.
However, this year, there are many more guys who are strikeout candidates, and Skubal has shown that he can wipe out any hitter. Skubal has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in seven of his eight starts, which is part of his 59 percent hit rate in his last 44 starts.
Though with that priced heavily, we can take it one step further. Skubal has eclipsed 6.5 strikeouts in half of his starts this year.
With the strikeout upside there, laddering him is a great way to back Skubal tonight.
Pick: Tarik Skubal Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-160) / Over 6.5 (+130)
Lastly, we head to Los Angeles, where the starting pitching may be trending down. Tyler Glasnow had a rough outing last night, and James Paxton is not the stopper that the Dodgers need tonight.
Paxton has had all sorts of issues with command this season. He comes in, ranking in the sixth percentile in both strikeout rate and walk rate.
His inconsistent command has led to mistakes both in and out of the zone. He has been unable to put hitters away, and that trend should continue tonight.
The Cincinnati Reds may be fifth in team strikeout rate overall, but they have plenty of guys who hit lefties well, and they are just 13th in strikeout rate against lefties.
On top of the matchup, Paxton has yet to exceed this total this year and has gone under in 69 percent of his last 26 starts. So, the juice is worth the squeeze here.
Pick: James Paxton Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-155)
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