The Saturday MLB slate is full of intriguing action on the diamond and although there are games late into the night, we've got our eyes on a few of the earlier games. Specifically, the Royals against the Giants and the Reds against the Phillies.
Our experts took a look at the Saturday afternoon matchups and have identified a pair of underdogs as their best bets.
So, without wasting anymore time, let's dig into these plus-money picks.
Saturday Afternoon MLB Best Bets
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click the team logos for one the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
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| Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Royals vs. Giants
Saturday, April 8 4:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Royals Moneyline (+120)  |
Brady Singer made big strides last season and improved to a 3.97 xERA pitcher, which was about half a run lower than he posted in 2021. He made great improvements with his control as his BB/9 rate went from 3.72 in 2021 to 2.05 in 2022 and his Location+ improved from 100 to 102.
Singer is heavily reliant on his sinker, a pitch he threw 53.8% of the time last season. His improved control can be correlated to improvements made with his sinker. He lowered his xwOBA on that sinker from .350 to .309. The Giants were very average against right-handed sinkers last year with a -0.8 run value and a .329 xwOBA, per Baseball Savant.
Sean Manaea drastically underperformed last season as his ERA was 4.96 and his xERA was 4.05. However, even the expected metrics suggest he was a very average MLB pitcher. Much like Singer, Manaea is heavily reliant on a sinker, going to it over 60% of the time last season. His sinker was really average last season and allowed a .320 xwOBA. It also had a Stuff+ rating of 91.
The Royals actually had a lot of success against left-handed pitching last season and ranked 14th in wOBA and wRC+.
I have the Royals projected as a -107 road favorite, so I like the value on them at +120.
Pick: Royals Moneyline |
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Reds vs. Phillies
Saturday, April 8 4:05 p.m. ET MLB.TV |
Reds Moneyline (+130)  |
Bailey Falter had a decent first start of the season last week against the Rangers, but it's difficult to put much faith in him as a regular starter — particularly as a favorite.
The Reds' offense is far from the most fearsome in the majors, but they were considerably more competent against left-handed pitching a year ago. And in an incredibly small sample size so far this year, the Reds have again proven more dangerous against lefties than righties.
In Falter's season debut, he allowed just one run over 5 1/3 innings in a loss to Texas, but he also allowed seven hits and plenty of loud contact. I expect Cincinnati to have a moderate amount of success against him this afternoon. He pitches in the zone more frequently than the average pitcher, but doesn't miss nearly enough bats, meaning he needs some luck and/or good defense to find success.
Nick Lodolo, on the other hand, misses plenty of bats. He struck out nine over five innings in his first start against Pittsburgh, but more importantly, generated 21 swinging strikes in 109 pitches. That would've tied for his second-highest total a season ago.
I expect big things from Lodolo this year, and facing a depleted Phillies lineup is a good spot to back an underrated starter as an underdog.
I'll take the Reds on the moneyline at +125 or better, and the Reds F5 moneyline at +105 or better.
Pick: Reds Moneyline |
