MLB Player Prop Picks for Thursday
Tonight, I'll be fading a pair of young hitters in Xavier Edwards and Jackson Holliday. Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks may be avoiding Kyle Schwarber at all costs. That leads me into my MLB player props picks for Thursday, August 8.
Alex Hinton's MLB Player Prop Picks Tonight
In the table below, you'll find each of our MLB staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
|---|---|
| 6:10 p.m. | |
| 7:07 p.m. | |
| 6:40 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Reds vs. Marlins
Xavier Edwards
1 Strikeout (Parlayed with Holliday)
By Alex Hinton
On Tuesday, we backed Edwards' HRR line and he cashed it with two hits as he pushed his hitting streak to 10 games. That streak ended last night, but that's not why I'm temporarily off the bandwagon. Even while hitting over .400 over the past month, Edwards struck out a lot. He has struck out in 10 of his past 15 games, including in six straight.
Tonight, Edwards will face Reds' starter Hunter Greene for the first time. Greene has 149 strikeouts in 130 1/3 innings and a 28.1% strikeout rate this season. Greene has been dominant lately, allowing just one earned run and striking out 40 in his past 33 innings. He has punched out at least seven in five of his past six starts, including 11 against the Giants last Saturday. Batting leadoff, Edwards figures to face Greene three times in the first five or six innings.
Pick: Xavier Edwards 1 Strikeout (Parlayed with Holliday)
Orioles vs. Blue Jays
Jackson Holliday
1 Strikeout (Parlayed with Edwards)
By Alex Hinton
Jackson Holliday also has been hot since being recalled from the minors. He's hitting .375 with four home runs and 10 RBI, including a two-run shot to give Baltimore the lead last night. Before his homer, Holliday struck out in his first at-bat. He has struck out in all 17 games of his career and has 25 strikeouts in 58 at-bats.
Holliday has been much better lately, but has still shown a willingness to take a lot of pitches, which sometimes put him in less than advantageous counts. If Holiday falls behind tonight against Kevin Gausman, he will likely strike out at least once. Even in a down year by his recent standards, Gausman has 119 strikeouts in 124 1/3 innings.
By combining Edwards and Holliday, we get plus odds for a combo with a 100% hit rate over the past six games.
Pick: Jackson Holliday 1 Strikeout (Parlayed with Edwards)
Phillies vs. Diamondbacks
Kyle Schwarber
Over 0.5 Walks
By Alex Hinton
Schwarber draws a lot of walks and is third in the MLB with 82 behind Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. Schwarber's .390 on-base percentage is a key reason in why the Phillies have gone with him as a non-traditional leadoff hitter over the past few years. He has also drawn a walk in seven of his past 10 games, including one last night.
Additionally, Schwarber wrecked the Dodgers' night by homering three times Wednesday. He now has five home runs in his past four games and is hitting .426 with eight home runs and 18 RBI over the past 15 days.
Now, the Phillies head to Arizona to take on the Diamondbacks. Jordan Montgomery will get the start for the D'backs and has had success against Schwarber, striking him out four times in six at-bats. However, we have seen a very different version of Montgomery this season.
Montgomery has pitched to a 6.37 ERA, a 1.66 WHIP and issued 29 walks in 77 2/3 innings. His strikeout rate (14.6%) is a career-low and his walk rate (8.3%) is his highest since the 2018 season. That walk rate also ticks up a bit to 8.9% against left-handed hitters.
If Montgomery doesn't walk Schwarber, an Arizona reliever may do so to set up a right-on-right matchup against Trea Turner. Given how hot Schwarber is right now, walking him is not a bad idea.
Pick: Kyle Schwarber Over 0.5 Walks
