Yesterday was a good day, but it could have been great, as we needed just one more strikeout from Aaron Nola to sweep the board. Nonetheless, we are going to ride that momentum into Sunday's slate, where three more starting pitchers are jumping off the page.
So, without further ado, let's dive into my top three MLB player props for Sunday, August 11.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props & Sunday Picks
- Hunter Brown Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110, bet365)
- Hayden Birdsong Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (-155, bet365)
- Luis Severino Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-135, bet365)
Mets vs Mariners Player Props: Fade Severino on Sunday Night Baseball?
Lastly, we turn our attention to the New York Mets, who have been scoreless and likely sleepless in Seattle. However, the same cannot be said for the Mariners, who have caught fire lately, and Luis Severino will be tasked with putting out that fire.
Severino has been the bargain of the offseason for the Mets, but regression has hit him hard lately, as he has a 6.50 ERA over his last six starts. A decrease in strikeouts has come with his regression, as he struck out less than six batters in just four of his last 15 starts.
Overall, Severino has failed to surpass this mark 68% of the time this season, which is excellent news for the Mariners, who hold the highest team strikeout rate in baseball.
While it's often better to look at the bigger sample size, it's hard to ignore how Seattle is trending up and Severino is trending down. That makes Severino a fade candidate tonight.
Astros vs Red Sox Player Props: Back Brown to Blow Away Boston
Hunter Brown has finally begun to put it all together in 2024, and he's in line for more success this afternoon. Brown comes into his outing against the Boston Red Sox with a 3.98 ERA, but his xERA is all the way down at 3.52.
Brown is experiencing a lot of positive regression, which will lead to a lot of strikeouts, as we've seen him rack up lately. Brown has struck out at least six batters in nine of his last 15 starts, and 52% of his 23 starts this season.
He'll be up against a Red Sox lineup that is middle of the pack in strikeouts against righties, but they have five hitters with above-average strikeout rates against right-handed pitching.
With Brown trending up, Boston is getting a bit too much respect in the market here. Back Brown to blow away the Red Sox this afternoon.
Tigers vs Giants Player Props: Birdsong Destined to Improve
Hayden Birdsong may not be the songbird of our generation, but he is another starter due for a great deal of positive regression this Sunday. The 22-year-old right-hander enters this start with a 4.73 ERA and 1.39 WHIP.
While his counting stats may look rough through his seven big league starts, there is no doubting he has big league stuff, and it should help him work deeper into this outing.
Birdsong has generated swings and misses at an elite rate thus far, and he will face a Detroit lineup that has the ninth-highest team strikeout rate against right-handed pitching. Not to mention, the Tigers are also last in wRC+ against righties over the last 15 days and 25th this season.
All signs point to this being the outing in which Birdsong puts it all together and works into the sixth inning at the minimum.
