It's Thursday, and you know that means daytime baseball. Our experts have gone through today's 9-game slate to offer you the best picks.
Below are five expert MLB picks and predictions for today's schedule.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:05 PM | |
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 3:40 PM | |
  | 3:45 PM | |
  | 6:10 PM | |
 | All Day | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Braves vs Nationals ML Prediction
Our own Sean Zerillo projects an edge on the Braves moneyline for this matchup
While the consensus line sits at -135, Zerillo projects Atlanta around -144 for this game, representing a 1.7% edge against the market, which our system tags with a C grade.
Also, the number of bets and percentage of money show increasing support for the Braves heading into this afternoon's first pitch.
The Braves are 9-4 on the road this season, the second-best mark in the National League just behind the Reds (10-3).
Meanwhile, the Nationals are the worst home team in the NL with a 3-9 record, which is a big reason why they already trail Atlanta by six games in the East.
The Braves are on a roll, having won eight of their last 10 games, and they haven't lost a series all year.
Atlanta has already won two out of three in this series and will look to add another win against Cade Cavalli.
The Nats starter sports a dangerous 1.73 WHIP and will face the second-best offense in the majors, as the Braves have a 121 wRC+, only trailing the Dodgers (133).
Pick: Braves ML (-132 or Better)
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Brewers vs Tigers Over/Under Pick
If any team can find a way to steal a couple of runs against Tarik Skubal, it’s Milwaukee.
Skubal’s strikeout rate has dipped a little bit this year, and the Brewers rarely strike out anyway. They are extremely patient at the plate, are elite at generating walks, and then run the bases better than any team in the league. They lead baseball in stolen bases, and if Skubal gives them any slight opening, they are more effective at turning that into runs than any other team.
Detroit’s offense has been significantly better at home this season, averaging 5.2 runs per game with a .823 team OPS at Comerica Park. Greene has really gotten going at the plate, batting .429 with a 1.175 OPS over the last week, to go along with McGonigle continuing to crush the ball. Carpenter has also clubbed two home runs this week and looks like he has found his power stroke.
I understand Skubal is Skubal, but 6.5 is an extremely low total. For starters, Sproat has only made two starts this season, and he allowed seven runs in one of them. The Tigers could hit this total by themselves.
But the Brewers are the best in the league at playing small ball and finding ways to manufacture runs. If they can find a way to squeak out 2-3 runs against Skubal, or do damage against the Tigers' bullpen, this total should go over.
Read Ianniello's full Brewers-Tigers preview here:
Pick: Over 6.5 (-138 or Better)
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White Sox vs Diamondbacks Top Prop Edge
By Action PRO
PRO projects Davis Martin for 3.0 strikeouts in the White Sox matchup against the Diamondbacks this afternoon, giving us a solid 15.4% edge against the market when compared to his current prop line of over/under 15.5, which is good enough to mark the Under with an A- grade in our system.
At this value, let's fade him today on his strikeouts line against Arizona.
Pick: Davis Martin Under 3.5 Strikeouts (-106 or Better)
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Dodgers vs Giants Best Bet
While I'm a big Tyler Glasnow fan, I think we have to fade the Dodgers right now. They're struggling at the plate, while the Giants are playing their best baseball of the season.
With Logan Webb on the mound, I love getting San Francisco at a +130 price.
I know most are hesitant to take a team to sweep a series, especially against the best team in MLB, but this is the case where we're getting a good price on a home dog with their ace on the mound.
Read Ammirante's full Dodgers-Giants breakdown here:
Pick: Giants ML (+130 or Better)
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Yankees vs Red Sox F5 Pick
By Matt Trollo
Based on several weather sources, the consensus forecast as of late Wednesday night is for temperatures in the mid to upper 50s, with a 7-10 mph wind blowing either across the field towards the right or slightly in from the left field corner/out towards the right field corner. It feels like slightly pitcher-friendly weather either way.
John Libka is a close-to-neutral pitch caller, leaning just slightly hitter-friendly, if at all.
Considering Fenway is the third-most-positive run environment in the league according to Statcast (3-year rolling), with a 109 Park Run Factor, we should still expect it to remain at least slightly positive when weather factors are considered.
Many people don’t realize it’s also a poor power environment, at least as far as home runs are concerned, slightly worse for LHBs (87 HR Factor) than RHBs (90).
While Payton Tolle has real prospect pedigree, Cam Schlittler is, by far, the superior pitcher in this game, perhaps by even a run or more, and with the better matchup. Tolle has a much wider range of outcomes, both for this season and for this game, but the projection is far more average than Schlittler's.
The Red Sox do have a decent defensive edge (especially if Narvaez catches), while the Yankees may hold a slight base running edge, though a lot of it depends on if some of their struggling hitters can even reach base.
I give the Yankees a slight bullpen edge both in terms of projections/performance and availability.
The market must feel comfortable enough with Tolle’s likelihood because most books have already posted a game line as of this writing. just a bit below where I make it around -160.
However, DraftKings is one of the very few books offering an F5 line this early, with the -140 price well below my threshold. I’m comfortable enough that the Red Sox won’t be throwing someone better than Tolle, even if it’s not him, to recommend a play at that price. Schlittler is the main component here, along with Yankee offensive superiority.
I would rather have confirmation on Tolle and the weather before considering the 8.5 total, but would lean slightly towards the under if forced to decide right now. One consideration could be the Red Sox under their team run total of 3.5, but that doesn’t leave much room for error in a tough park.
I’m aligned with the market on Schlittler’s strikeout prop at 6.5, priced slightly towards the over.
For now, we’ll just look for the Yankees to bring home the F5, but I’ll post any additional picks for this game on the app.
Read Trollo's full Yankees-Red Sox analysis here:
Pick: Yankees F5 ML (-140 or Better)
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Sean Zerillo's Full Action App Card Today
Need more picks for Wednesday's action on the diamond? It's always wise to see what our guy Zerillo is betting on!
If you haven't already, make sure you download the Action Network app and sign up for an Action PRO subscription:
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