Major League Baseball is back! After a dreadful two days without baseball, the second half of the MLB season is set to commence. For us, that means we've got three starting pitchers who offer great value tonight.
So, without further ado, let's dive into our top MLB player props for Friday, July 19.
MLB Player Props: Friday, July 19
- Jack Flaherty Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-125, DraftKings)
- Sean Manaea Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+100, DraftKings)
- Luis Castillo Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-175, DraftKings)
The Detroit Tigers are set to come out of the All-Star break with a bang. They'll hand the ball to Jack Flaherty. We've backed Flaherty many times this season as he's experienced a career revival in Detroit.
A massive part of Flaherty's success has been his ability to generate strikeouts. Flaherty's strikeout rate is up nearly 10% from last year and ranks in the 94th percentile.
He has reasserted himself as one of the best strikeout artists in the game, and his total tonight is defeated as he'll be up against the Toronto Blue Jays. Yes, the Blue Jays are tough on paper as they rank 25th in strikeout rate against righties, but Flaherty has proven that this total is too low for him, regardless of competition.
He has struck out at least six batters in 13 of his 16 starts this season. That gives us an 81% hit rate, which equates to implied odds of -426. Back Flaherty out of the break.
Sean Manaea earned a contract with the New York Mets this past offseason after flourishing in starts in San Francisco. While he has not been at an elite level in Queens, he has shown he can still dominate inferior lineups, and he has another one in front of him tonight.
Manaea will take the ball against the Miami Marlins. The Marlins come into this matchup with the 12th-highest strikeout rate against lefties and the lowest wRC+ in the majors as well.
With Miami set to not pose much of a threat, we should see Manaea attack the zone and finish off the free-swinging fish. He has gone over this total in six of his last 10 starts, and just two of those over has come against lineups with worse strikeout rates than Miami's.
It's no secret that Luis Castillo has taken a step back this season, and the Mariners' ace's biggest area of regression has been in the strikeout department. His strikeout rate is down more than 3%, which has led to him working deeper counts and exiting games earlier.
Those are likely outcomes again tonight as he takes the mound against the Houston Astros. The Astros are not going to make Castillo's outing east tonight as they enter ranking eighth in wRC+ and first in OBP against righties over the last 30 days.
With Castillo not missing as many bats and his expected stats suggesting regression, we should not see him take the mound in the seventh. That has been the trend for him this season, as he's gone under this total in 15 of 20 starts.
That 75% hit rate equates to implied odds of -300, which makes the juice worth the squeeze on this under.
