We were one strikeout away from sweeping the board yesterday. While that's a bit disappointing, we have plenty of momentum to carry into today's top MLB player props.
Let's dive in and meet the men who will keep our hot streak alive in our MLB player props for Saturday, May 11.
MLB Player Props for Saturday, May 11
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 3:07 p.m. | |
| 4:10 p.m. | |
| 6:10 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Twins vs. Blue Jays
Simeon Woods Richardson
Over 3.5 Strikeouts
The Minnesota Twins will hand the ball to Simeon Woods Richardson on Saturday. His last name may barely fit on the back of his jersey, but he's proven to fit nicely into the Twins rotation.
He has a 1.74 ERA through four starts this season. Woods Richardson has been overlooked in his young big-league career, and oddsmakers appear to be doing so again today.
His strikeout prop is set at just 3.5, which is a number he's cashed in three of his four starts this season and four of his six big league starts overall.
Tonight, it may have to do with the tough assignment, as the Blue Jays boast the sixth-best team strikeout rate in the majors.
However, Woods Richardson has big-league stuff and is averaging about a strikeout per inning. So, if he can deliver five solid innings, his chances of exceeding this total are much higher than the odds imply.
Pick: Simeon Woods Richardson Over 3.5 Strikeouts
Braves vs. Mets
Starling Marte
Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Next, we head to Queens, where the New York Mets have to contend with Max Fried of the Atlanta Braves. However, Fried is getting far too much credit in this matchup, as many of the Mets' hitters are discounted against the lethal lefty.
The matchup has created significant value on Starling Marte. Marte has looked revitalized at the dish. He's finally been playing at full health, and the proof is in the results thus far.
He's also due for positive regression, with his xBA sitting 24 points higher than his current batting average. We should see that come to fruition this afternoon, as Marte has seen the ball well from lefties this season.
Marte is hitting .346 against lefties this year, and while Fried has gotten the better of him in the past, he has yet to face this version.
Lastly, we're getting tremendous line value, as Marte has exceeded this number in 58% of games this year and 53% in the last three years overall.
Pick: Starling Marte Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI
Astros vs. Tigers
Cristian Javier
Over 4.5 Strikeouts
Our last stop is in Detroit, where Cristian Javier will be making his return from the injured list. Prior to being put on the shelf, Javier looked tremendous, posting a 1.54 ERA against four of the top lineups in the American League.
For his return outing, he'll have a much easier assignment with the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers may have a bunch of young talent, but they're hitting just .223 as a team and hold the seventh-highest team strikeout rate in the majors.
What we've seen from Javier is a change in repertoire usage. He's throwing his changeup 22% more than last season, which has given him a legit third pitch as opposed to being just a fastball-slider guy last year.
Opposing hitters have struggled against Javier, as he ranks in the 95th percentile in hard-hit rate and has an xBA against of just .209. He's due for many more whiffs, and we should see that translate into strikeouts today.
After all, he has gone over this total in 62% of his last 71 starts. This gives us implied odds of -156 that he will go over tonight.
Pick: Cristian Javier Over 4.5 Strikeouts
