We cooled off this weekend in the prop department, but Monday's slate gives us a fresh start. I've got three more starting pitchers in my sights, and lines are moving fast.
So, with that said, let's dive into my MLB player props for Monday, August 26.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props for Monday, Aug. 26
- Logan Allen Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-142, FanDuel)
- Bailey Ober Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+140, bet365)
- Bryce Miller Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-128, FanDuel)
MLB player prop bets and MLB prop bets are becoming increasingly popular among bettors. These wagers focus on individual player performances, such as runs, home runs, and strikeouts, adding excitement by allowing bettors to target specific player statistics rather than just game outcomes.
Royals vs Guardians Player Props: Tough Matchup for Logan Allen
Logan Allen will get the ball for the Cleveland Guardians in the second game of their doubleheader. Allen will be making his third start since June, as the young left-hander has had multiple stints in the minors.
Allen has been up and down this year because he's struggled mightily to get big-league hitters out this year. He enters this start with a 5.56 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 19 starts.
Allen's command has been shaky, and it's led to a bevy of mistakes over the plate while very few hitters have been fooled. His strikeout rate is down 3% from last season and ranks in the 24th percentile.
Those are not numbers you want to take into a matchup against the Kansas City Royals, who have the second-lowest strikeout rate against lefties this season and have hit them well lately, ranking 10th in wRC+ over the last 15 days.
Overall, Allen has not proven he have consistent success this year. He has gone under this total in 12 of his 19 starts this year, and all signs point to another under this evening.
Braves vs Twins Player Props: Bailey Ober's Promising Upside
We go from a starter who can't miss bats to one who profiles to miss a ton in his outing tonight. Bailey Ober will take the mound as he looks to continue his excellent season.
Ober has been excellent this season and has bolstered the Twins' rotation. A big part of Ober's game is racking up strikeouts, and he has a great matchup tonight to add to his total.
While he may not be the first to come to mind, Ober is a great strikeout artist. He averages over a strikeout per inning and has a swinging strike rate that ranks in the top 15% of all qualified starters.
Ober will face the Atlanta Braves, who have the lowest zone contact rate in baseball. However, they are not very disciplined either, as they rank 11th in chase rate and have the eight-lowest chase contact rate.
I mentioned that we've seen Ober strikeout upside this season, and that is what makes these odds playable. He has eclipsed this total in 46% of his starts this season, which is just +117 implied.
Rays vs Mariners Player Props: Bryce Miller Strikeout Line Too High
Our last starter will be on the bump for the Seattle Mariners. Bryce Miller is set to take on the Tampa Bay Rays, and while I faded the Rays by backing Gavin Stone yesterday, tonight will be a different story.
This under is not a knock on Bryce Miller, as he's been excellent this season. Miller enters with a 3.32 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP, but he is getting too much love in this matchup.
On paper, the matchup does not get much better. The Rays rank seventh in strikeout rate against righties and have the third-lowest zone contact rate in baseball.
The overriding factor is that Miller has not shown he can surpass this total. He has gone under this number in 88% of his 50 career starts, going under in 18 of 25 this year.
Our Action Labs projections agree as they have Miller slated for just 5.6 strikeouts tonight. So, take the under and prepare for a sweat.
