Tuesday's MLB slate is the first this season in which every team is in action and all the games take place under the lights.
That means there's going to be tons of action starting around 6 p.m. ET, and our analysts are predictably all over it. We have bets on Athletics vs. Orioles, Red Sox vs. Rays, Marlins vs. Phillies, Tigers vs. Blue Jays and Cardinals vs. Rockies.
Here are our best bets from the MLB slate on Tuesday, April 11th.
Tuesday MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Athletics vs. Orioles
Tuesday, April 11 6:35 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
First Five Under 4.5 (-125)  |
By Kenny Ducey
Look. Everyone is going to want to talk about Grayson Rodriguez here considering he’s one of the top prospects. Honestly? I don’t really care about him. I’m tuning in to watch Kyle Muller.
Muller, who’s been a mainstay in the Top 100 going on several years now, is finally getting a fair shot in the big leagues at the age of 25 and making the most of it. He’s managed to bring his walk rate down a bit and has pitched like the dominant Triple-A arm he was last season in the Braves system, throwing 10 2/3 innings of three-run ball to this point.
While simpletons may see his 4.22 xERA and immediately sour on him, I’d direct you further down Muller’s Baseball Savant page where you can find that 59.4% of all balls that have come back in play against the lefty have been grounders. With that and a low 3.1% barrel rate, I don’t see too much cause for concern here. I’ve also watched him pitch with my own two eyes and have been thoroughly impressed.
I’d like to be bold and take a chance on the A’s as huge dogs, but it’s a tough ask on the road especially with the third-worst offense in baseball judging by wRC+. Rodriguez is on the other side as well, and I suppose he’s plenty capable of shutting down this offense with a solid first start in the big leagues to give him the confidence necessary.
Simply put, this number is way too high. Baltimore has been great at the dish to this point, but it is hitting just .258 against lefties – something that’s no coincidence when you consider the amount of solid left-handed bats it has.
Pick: First Five Under 4.5 (-125)
Athletics vs. Orioles
Tuesday, April 11 6:35 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Under 8.5 (-110)  |
By D.J. James
Grayson Rodriguez and Kyle Muller face off on Tuesday in a battle of prospects for the Baltimore Orioles and Oakland Athletics. Rodriguez threw five innings, striking out five and walking only one hitter in his MLB debut. Muller has looked particularly impressive in two outings, allowing three earned runs over 10 2/3 innings so far this season.
Rodriguez does have the Statcast edge in one start with an Average Exit Velocity ranking in the 86th percentile, while Muller’s ranks in the 38th percentile. That said, both have shown off their talent and should pitch deeper into this game.
Baltimore touts a 151 wRC+ with an 11.2% walk rate off of southpaws (like Muller). Muller’s four-pitch mix should keep the O's a bit off-balance, though. The Oakland bullpen has its issues, but as long as Muller can throw strikes, he can negate the relief impact on this game.
On the other side of the diamond, Rodriguez should feast. Oakland has the worst wRC+ off of righties in MLB so far this season, and that aligns pretty well with its full-season projections.
Overall, this should look more like a pitcher’s duel with Rodriguez and Muller showing off their young arms to the delight of the fans watching.
Take the under to 8 and -120.
Pick: Under 8.5 (-110)
Red Sox vs. Rays
Tuesday, April 11 6:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Red Sox +160  |
Oh well, here we go again.
We’ve arrived at the point in the Rays’ nine-game winning streak where they’ve become severely overvalued. Yes, they’ve been dominant, but they won nine straight against the Tigers, Nationals and Athletics before squeaking out a one-run home win over the Red Sox on an eighth-inning homer.
The Rays are due to drop one. The regression monster comes from every team eventually.
From a pure value perspective, the Rays should not be -180 ML favorites over the Red Sox on Tuesday. Sean Zerillo projects them at just -140.
From an actual baseball perspective, I don’t hate the matchup.
Garrett Whitlock is a young pitcher with loads of potential – in other words, he’s worth buying on Tuesday. He’s a sinkerballer with good extension and solid control, and he fixed his issues with left-handed batters (.350 wOBA allowed in 2021, .241 wOBA allowed in 2022).
Whitlock also posted two dominant minor-league starts on his way back from injury this year, allowing two runs over 10 innings with a 14:2 K/BB ratio against the Mets’ Double-A and Triple-A lineups.
Whitlock’s in good form, and he loves pitching against the Rays. He threw four innings of shutout ball in his only start against Tampa last year, striking out seven and walking none.
IT’S GARRETT WHITLOCK BUMP DAY!pic.twitter.com/NCFcy4I9Vc
— Tyler Milliken ⚾️ (@tylermilliken_) April 11, 2023
Meanwhile, Shane McClanahan’s numbers look good, but he allowed the Tigers and Royals to combine for a 37% hard-hit rate and 89.2 mph avg. EV, which would place him around league average in both categories. The hard-hitting Red Sox will not be as forgiving, even without Adam Duvall.
The Rays have the advantage in the bullpen and on defense, but it’s not enough to compensate for the lopsided, overvalued price.
Meanwhile, the Red Sox have activated four of our five PRO signals, including this profitable betting system.
I’ll take the Sox at +155 or better. And if the Rays win their 11th straight, I’ll probably bet the Sox again at a bigger number.
Pick: Red Sox +160
Marlins vs. Phillies
Tuesday, April 11 6:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Over 7.5 (-120)  |
The market is too low on the run environment for Tuesday's matchup between the Marlins and Phillies. I am a fan relative to the market on both starters for this game, but both offenses are in their preferred offensive split. The Phillies project better against left-handed pitching and the Marlins are a league average offense against righties. Miami might be really bad against southpaws again, but Luis Arraez and a healthy Jazz Chisholm Jr. helps this offense considerably against righties.
Citizens Bank Park is the second most wind affected stadium in the entire league and there's a forecasted 10-15 mph wind blowing straight out to right center. Combine that with 70+ degree temperatures and the total should be at least eight runs.
The Phillies' bullpen has a lot of great stuff in it, but there remain walk issues within the group. I'd bet over 7.5 at -120 or better or over 8 at even money.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-120)
Tigers vs. Blue Jays
Tuesday, April 11 7:07 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Blue Jays -1.5 (-125) |
By Nick Shlain
The short version of this bet is that the Toronto Blue Jays are good and the Detroit Tigers are not good.
The Blue Jays enter play Tuesday at 6-4 while the Tigers are 2-7. Each of Detroit’s wins came in Houston, but the Tigers were overmatched in their opening series at Tampa Bay as they were swept and looked lifeless.
Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah’s velocity was down in spring training and he was hit around by the St. Louis Cardinals in his first start, but he was quite good against the Kansas City Royals in his second start. Manoah allowed just one hit against Kansas City in seven scoreless innings. The Tigers lineup is similar to the Royals in quality, only the Tigers strike out more.
One of my favorite bets on the slate Tuesday is the Blue Jays on the run line -1.5 at -125. Detroit starter Matt Manning was solid in his first start of the year. He’s the only Tigers starter to record a win after nine games. Manning had a 3.43 ERA last year, but his xFIP was considerably higher at 4.37.
Against a potent Blue Jays lineup playing in their first home game of the season, I can see Manning having some trouble here as his road ERA was 4.94 last year.
With a clear starting pitching advantage, better lineup and better bullpen I see no reason not to expect a big win for Toronto in the home opener.
Pick: Blue Jays -1.5 (-125)
Cardinals vs. Rockies
Tuesday, April 11 8:40 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Cardinals -1.5 (-115) |
By Jim Turvey
Last season, one of the most profitable plays was to just blindly bet the St. Louis Cardinals when they were facing a left-handed starting pitcher. This season, the team is once again hitting lefties hard (slightly down from last season's 131 wRC+ to a still very dominant 121 wRC+), but I have noticed an interesting trend.
Perhaps because the books got smacked around so much when the Cardinals faced lefties, the opening lines have been massive and we've actually seen steam against the Cardinals the last few times they have faced a left-handed starting pitcher.
I'm more than OK to wait out that steam and pick the Cardinals once again vs a lefty, though, and we're going back to that well Tuesday.
Kyle Freeland is one of the worst starting pitchers in baseball, to boot, and the game will be in Coors, so there should be runs aplenty for both sides.
The only worry here is Miles Mikolas starting for the Cardinals, but by playing the full game run line, the edge the Cardinals have in the pen will be brought into play as well.
This has all the making of an 8-5 Cardinals win, with a couple of sweaty spots but an overall big hitting day for the Cardinals against another lefty starter. I'd play the -1.5 run line to -125.
Pick: Cardinals -1.5 (-115)
