Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Jon Anderson has that job for Monday, July 6.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Total Bases (-150)
- Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 Hits (+175)
- Phillies/Royals Under 8 (-105)
- SGP: Jax 5+ Strikeouts, Jax Over 14.5 Outs (-110)
- Astros/Nationals Over 10 (-110)
- SGP: James Wood and Yordan Alvarez HR (+900)
- Juan Soto 2+ H+R+RBI (+115)
- Mets Moneyline (+110)
- Shane Drohan 5+ Strikeouts (+133)
- Padres moneyline (-114)
- Blue Jays/Giants Under 7.5 (-105)
- Kyle Karros 1+ Hit (-180)
- Rockies Over 4.5 Runs (+105)
Phillies vs Royals Picks
Two lefties going at it. Cristopher Sanchez takes the show on the road as he wraps up his All-Star first half. He has a 2.00 ERA on the year now, although most of that damage has come away from Philly.
On the road, he has a 3.89 ERA with a 1.34 WHIP, his K% drops three points and he gives up homers (1.2 HR/9 on the road, 0.25 at home). But he's still throwing a bunch of strikes no matter where he is. I think that split is mostly random; there's no good reason to believe that Sanchez is a significantly different guy in Philly.
He certainly has the pitcher advantage for this one. Noah Cameron takes the ball for the struggling Royals pitching staff. He sports a 4.95 ERA on the year now after having given up 18 earned runs in his last four starts (6.75 ERA). Both sides of the plate have hit him well this year.
- RHB: 21% K%, 7% BB%, .331 xwOBA
- LHB: 18% K%, 5% BB%, .363 xwOBA
Cameron lets a lot of balls get into play with that low K% and low BB%, and it's quite often pretty loud contact. He does a decent job with the home run, usually — he's at 1.08 HR/9 this year after going for 1.2 last year, which is fine. His bad starts usually come because he gives up 6+ hits and strings them together.
The Phillies are a heavy left-handed team. They have a team .725 OPS against right-handed pitching and just .670 against lefties. Kyle Schwarber (28%) and Brandon Marsh (35%) strike out a lot in these spots.
I like the Phillies in this one, but at -219 on the moneyline, can we really bet on that side? The total is at 8 (-114 for the over). My sim model (that uses MLB Data Warehouse projections) has the Phillies winning this one 70% of the time, but the total is averaging out at 7.5 runs. The Phillies are winning this game 4.9 to 2.7 in the sims. Neither offense is in a great spot. You don't feel good about betting on Noah Cameron to keep this one close, but he does have the advantage of not having to face too many tough righties in this lineup.
One guy who has overperformed a bit this year is Brandon Marsh. He's always a high BABIP guy, but his mark of .382 is about 20 points higher than his career average. Against lefties this year, he has a .377 BABIP — which really doesn't make a lot of sense. And given that huge strikeout problem against lefties, I like the Marsh fade tonight.
Picks: Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Total Bases (-150), Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 Hits (+175), Under 8 (-105)
Yankees vs Rays Picks
Two good righties in Tampa Bay: It's Cam Schlittler against Griffin Jax, and Tropicana Field used to offer a big advantage to the pitchers.
Back in 2024, there were just 7.8 runs per game scored there with a higher K% than average because of the lighting and the low elevation that helped pitch shapes, but things don't seem to be quite the same this year. The 47% HR/Brl and 8.9 runs scored per game are average numbers; it seems that it's pretty much a neutral park.
But it hasn't been totally neutral for Griffin Jax. He has a 30.6% K% at home vs. 17.9% on the road. His SwStr% split shows the same kind of thing (17.5% at home, 12% on the road). The problem is that he's given up a bunch of homers in Tampa (seven on a 24% HR/FB).
It's also been tough for Jax to get deep into games. He finally reached six innings last time, needing only 71 pitches to get those 18 outs. That's extraordinary efficiency, and STILL they brought in a reliever for the 7th. This workload stuff has the books not knowing what to do with his OUTS lines. But there's a really interesting one on DraftKings. He's over 14.5 for (-197). That's a ton of juice, but it looks pretty much free to me (famous last words, maybe). Jax has gone 5, 5, 5, 5, and 6 in his last five outings. Maybe this line is down because of the matchup with the Yankees, but that shouldn't be the case, as the Yankees are hitting .220/.289/.381 since Aaron Judge hit the IL. They've been awful.
So I like a two-leg Jax parlay on DraftKings here.
Picks: Parlay: Jax 5+ Strikeouts, Jax Over 14.5 Outs -110
Astros vs Nationals Picks
Yeah, it's Yordan Alvarez vs. Miles Mikolas. The best hitter in the game this year against, arguably, the worst right-handed pitcher. But what are you going to do? Bet on Yordan Alvarez at +190 or whatever ridiculous line this will be set at?
The simpler path is just to take the total. I don't think the books can comfortably price this one right. There have been 11.4 runs scored per game in DC this year. And now we get Mikolas hosting another horribly righty Mike Burrows. These are two of the worst pitching staffs in the league, doing battle with two quite capable offenses.
I expected this total at 11.5 or something; instead, we get a 10. So I'm taking that as soon as I can! Look for the best lines, be smart, but this game is primed for a dozen dudes crossing home plate.
Pick: Over 10 (-110)
If you must bet homers and you're not super price-conscious, you can take the obvious parlay here. James Wood (+247) and Yordan Alvarez (+231) are #1 and #3 in my home run projections tonight (Hunter Goodman is #2). They're both in elite spots against fly-ball righties and bad bullpens behind them. The parlay there gives you a 10:1 return on your money on DraftKings. And you can find slightly better prices elsewhere if you're not a DK bettor.
Pick: James Wood and Yordan Alvarez HR Parlay (+900)
Mets vs Braves Picks
The wrap-around series here. The Braves and Mets square off for a fourth time after a three-game weekend set. And the runs have been flying in this series so far.
It's Freddy Peralta against Reynaldo Lopez. Peralta's struggles are well-known this year. He has a 4.63 ERA with a 1.41 WHIP on the year; he's been a big part of the Mets' disappointing 2026 season. His fastball just isn't the same as it has been in his career — just a 9.7% SwStr% and 96 Stuff+ on the pitch this year. It's legitimately worse in shape, and the results show that.
However, I think Peralta can correct back toward his career norms, at least to some extent. He's given up a high 18% HR/FB this year, and he's allowed a .305 BABIP, which is a bit above his career average. Also, I think he can handle his business well enough to help the Mets to some victories, and especially so tonight.
I am not a believer in Reynaldo Lopez since his breakout 2024 season (1.99 ERA in 136 innings). He has a 3.49 ERA with a 19% K% and a 9.8% BB% in limited action these last two seasons. His SwStr% is awful this year at 9.7%, and he's giving up a lot of batted balls hit into the air (36% GB%). Lefties have really crushed him with a .363 xwOBA. He just doesn't have a good secondary pitch to have success without the platoon advantage.
I like the Mets power lefties here. Juan Sotoshould see the ball very well here and probably get on base a couple of times. Lopez walks lefties at a high rate, and you know Soto likes himself a free pass.
But more generally, I like the Mets to get a win here behind Freddy Peralta.
Picks: Juan Soto 2+ H+R+RBI (+115), Mets Moneyline (+110)
Brewers vs Cardinals Picks
I've been watching lefty Shane Drohan closely, the Brewers have a way of developing pitchers out of nowhere, and it might be happening again with this lefty.
Drohan is coming off a 17-whiff night against the Reds. His fastball has been sick this year, with a 16.4% SwStr% and .229 xwOBA allowed. That's a rare combination for a heater, and then he complements it with a 20.2% SwStr% slider that comes with a .218 xwOBA allowed. The guy has something really cooking for him. I'm not sure if it's pitch shape as much as it's deception and command, but it's working.
So Drohan sits here with a 24.5% K% on the year, but that seems like a number that should tick upward given his swinging strike rate. The kicker is that he's walked seven in his last three — but his ball rate (the percentage of pitches thrown that go for balls) isn't bad at all at 36% over the last three.
Pitch counts? A little bit of a worry. Just 78 last time, but that was after getting into a jam and needing help out of an inning. The start before that, he threw 98 pitches and had 91 the prior start. So he's stretched out and able to push toward 100 pitches.
Picks: Shane Drohan 5+ Strikeouts (+133)
Diamondbacks vs Padres Picks
Brandon Pfaadt has returned to the Diamondbacks rotation, so we can start betting on those left-handed hitters again!
This guy has been one of the worst in the league at getting lefties out since he got into the league. He tried to add a new sinker a couple of years ago to help, but it didn't help — he's given up seven homers to lefties in the 105 cases where he's faced one. That's a home run every 15 lefties faced, and it's a crazy high .400 wOBA allowed to them.
As I said, this problem isn't new, so we're not too concerned about the small sample this year. He just doesn't have a way to get big league lefties out.
The Padres don't have a ton of great lefty sticks, but I like Jackson Merrill and Gavin Sheets in this spot. Sheets is at +472 for a homer, while Merrill at +507! There's a lottery ticket here. You get +3100 from that parlay. That will win you $160 on a $5 bet.
Walker Buehler has been pitching pretty well of late, although that statement does require you to ignore the nine earned runs he just gave up to the Cubs in that crazy Wrigley wind game last week. Prior to that, he had given up just five earned runs in five starts. Now he's back in San Diego, a pitcher's paradise — he has a 3.13 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP at home this year.
So the path to betting is clear. Back Buehler and bet on the Padres lefties.
Picks: Padres Moneyline (-114), Merrill and Sheets Markets
Blue Jays vs Giants Picks
The Blue Jays are in the midst of a west coast road trip, and they head to San Francisco to open a series. They'll send Kevin Gausman, who has been blown up lately, to face Landen Roupp.
AT&T Park is allowing the fourth-lowest home run rate in the league this year, with just 1.7 homers per game being hit there, and you have two guys that can keep the ball on the ground very well here.
Roupp has given up two homers at home all year, and Gausman hasn't been so good at that, with 15 homers given up this year, but we know what that guy is capable of when the splitter is working — it hasn't been working in the last two, but this is normal territory for Gausman.
He's inconsistent and can be really hittable at times, but he always bounces back and puts together very strong weeks and months when he's in a groove. We can take advantage of his recent worst performance by buying low on him in this great spot against the Giants, who have just a .697 OPS at home this year.
There could be some walks and probably some base running in this one, but I don't see a bunch of runs being scored here. Both of these guys match up well with their opponent, and the total being set at 7.5 tells you a lot. I don't think more than one homer is being hit here, so if you can find an under 1.5 game home runs line around even money, I'd be into that, but I'll keep it simple and just take the game under.
Picks: Under 7.5 (-105)
Rockies vs Dodgers Picks
The Rockies really struggle coming off a home stand. They've been way better in every aspect of the offensive game this season. They're one of the better teams in the league in overall OPS this year, and they've been just fine on the road — but the numbers are down in their first game off a home stand.
After going for a 6.69 ERA with Toronto and getting cut, Eric Lauer — who has found a home in LA — has a 2.88 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP in 34.1 innings for the Dodgers. The rich get richer!
The confusing part is that Lauer has just a 13% K% with the Dodgers, which is awful. His K-BB% is 6.6%, but a .204 BABIP and a near league-high strand rate in this time with LA has him getting the job done. I'm not sure how the Dodgers do it, but Lauer and Wrobleski just turn in "good luck" stats every time they take the hill.
I'm off of Lauer. I mean, the Dodgers know how to win games; they get the most out of players, yadda yadda, but you can't actually survive in the bigs with a single-digit K-BB%. Of course, that doesn't mean we like the Dodgers to win behind Kyle Freeland, who the Dodgers know very well and are projected to destroy, but I like the Rockies to score some runs.
This time, Colorado has more homers hit on the road than at home. Bettors might not be aware of these stats. Coors Field really isn't the best for home runs — the runs just come from reduced strikeouts and a lot of extra base hits are helped by that large outfield. So the Rockies can go deep on the road even more so than they can do it at home.
For that reason, I like the Rockies team run total. The righties, particularly, are in a very good spot against Lauer, who's given up a .332 xwOBA and has a pathetic 11% K% against them this year. He's about the easiest guy to make contact against in the league when you're a right-handed hitter.
So give me some hits bets on Tyler Freeman, Hunter Goodman, Cole Carrigg, and Kyle Karros. I like these Rockies righties. I think they'll pile up some knocks tonight and exceed expectations.
Picks: Kyle Karros 1+ Hit (-180), Rockies Over 4.5 Runs (+105)
Anderson's MLB Picks and Predictions for Monday, July 6
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- Brandon Marsh Under 1.5 Total Bases (-150)
- Brandon Marsh Under 0.5 Hits (+175)
- Phillies/Royals Under 8 (-105)
- SGP: Jax 5+ Strikeouts, Jax Over 14.5 Outs (-110)
- Astros/Nationals Over 10 (-110)
- SGP: James Wood and Yordan Alvarez HR (+900)
- Juan Soto 2+ H+R+RBI (+115)
- Mets Moneyline (+110)
- Shane Drohan 5+ Strikeouts (+133)
- Padres moneyline (-114)
- Blue Jays/Giants Under 7.5 (-105)
- Kyle Karros 1+ Hit (-180)
- Rockies Over 4.5 Runs (+105)
