Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Saturday, July 25.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Michael Wacha Over 5.5 Strikeouts (1u | Bet to +100)
- Angels/Giants F5 Over 4.5 (-130, 0.65u | Bet to -140)
- Blue Jays/Red Sox Under 7.5 (-105, 0.53u | Bet through 7.5)
- Reds/Cardinals F5 Under 4.5 (-120, 0.6u | Bet through 4.5)
Royals vs Tigers Picks
Let's start with the fact that Michael Wacha hasn’t thrown fewer than 96 pitches in five straight starts and hasn’t faced fewer than 23 batters since his first start of the season. He’s averaging more than 25. Also, Wacha’s changeup (55 wRC+, 13.6 SwStr%), used 24% of the time against LHBs, allows him to author a higher strikeout rate against batters from that side of the plate (21.6%).
The Tigers faced Wacha one time this season and played their standard RHP lineup, though with Jake Rogers catching and Dillon Dingler at DH. This is the same lineup I’m projecting for the early start after a night game on Saturday, with five LHBs.
Projecting Wacha to face 25-26 batters, he’ll likely see around 15 LHBs, and going through the Detroit order nearly three full times might allow him to face guys like Carpenter (29.1 K% vs RHP), Torkelson (34.1%), Outman (45.4%) and Rogers (29.1%) three times.
The projected Detroit lineup averages a 26 K% against RHP this year.
I’ve even adjusted for the fact that Wacha’s 8.3 SwStr% over the last month has resulted in a 23.8 K% that’s a bit too high, but still project him for a 24 K% in this particular matchup.
Lastly, Wacha is between an 8-9% boost from the park/weather/umpire combination.
Lineups and weather forecasts can change, and Wacha could face fewer batters than I’m projecting (projecting 24 would make this a borderline play), but he is healthily above my threshold here, and I really like the price we are getting.
Picks: Michael Wacha Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+125, 1u | Bet to +100)
Angels vs Giants Picks
Oracle Park suppresses runs by 6% on average, and the weather forecast doesn’t seem likely to change that more than 1-2% either way, but Nic Lentz is one of the more hitter-friendly umpires, generally increasing scoring by 2.7%.
We’re still looking at a negative run environment. But Oracle Park only suppresses run scoring by 2% in afternoon games, so we could be looking at a neutral park.
The Angels will be starting Ryan Johnson, whose 6.10 ERA is below his 6.26 FIP. Additional estimators are lower, but none by a run and a half. He’s truly tracking like a five-run-per-nine pitcher.
That’s a necessary component here because he should be able to push a slacking San Francisco offense above average here. The projected Giants’ lineup is averaging just a 90 wRC+ over the last 30 days, but a 104 wRC+ at home and 109 wRC+ vs RHP.
With the Angels, you also get one of the worst defenses in the league. On a team level, they are the third-worst defense (Runs Prevented and OAA). Saturday’s projected defense sits at -25 FRV through Thursday’s games.
The stunner is that the Angels have the best bullpen estimators in the league over the last 30 days, but we’re going to be mostly avoiding them.
Over on the other side, Robbie Ray has been nearly as bad as Johnson from an underlying perspective, despite the 3.33 ERA. He doesn’t have a single estimator within a run and a quarter.
It’s a little bit about a regression-worthy BABIP (.250), but more about eight of his 49 runs allowed being unearned. He’s giving up the runs, but not being charged for them.
The Angels’ projected lineup, full of RHBs, average just a 64 wRC+ over the last 30 days, but 109 on the road and 113 vs LHP.
The San Francisco defense is more average, but I believe the overall conditions are being met for a hot start to this game, mostly due to a pair of pitchers who are both pitching poorly this season. Their ERAs may add up to nine and a half, but the peripherals suggest 10. Just ask BARTOLO.
Picks: F5 Over 4.5 (-130, 0.65u | Bet to -140)
Blue Jays vs Red Sox Picks
I believe the environment requires the most analysis in this one.
Fenway Park increases run scoring by 4% no matter when you’ve utilized.
Weather doesn’t appear likely to have an impact, while scheduled umpire Paul Clemons (-1.4%) might have a negative one.
We’re not too far above neutral now.
Both pitchers, Dylan Cease and Sonny Gray, are having fabulous debut seasons with their new American League East teams.
Cease’s 2.67 ERA is only about one-third of a run below his true performance (36.3 K%, 5.4% Barrels/BBE).
Gray’s performance has been a bit more than a run worse than his 2.48 ERA. The 86.6 LOB% is nearly 10 points above his previous career high, but he's still pretty good with a 15.7 K-BB% and 36.6 HardHit%.
The Red Sox have been on fire. The projected lineup has averaged a 115 wRC+ over the last month, but just 86 at home and 97 against RHP this year.
The Toronto projected lineup has been cringeworthy. They have the same average wRC+ against RHP as the Red Sox, but just an 86 wRC+ on the road and 66 wRC+ over the last 30 days (through Thursday). Nathan Lukes (102), Ernie Clement (102), and George Springer (92) lead this lineup over the last month.
Add in 31 combined FRV (Fielding Run Value) from the projected defenses and a pair of bullpens with top third of the league BARTOLO rankings this season and top third of the league estimators over the last 30 days, and the conditions are ripe for a pitching duel.
Picks: Under 7.5 (-105, 0.53u | Bet through 7.5)
Reds vs Cardinals Picks
Is Hunter Greene back?
How does a 30.8 K-BB% through three starts feel? And four of his five walks came in his first start.
He has allowed three home runs, but they were also the only three barrels he’s allowed. And even though home runs have been a problem in his past (though not as much the last few years), he transitions from the biggest power-boosting park in the league in Cincinnati to the most suppressive one in St Louis on Saturday.
As for the St Louis offense, they’ve been scuffling. The projected lineup has just a 72 wRC+ over the last 30 days, and Jordan Walker (146) is the only projected Cardinal to reach 100. The same lineup has just a 90 wRC+ at home and 98 wRC+ vs RHP.
This is a nice spot for Greene to continue his dominance and make up for lost time.
The projected Cincinnati defense has accumulated -16 FRV, but that doesn’t matter as much when this guy’s on the mound.
As for Andre Pallante, he doesn’t miss bats (16.9 K%), but he keeps the ball on the ground (55%), doesn’t walk many (7%), and doesn’t allow a lot of hard contact.
His 4.02 ERA is within one-third of a run of all his estimators except for a 3.47 dERA.
He has allowed 14 runs over his last 22.2 innings, but that’s with a .346 BABIP and 62.5 LOB%.
That doesn’t seem likely to continue with one of the best defenses in the league (projected 21 FRV) behind him.
Pallante has also allowed two runs or less in seven of his last 11 starts.
You’d always prefer strikeouts, but its about as comfortable as you can get with a “pitch to contact” approach, especially against a Cincinnati offense with an 85 wRC+ against RHP.
I don’t want any part of these two struggling offenses, but in a park that suppresses runs by 6% with the projected umpiring and weather forecast evening each other out, I think we see a lower scoring game through the first five.
Picks: F5 Under 4.5 (-120, 0.6u | Bet through 4.5)
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Saturday, July 25
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Michael Wacha Over 5.5 Strikeouts (1u | Bet to +100)
- Angels/Giants F5 Over 4.5 (-130, 0.65u | Bet to -140)
- Blue Jays/Red Sox Under 7.5 (-105, 0.53u | Bet through 7.5)
- Reds/Cardinals F5 Under 4.5 (-120, 0.6u | Bet through 4.5)
