We have a 12-game slate today, starting early with Mets vs. Rockies at 5:40 p.m. ET and closing with Padres vs. Giants at 9:45 p.m. ET.
Our experts have analyzed the matchups and found great options for Monday.
Below are five expert MLB picks and predictions for today's slate of games.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 5:40 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 7:45 PM | |
  | 8:10 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Zerillo's Mets vs Rockies Best Bet
By Sean Zerillo
Tomoyuki Sugano is going for the Rockies today, and David Peterson is slated to be the bulk guy for the Mets. The Mets are going to use an opener in front of him with the bullpen relatively fatigued.
There is something broken with David Peterson. I don't know if it's mechanical or what it is, but there's just something off. This is a guy who, when their new pitching coach got brought in a couple of years ago, changed his delivery to that more sidewinding type of profile and was really successful.
For whatever reason now, even though the ground ball tilt is still there and his underlying indicators haven't fallen off dramatically, the actual results have. Again, watching him, it seems like something is just broken.
Clearly, by using an opener in front of him, they're trying to figure out ways to put him in better situations to make him more comfortable.
Sugano is a guy we were looking to fade in any venue coming into the year. He has actually pitched a little bit better for the Rockies, seemingly, than he pitched for the Orioles, but his barrel rate is still near 13%,
This is a guy who should give up hard contact, carries a below-average strikeout rate, and has an ERA of 5.50 against a surface ERA around 5.00.
I would expect Sugano to start getting hit harder going forward; the question is whether the Mets' offense is capable of piecing anything together against him.
I believe they're moving the start time up for this one due to weather, but it's going to be fine when they're actually playing. Temperatures are going to be in the 70s at first pitch. The wind is blowing in, but not so dramatically that it should really have an impact on the game.
I would make this game around 11.25 runs and bet the over up to 11 at even money. You could have gotten 10 or 10.5 last night, and it’s still plenty within range today considering we are below the key number of 11.
I am down on both of these starting pitchers; I have Sugano rated 131st out of about 160 and Peterson rated 91st, and I think you can downgrade him even below that.
On top of it, you have the bullpens. The Rockies are coming off a series against the Braves where they couldn't stop giving up runs, and Antonio Senzatela, Tanner Gordon, and Jimmy Herget should all be fatigued or unavailable today.
They only have four rested arms, and it’s the same for the Mets. Tobias Myers, Brooks Raley, Luke Weaver, and Sean Manaea are all coming in with some concern—maybe not Manaea, but the other three, including their main long reliever.
I think we get a lot of runs here later as opposed to earlier in the game, but over 10.5 up to 11 at even money is one of my favorite totals on today’s slate.
Pick: Over 10.5 (-110)
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Sean Paul's Red Sox vs Tigers Moneyline Pick
By Sean Paul
In a year of disarray, the Red Sox took another tough loss on Sunday to the Astros. They now have a 13-21 record and a 3-4 record since firing Alex Cora.
Taking the ball in the series opener is flamethrowing southpaw Payton Tolle. Tolle began the year in the minors but provided a spark to the Red Sox with a strong six innings, one-run showing with 11 strikeouts against the Yankees. He followed that up with a dicey three-run outing in 4 2/3 innings against Toronto.
The Tigers are right in the mix for first place in the AL Central, tied with the Guardians. In this series, the Tigers are playing in Detroit, where they boast a 12-3 record this season.
It must feel nice to have a back-to-back CY Young, like Tarik Skubal taking the ball every fifth day.
However, he hasn't been as dominant this year. He maintains a very strong 2.70 ERA with a 3.19 xERA and a 2.16 FIP. Teams are hitting Skubal harder this year, as he sits in the 31st percentile in xBA, hard hit rate, and 36th in average exit velocity.
The Red Sox are certainly a mess, but Skubal might be a bit fade-worthy here with Boston sitting as +194 underdogs. He's a brilliant pitcher, but the hard-hit numbers make him more susceptible to a rough outing than he was in the past two seasons.
Plus, Tolle is a monster. I expect him to shut this Detroit offense down with his high velocity four-seamer.
Pick: Red Sox ML (+194)
Read Paul's full Blue Jays–Twins breakdown here:
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Brewers vs Cardinals Over/Under Best Bet
Chad Patrick has one of the lowest strikeout rates in the league this season, with just a 5.14 K/9 rate. Most of the time, when a pitcher isn’t missing bats, they rely on inducing soft contact on the ground to survive.
However, he doesn’t really do that either. He sits in the 17th percentile in ground ball rate and the 35th percentile in hard hit rate. So, he is not striking guys out and is allowing hard contact in the air. Seems problematic.
We have already seen Patrick regress towards his expected indicators recently (2.57 ERA vs. 4.27 xERA), and I expect that to continue.
The Brewers don’t rely on home runs but get on baes at an elite level. They generate walks, don’t strikeout and take a high-contact approach. Once on base, Milwaukee relies on speed and savvy base running to generate runs.
Kyle Leahy has struggled a bit with his transition to the starting rotation, holding a 5.52 ERA through his first six starts. He has allowed at least two runs in every outing, and his expected ERA is even worse at 6.01.
Opponents have a 50% hard hit rate against Leahy, and while he does a good job of mostly keeping the ball on the ground, hitters are crushing him.
St. Louis almost takes the opposite approach at the plate than Milwaukee, but it has worked for them. The Cardinals rank fourth in the league in home runs this season. They are very aggressive at the plate, looking to jump on pitchers early in the count. Their two young stars, Walker and Wetherholt, have provided a power surge to this lineup and have them right in the thick of this competitive NL Central.
Both of these pitchers have concerning xERAs and struggle to strike out hitters. These two offenses are both top 10 in runs scored and have found a variety of ways to produce runs.
It will be 75 degrees with winds blowing out at Busch Stadium on Monday night. With two good base-running teams, friendly hitting weather, and a whole bunch of balls being put in play, we should see plenty of runs on Monday night.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-115)
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Dodgers vs Astros Prop Pick
By Jon Anderson
The Dodgers have been without Mookie Betts for several weeks already, and they're getting a career-worst year offensively from Shohei Ohtani. And yet, they're 21-13 and having no trouble carving up the competition on their way to another division title.
They'll send one of their three aces, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, to the bump tonight to take on an Astros team that can hit (top five in the league in run scoring) but hasn't been able to pitch a lick (league-worst ERA near six!).
Sharing the rubber with Yamamoto is Steven Okert, at least to begin the game. Okert's a left-handed reliever who has maxed out at 1.2 innings this year.
The Astros bullpen has given up 101 earned runs in 140.1 innings this year. That's a 6.48 ERA (note: that stat looks at non-starters who have pitched, not necessarily a strict stat just on their bullpen). It's a horrible pitching staff and a horrible bullpen.
Because of the mishmash of pitchers the Astros will throw out there tonight, we can't really zoom in on any particular matchup for the Dodgers' bats.
Let's deal with the data we know about. I expect the two walk rates featured in this game to trend north. That's Yamamoto and Yordan Alvarez.
We can also take advantage of the fact that Yamamoto will be facing a severely right-handed lineup in this game. That's a slight boost in K% for him.
Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto Over 1.5 Walks (-114)
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White Sox vs Angels F5 Angle to Target
The Angels and White Sox have both been bottom-10 offenses vs. RHP since the start of April.
The White Sox tagged Jose Soriano for a couple of home runs in his last start, but they were both wall-scrapers.
He's back home, where he's allowed 1 earned run all season. Davis Martin is emphasizing a cutter this season.
He's not going to maintain an ERA below 2.00, but his xFIP and SIERA are in the mid-3.00s. The new arsenal has made him more effective.
Pick: F5 Under 4 (-125)
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Sean Zerillo's Full Action App Card Today
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