Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Kev Mahserejian has that job for Friday, June 12.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Detroit Tigers Moneyline (+108)
- New York Yankees Moneyline (-104)
- Roki Sasaki Over 15.5 Outs (PK)
Tigers @ Guardians Pick
Jack Flaherty takes on Tanner Bibee to kick off the division matchup between the Tigers and Guardians. While Jack Flaherty has a significantly worse ERA (5.31) than Bibee (4.09), Flaherty is a much better SP across the past month.
- Flaherty from March 28 to May 1 – 22.7% K, 17.7% BB, 5.38 xERA, 5.91 xFIP
- Flaherty from May 6 to June 7 – 29.6% K, 5.3% BB, 3.90 xERA, 3.14 xFIP
Despite similar production against right-handed pitching this season, the Tigers are also hitting better in recent games, thanks to the return of Gleyber Torres and Kerry Carpenter.
Detroit has the 12th-best offense in the past two weeks (114 wRC+), while the Guardians have the third-worst (85 wRC+).
The Guardians sit 7.5 games higher in the standings this year despite just three more runs in their differential. Meanwhile, the Tigers are 7-3 in their past 10 games, while the Guardians are 3-7. These teams are not as far apart as they seem.
Pick: Detroit Tigers Moneyline (+108)
Yankees @ Blue Jays Pick
Ryan Weathers takes the mound for the Yankees today, and that is a problem for the Toronto Blue Jays — they are the fourth-worst offense against left-handed pitching this season.
They should be returning lefty-masher Alejandro Kirk to the lineup, but still may be without center fielder Daulton Varsho, a rare lefty with reverse splits.
Furthermore, Trey Yesavage takes the mound for Toronto, and that could be a problem given recent starts. Yesavage has allowed 11 walks in his past three starts (17 1/3 IP), with only 15 strikeouts.
He is also struggling at home this season. He has a 4.57 ERA at home (.304 wOBA allowed) compared to a 1.71 on the road (.260 wOBA allowed).
The Yankees have the fifth-best offense against RHP this season and can feature a lineup loaded with up to seven left-handed hitters.
- Yesavage vs. LHH – 11.2% K-BB, 4.44 xFIP
- Yesavage vs. RHH – 18.7% K-BB, 3.87 xFIP
Even without Aaron Judge, the Yankees should be able to handle business against their division opponent.
Pick: New York Yankees Moneyline (-104)
Dodgers @ White Sox Pick
Roki Sasaki is a new pitcher in recent weeks — he is hitting higher pitch velocity, striking out more batters, and walking fewer batters, while going deeper into games.
- Sasaki from March 30 to May 11 – 33 2/3 IP, 5.88 ERA, 5.77 xERA, 5.03 xFIP, 1.63 WHIP, 9.6% K-BB
- Sasaki from May 17 to June 5 – 24 1/3 IP, 1.48 ERA, 2.24 xERA, 2.29 xFIP, 0.74 WHIP, 26.7% K-BB
Forget an improvement, Roki Sasaki is one of baseball's best pitchers in the past three weeks. The Dodgers' pitching lab may have its masterpiece, despite Sasaki entering the majors as one of baseball's top prospects last season.
Sasaki appeared lost as a starting pitcher for the past year and a half. He has success in the postseason as a reliever, but struggled to sustain high-end performance.
These gains appear real, and he will have an opportunity to display them in Chicago. The White Sox offense is still formidable after the loss of Munetaka Murakami to the Injured List. However, they are much better against LHP (113 wRC+) than RHP (104 wRC+) this season.
The White Sox do have a new addition this week in their top-five prospect, Braden Montgomery, but the offense as a whole is still weaker without Murakami.
Sasaki has amassed at least 16 outs in four of his past six starts and will be relied upon for a deeper game today. The Dodgers have pitched Jack Dreyer and Alex Vesia on back-to-back days, while Will Klein and Tanner Scott have pitched twice in the past three games.
Ideally, the Dodgers will keep Sasaki out there for as many outs as possible to lighten the load on their bullpen.
Pick: Roki Sasaki Over 15.5 Outs (PK)
Kev's MLB Picks and Predictions for Friday, June 12
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Detroit Tigers Moneyline (+108)
- New York Yankees Moneyline (-104)
- Roki Sasaki Over 15.5 Outs (PK)
