Sunday was rough, as we took a reverse sweep. But Monday is here, and we'll get a fresh start with a fresh slate ahead. I'm targeting three starters who should be on your card.
So, with that said, let's dive into my MLB player props for Monday, August 5.
Doug Ziefel's MLB Player Props for Monday
- Logan Allen Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-125 · DraftKings)
- Patrick Corbin Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+110 · bet365)
- JP Sears Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-134 · FanDuel)
Diamondbacks vs. Guardians MLB Player Props
My Prop Bet #1: Why to Fade Logan Allen
We kick things off with Cleveland Guardians starter Logan Allen. Allen has had a rough 2024 campaign, entering this outing with a 5.67 ERA and 1.55 WHIP.
Unfortunately for him — but fortunately for us — he has shown no signs of turning it around. His xERA sits around 5.54, and there are far too many single-digit numbers on his Baseball Savant page.
Allen also has a tough matchup tonight against the Arizona Diamondbacks tonight.
The D-backs have turned it around lately, and they're made to mash against lefties. Arizona ranks third in OBP and seventh in wRC+ against left-handed pitching while also holding the eighth-lowest strikeout rate.
Allen has recorded an out in the sixth inning in half of his starts this season, but with things trending downward, it's hard to see him getting a chance to face the Diamondbacks a third time.
Pick: Logan Allen Under 15.5 Outs Recorded (-125)
Giants vs. Nationals MLB Player Props
My Prop Bet #2: Time to Back Patrick Corbin?
Patrick Corbin has been a guy to pick on for the last few years now, and his decline has been profitable. However, we've reached the part of the season where the Nationals are going to allow him to eat up innings almost regardless of results.
Corbin comes into this start with a 5.88 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, the second-worst of his career. However, Corbin has utilized his decline in stuff to generate more groundballs.
Corbin's groundball rate ranks in the 76th percentile and is up 3% from last season. Keeping the ball on the ground will be the key to success against a Giants lineup that rakes against lefties.
Looking at the bigger picture, this price is not indicative of the Nationals' management style with Corbin. He has exceeded this total in 68% of his starts this season, which puts the implied odds sternly in our favor.
Pick: Patrick Corbin Over 15.5 Outs Recorded (+110)
White Sox vs. Athletics MLB Player Props
My Prop Bet #3: A JP Sears Strikeout Prop
Our last starter takes the mound in Oakland, where two of the worst teams in baseball will do battle. However, the A's have the edge on the mound with JP Sears, who has shown to have more upside than his counting stats portray.
Sears is a soft-tossing command pitcher, but he's shown that he can rack up strikeouts. He's recorded at least five punchouts in 10 of his 22 starts and at least six strikeouts in eight of his 10 overs.
Many of his overs have come against teams with high strikeout rates, and that's what he has in front of him tonight. The White Sox are arguably the worst offensive team in baseball and got significantly worse at the trade deadline.
They come into this matchup with the sixth-highest strikeout rate against lefties on the season. Over their last 15 games, they own the second-highest strikeout rate.
All signs point to this being a game where Sears will thrive, so take his over tonight — and don't be afraid to ladder him up.
Pick: JP Sears Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-134)
